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Day 4 looks a lot more straightforward, with one selection per race, and really struggling to dig out a forecast, never mind a tricast. This will no doubt lead to some very bold Tricast/Trifecta selections on Saturday
1540 Maybe not the best sphere for Enniskillen, and he’s short enough, but not the strongest race of the week, and he’s worth a modest win bet to start the day off. Wouldn’t be the first time a horse has performed well at a couple of races at this meeting, so fairly hopeful.
Bet – Enniskillen (Win)1620 Normally the type of race that I’d get stuck into, but just struggling a little. With Davy Russell on board, I’m hoping that Horendus Hulabaloo can get back on track after getting stuffed last time. Long break for him, and I thought at the start of the season he’d progress well. As easy to rule him out, as make a case for him, but happy with his current price, and happy also to take the risk.
Bet – Horendus Hulabaloo (Each Way) and work permitting, one to lay in running.1655 Again, no strong opinion, but I’ll take a chance on Cresswell Breeze, who would have went close last time at Cheltenham, but for falling close home. Happy with how the jockey is riding this week as well.
Bet – Cresswell Breeze (Each Way)1730 I’m a big fan of Vroum Vroum Mag, and I’ll be very disappointed if she can’t win this with the allowance. Having said that, Fethard Player, looks a tad underrated, and at 33’s, I’d be more than happy to bet him each way, in the hope he nabs second. I don’t think MTOY, Identity Thief, or Sempre Medici are as superior to him as the market would suggest, and I’m strangely confident he’ll get 2nd. I’ve already had a few quid bet. This type of confidence will only end in tears lol
Bet – Fethard Player 33’s (Each Way)1805 Jett has been slow off the mark, but he finally seems to be getting the hang of things, and after winning over this trip, he followed up with a great effort behind the very decent Sutton Place, over a trip that would have been sharp enough. He’ll be my biggest bet of the day I reckon, and already had a few quid on him too.
Bet – Jett 16’s (Each Way)1840 In a race where I’ve no strong opinion, I’ll chance a few quid each way on Alamein. His last run suggests he might just come up short, but hopeful of a place here.
Bet – Alamein (Each Way)1910 Out on a limb here, but thought I seen a glimmer of hope earlier in the season from Bright Tomorrow. Not planning to go mad, but I’ll have a go, and how much will depend on previous results.
Bet – Bright Tomorrow (Each Way)1945 Paint The Clouds normally runs his race, and he’s looked solid enough this year, including an eyecatching run at The Festival. He was also subject of a good few quid bet for The Bet365 Gold Cup, so he may just have been showing a bit at home. Interesting then, that he swerved that race, and providing the rain stays away, I could see a second big prize of the week for Warren Greatrex & Sam Waley-Cohen.
Probably should have asked this earlier but hopefully you don’t think I have invaded your thread this week. I have started at least one Punchestown thread myself in the past with little response but I think it does warrant a bit of chat.
Yesterday was much better and I think I got most things right. So that’s 0 winner, 1 winner and 2 winners. It will probably take a miracle for that sequence to continue.
The opening race was as expected difficult low grade but very competitive. The gambled on Joshua Lane clearly needs to jump a good deal better to win any race.
The second race was full of dodgepots. I was big on Bright New Dawn as a youngster but he hasn’t really progressed. It was hard even to know what was his correct trip. Yesterday he looked a different horse but I wouldn’t take short odds about a repeat.
Quantitativeeasing won pretty easily. I know it isn’t easy but it would be nice if someone could occasionally pronounce his name correctly. He is a full brother to Asian Maze, the dam of Cup Final. Great day for that family. Ballyboker Bridge appears to have a mind of his own.
Alpha Des Obeaux was the one I got badly wrong. This was a very weak Grade 1 and although well backed he has ran abysmally. It grates a bit when people talk about Morris as a great target trainer when he sends one out to perform this badly.
Cup Final probably saved the week. I could see him making progress but initially thought it was a place at best. Then with the long wait on the photo I was beginning to think dead-heat thoughts. It was a very strong ride. I think At Fishers Cross needs something a little easier just to build his confidence.
Douvan completed the treble but what is he actually achieving in beating up the same few horses over and over again? He had a much easier task than the others taking on all the Festivals. The second might have been a shade closer without the rain.
Missy Tata bolted up (second ran well) and gave a little boost for the juveniles.
Invitation Only got the job done and looks a promising staying type for next year. There might have been carnage had Blast Of Koeman got up as I have been backing him all season including when he was backed from 25/1 to 6/1 only to prove unrideable. He needs to go right-handed and this looked like a stone improvement.
Be back later with today’s thoughts.
Good luck.
I am out all afternoon today so have only had a couple of each way bets Bobby.
SAMBREMOUNT and GUITAR PETE
EMILY GRAY and DEFINITE RUBY
JETT
So can only jonah you once Bobby!!
Good Luck !!!
First of all a big thumbs up for the ATR coverage. Sadly, there are people out there who think they can only cover the rubbish. Personally, I wish we had a reversal and they covered all the big meetings.
On to today and we have further confirmation that Punchestown don’t like opening with a bang. A pretty obvious swerve. Such a poor standard you would think someone could quite easily plot one up for this.
Similar to yesterday the second race is a competitive handicap but this time there are several runners with an upside. I have chanced Full Shift and Phil’s Magic at double figure prices. I am very keen on Bekkensfirth (hope he is still with us) so for me Full Shift’s Kempton win is the best form on offer. Hopefully, the rain hasn’t scuppered his chances. Stamina would be the concern for Phil’s Magic.
The mares handicap looks ultra competitive. Emily Gray is the class act but I suspect this might be one race too many. Bonny Kate looks more favourably weighted but not keen on the jock and the point and fire tactics might not be that easy to execute in this race.
Question marks about everything in the Champion. At least we should get a better idea about Vroum Vroum Mag. No bet but I would think My Tent Or Yours should have too many gears although Walsh might try and mess the pace about making it difficult for him to settle.
The market suggests Jers Girl will make the most her allowance. I think this year’s juveniles might be pretty good. I have gone with O O Seven each-way and saved on the favourite. Of the others A Toi Phil turned in a very tame performance at the Festival and Lift The Latch looks the part but didn’t look as he stayed last time.
Had what I hope will be an each-way bet to nothing on Koshari last night. I was impressed with Three Wise Men on comeback but fear the ground might have gone against. He could be the best of Bilboa’s offspring but most have preferred quicker conditions and the sire is Presenting.
I would normally be having a go in the bumper but this looks more than tricky enough to avoid. Is 7/2 value about a horse who consistently finds one too good? Think I will be watching the ex-pointers, Monalee who wasn’t given the best of rides last time and Chu Chu Percy who chased home Minella Foru’s brother before winning easily last time.
There doesn’t seem any market confidence but hopefully On The Fringe can make it 5/6 at Punchestown. No bet.
Thanks Soldier
Excellent, I hadn’t even noticed the draw……..I’ll definitely have to give it some serious thought now
Not at all stilvi, the more chat about Punchestown the better as far as I’m concerned. Always good to get some visitors in here.
I did a big reply there to your points, and lost it, I just hate using my phone for this.
Main thing was what a win for you with Cup Final, and always good to hear a horse singlehandedly pay for the week.
Yeah, no complaints about there coverage here, never had too many issues with them.
Yup, first race is poor, and doesn’t really fit in with any festival, never mind Punchestown.
Best of luck with all your selections today, hope it’s a profitable one. I had a long look at Monalee as well, and your mention might just be enough to force me into a forecast.
O O Seven must have a chance, thought he looked a winner waiting to happen before.
Good luck.
I’m a bit like Raymo, I’m going to be on the move this afternoon so won’t see
any of the races. I have picked one out, much the same as yesterday with Cup
Final it’s one that I always thought was going to do really well but hasn’t quite,
with a couple of exceptions, lived up to it. I’ve stolen one of Raymo’s picks
in GUITAR PETE, at 20/1 with PP 1st 4, I hope he can do a Cup Final for me today.
I’ll watch him later this evening to see how he gets on..Best of luck guys, and thanks Bobby for letting us invade your thread
over the last couple of daysSame here guys, no chance of catching any of the action at work today, it’s been a bit mental
Betfair being down has been a total pain in the ass……though might have saved me a few quid in a couple of races.Just home in time to see Jers Girl’s race, looks like O O Seven did you proud there stivi, and well done Raymo with Definite Ruby
First of all a big thumbs up for the ATR coverage. Sadly, there are people out there who think they can only cover the rubbish. Personally, I wish we had a reversal and they covered all the big meetings.
Yeah, no complaints about there coverage here, never had too many issues with them.
Yup, first race is poor, and doesn’t really fit in with any festival, never mind Punchestown.
Best of luck with all your selections today, hope it’s a profitable one. I had a long look at Monalee as well, and your mention might just be enough to force me into a forecast.
O O Seven must have a chance, thought he looked a winner waiting to happen before.
Good luck.
Another pretty good day. Two winners from just the three races bet in.
I think it might be best to gloss over the first race although to be fair the 13yo winner showed plenty of zest and you could imagine him returning again next year.
Avant Tout travelled like the best horse and looks progressive. Phil’s Magic probably travelled like the second best but didn’t get home. Full Shift ran in snatches and was ultimately disappointing. Headgear required or enough for the season?
Not sure we found out as much about Vroum Vroum Mag as I thought we might. That is unless you believe Identity Thief is a proper Champion Hurdle horse. My Tent Or Yours was very weak in the market and ran a pretty lifeless race.
Jer’s Girl didn’t jump that great but at the weights she had a ton in hand. O O Seven has been quite busy but did well to finish second. Lift The Latch should make a decent novice chaser.
Koshari needs to brush up his jumping but showed a decent attitude to settle the issue.
I think Codd made the difference in the bumper. Not sure why the jock on the second thought he needed to change his whip hand when he appeared to be closing? Chu Chu Percy was never in contention but did make a bit of late progress. He will need a much stiffer test of stamina.
Good to see On The Fringe round off the day. His jumping probably made the difference.
Well done Stilvi, 2 out of 3 is pretty good going.
Phil’s Magic certainly caught the eye in the second, and he looks like one to keep in mind.
I thought going into the race that Vroum Vroum would win, but I also thought she would win a lot easier, and not quite sure, like yourself, what to make of it. Identity Thief got closer than I thought, and to be honest I didn’t expect that much from My Tent Or Yours anyway.
Yeah, as I said earlier, O O Seven ran well, and he really is a likeable type, but she’ll probably always be too short for me as a betting proposition, but really impressed with Jer’s Girl, and she just looks to have bags of potential.
I thought Monalee was going to do the business, and was a good shout. I’ll definitely watch out for him as well. He would have won but for Codd definitely.
As for my day, well back down to earth after the first 2 days. I was far too busy at work to watch the first 4 races, so probably the perfect time for me to have Betfair crash.
I haven’t even seen Races 1 and 3 yet, and certainly don’t see the need to watch Enniskillens race. It was only a small win bet, and I doubt I’d learn much from watching it.
Horendus Hulabaloo was never in it, in the second, and it may just be that the Mouse Morris horses have went quickly out of form.
Cresswell Breeze was a small return each way, but was only a small bet, so didn’t really make a dent in things. Thought long and hard about adding Definite Ruby, but I wanted to keep it simple today, and it cost me badly.
Fethard Player ran a very decent race for a 33-1 shot in the big one, and he wasn’t far way at the end. No complaints though, and he should be able to land a decent pot next year.
Worst result of the day for was Jett. Even when he made his move, I wasn’t convinced, and his jumping was very sketchy, and he was well beaten in the end. I think it’s time to accept that he might not be as good as I hoped. Still, he might be perfect for a handicap next year, possibly back here.
Alamein was a very small bet, and though he ran well enough, he never looked like taking a hand at the business end. He slipped on the bend, and got rid of his rider when in third, but even that close to home, I can safely say he wouldn’t have placed.
Bright Tomorrow was very poor, and I got him badly wrong, nothing much else to say about him.
In the last, Paint The Clouds, jumped badly to the left throughout. I’d love to blame the late rain for his performance, but even jumping aside, he just didn’t look good enough.
Not a great day then, with only 2 out of 7 placed, so with only 1 of them giving a return, safe to say I’ve had better days.
The one silver lining though was Betfair crashing, and it saved me a right few quid on Horendus Hulabaloo, Jett & Fethard Player. I had put all my bets with the books on in the morning, and planned to go heavier on these 3 on Betfair, with the usual angle of laying them back. They were all decent prices, so fancied my chances. Having watched the races now, it’s quite clear I’d have struggled, as they never looked like being a decent price “in running”. Even when Jett made his move, I doubt he’d have shortened up enough for me to profit.
Not too disheartened though, as 3 profitable days out of 4 is not too bad, and hoping to do better tomorrow.
Last day of the thread then, and despite it being easily my second most profitable season, I would love to get rid of that chunky minus figure, or at the very least make a dent in it.
Ok, here goes
1430 Newmarket
Line of Reason, Steps, Sole Power
50p Combination Trifectas1510 Punchestown
The Job Is Right, Thunder and Roses, Tulsa Jack, Forever Gold
40p Combination Tricasts1535 Uttoxeter
Summery Justice, Katkeau, Al Co, Sego Success
40p Combination Trifectas1550 Punchestown
Rock On The Moor, Keppols Queen, Jennies Jewel
50p Combination Tricasts1700 Punchestown
The Mooch, Pleasant Company, Wrath of Titans
50p Combination Tricasts1735 Punchestown
De Name Escapes Me, Chesterfield Avenue, The Romford Pele, Sky Khan
40p Combination Tricasts-£1482.2
Thanks Graham
It’s been good to have you and the other guys on here, really like The Punchestown Festival, and always good to exchange views and see other peoples fancies.
Well, final day of The Punchestown Festival, and final day of the thread.
I’ll wrap up the thread tomorrow night, but first things first, on to Saturdays action.
Very happy with how the weeks went, and if I could make a profit, 4 days out of 5, I’d be delighted. Unfortunately working again, but hopefully won’t be too hectic, and I’ll be able to get to see most of it. I certainly hope Betfair doesn’t crash again……I may require it for some of these.
1435 Very definitely one to avoid I reckon. Quantitativeeasing looked in superb nick when winning on Thursday, and I don’t see any reason in this line up for him not to win again. I’ve had my win off him though, and he’s very short, so I’ll quit while I’m “ahead” with him. It won’t stop me cheering the old rascal on though.
Bet – No Bet1510 The season didn’t quite go to plan for me with The Job Is Right. I had him down as one for Aintree, but he didn’t even get an entry. He can have his jumping issues, and may even be prone to a bit of temperament, but he’s also got plenty of decent runs to his name in this type of contest. The step up in trip looks sure to benefit him, and after backing him at a decent price over hurdles this season, I’m looking for another good pay day from him. Since winning The Irish National last year, Thunder and Roses hasn’t achieved much this term, but with Katie Walsh back on board for the first time since that Fairyhouse win he really appeals at a big price. Probably needs some help from the handicapper, but I’m willing to risk him.
Plenty of dangers in there, not least from Folsom Blue, who was in the process of running a big race at Ayr, but I’d be very wart of Tulsa Jack, and Forgotten Gold as well.
Bet – The Job Is Right & Thunder of Roses, both each way, and potentially to lay. Still undecided as whether or not to have a small interest on Tulsa Jack or Forever Gold.1550 I thought Limini was very poor last time, and I think Slowmotion could be the bigger danger to my main fancy, Rock On The Moor. I’ve bet her at 16’s Antepost, and happy to leave it at that with her. I’ll have an each way stab on Keppols Queen, who’s an attractive price, and could easily make the frame.
Bet – Rock On The Moor 16’s EW Antepost, Keppols Queen ew, and bet to lay.1625 Hoping or a big run from Apples Jade, but at that price, happy to sit it out.
Bet – No Bet1700 I’ve had some decent returns from The Mooch this year, and in this company, I give him a real chance. Really fancy him to at least make the frame. This looks a good handicap for Pleasant Company to start out in, and he can’t be left out here at all. Think the horse belongs in the better staying handicaps in the near future. I’ve had a prize like this in mind for Wrath of Titans all season, and with a handy few pounds off, from a more than capable jockey, today could be the day.
Bet – The Mooch, Pleasant Company, Wrath of Titans, all ew, and bet to lay.1735 Last race I’ll bet in as far as the thread is concerned, and it looks very easy to work out
JP has got a couple near the head of the market, but it’s his De Name Escapes Me, and Chesterfield Avenue that appeal the most to me. The prolonged break for De Name wouldn’t concern me, and beforehand he looked very decent as well. Chesterfield wasn’t entirely disgraced last time in decent company, and to be honest, he looks perfect for this. Both these JP runners look overpriced. Sky Khan has ran well at Aintree and Cheltenham, placing at both festivals, and the trainer has a decent record with her Irish raiders. Finally, The Romford Pele. Ran with credit in The Coral Cup, and he should arguably have finished closer. Connections were reportedly unhappy with that ride, and at 28’s, with Davy Russell on board, he looks massive. Trainer has already landed a handicap here this week.
Bet – De Name Escapes Me, Chesterfield Avenue, Sky Khan, The Romford Pele. All ew, and usual bet to lay. If I have any joy during the day, either at Punchestown, or with winners at other meetings, then I’ll have a proper go on this race, to bow out in a blaze of glory, or more likely in a minefield like this……a damp squib.I’ll definitely sit the last 2 races out.
Betfair being down has been a total pain in the ass……though might have saved me a few quid in a couple of races.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.