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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/1353/newcastle-aw/2022-06-25/811531
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/northumberland-plate/winner
Trueshan looks like bring the headline horse here, and even with the welter burden, I can see him running a big race.
I’ve had an early bet though, and it was from last years winning yard, Sir Chauvelin. Bet a lot of this yards runners, but he’s one that’s passed me by a little, but he likes it round here, and he looks way overpriced.
Definitely like his chances enough to have a wee Antepost, and apologies for this, took 40’s which now looks to be gone. Plenty of 33’s about though, and that’s still a good looking price to me.
Sir Chauvelin 40’s
Lot of dead weight for Trueshan to carry with 10st8lb.
I’d seriously considering booking a top jump jockey so that ten eight can be all muscle and no lead.
Jonjo O’Neill won the Ebor on Sea Pigeon in similar circumstances.
Sir Chauvelin on the same mark as when a length third in the Queen’s Prize.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I must have missed something here but why is Trueshan lumbered with 10-8? I thought ten stone was the maximum in handicaps, excluding penalties.
I haven’t looked at the race conditions, but, if it’s a 0-110, with a normal top weight of 9st12lb, maybe that’s what they do to an entry with an OR of 120?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"With these heritage handicaps there is no ceiling for ratings. Like Ian said the extra get’s added to the 9st 12lb.
I discovered that last year when backing him for this thinking he would be a certainty for it.
An early(ish) dart at Soapy Stevens 18-1 ew. In form and doesn’t look handicapped out of it.
Same here Mike, took 25’s last week. Just hoping participation isn’t in any doubt as his price seems to be moving around up and down a bit recently. Him and valley forge at 8-1 will do for me.
That heritage handicap rule is pretty daft. Surely, the highest rated horse should carry 9-12, the new ten stone, and everything else go downwards from there. If that means more horses running from out of the handicap, tough. 🤷♂️
Daft or not, that’s the answer to your question, Gladders.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’d imagine the Heritage rule is because of what you said Gladiateur – if he was running off 9-12 rated 120 everything from Pirate King down in here would be running out of the weights, makes a bit of a mockery of the competitiveness of the race. I can’t see him winning this personally, its not the weight physically its the fact I don’t think he’s well handicapped off 120, and most of that rating is on the basis of turf form with plenty of give in the ground, he handled this fine last year but he’s not as good on it is he and I’d be sure something which has been aimed at the race will be better handicapped. I think he’s a terrible price for win purposes although I can see him running into a place.
Had Sir Chauvelin as a possible for this for a while now. Had a win bet on the exchanges when he got an entry and was thinking about the 40’s on Monday but somehow waited for an EW bet on him.
Totally hates very soft ground so you can forgive that last run, but i will give him the benefit of the doubt in saying he was given too much to do as opposed to being a non trier at Kempton. Close like
33’s 6 places
Also plumped for Sir Chauvelin each way at 33s with Bet365, 6 places; just hope Newcastle doesnt get too much rain between now and Saturday.
Bet only placed in last hour, but 365 are the stand out price now; most other firms are at 18s or 20s.
Best of luck to all
Summer’s Knight 20/1 e/w 6 places with bet365. A horse very much on the up last season. Can be excused his last run on the back of an 8 month break and was kindly dropped a pound for it.
Fancy Geremia, who was second to Summer’s Knight at Yarmouth last July, to win the consolation Vase. 10/1 very fair.
Big Handicaps are usually win by horses well ahead of their mark and I couldn’t say Trueshan is well ahead of 120.
Btw, Hollie Doyle’s minimum riding weight is 8st – Trueshan will have up to 36lb of dead weight in lead in his saddle cloth.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’ll be lured in by one of the more exposed horses in Island Brave. Benoit claiming 5lbs helps and he’s running off 98 which isn’t bad before considering BLS’s 5lb. 4th and 5th in this in previous years he always seems to be thereabouts in these big handicaps. Even at Ascot last time, he ran well, having not had room at an important time when the tempo started to increase. For me, a stayer needs that time to find his gear, and to have to sit and wait wasn’t ideal, for all when he got the gaps he wasn’t ever winning. At least it proves he’s still capable. Meydan looks to have not been great but then he still managed 5th behind Manobo..
Worth a chance at 20/1 even if it’s more a place bet.
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Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Island Brave is my backup here Jack. Agree that he’s more of a place bet, but I’ll stick with the win, as I’ll be topping up Sir Chauvelin to the seven places (and at this point naming my price). Was very happy with my original 40’s on him. I’m not so happy now.
I think Island Brave was very respectable at Ascot, and should run his race.
Island Brave 20’s
Sir Chauvelin EW 7pls/40’s
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