The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Northumberland Plate 2022

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Northumberland Plate 2022

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 47 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1603391
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13906

    Entries…..

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/1353/newcastle-aw/2022-06-25/811531

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/northumberland-plate/winner

    Trueshan looks like bring the headline horse here, and even with the welter burden, I can see him running a big race.

    I’ve had an early bet though, and it was from last years winning yard, Sir Chauvelin. Bet a lot of this yards runners, but he’s one that’s passed me by a little, but he likes it round here, and he looks way overpriced.

    Definitely like his chances enough to have a wee Antepost, and apologies for this, took 40’s which now looks to be gone. Plenty of 33’s about though, and that’s still a good looking price to me.

    Sir Chauvelin 40’s

    #1603394
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4711

    Lot of dead weight for Trueshan to carry with 10st8lb.

    I’d seriously considering booking a top jump jockey so that ten eight can be all muscle and no lead.

    Jonjo O’Neill won the Ebor on Sea Pigeon in similar circumstances.

    Sir Chauvelin on the same mark as when a length third in the Queen’s Prize.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1603551
    Gladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2409

    I must have missed something here but why is Trueshan lumbered with 10-8? I thought ten stone was the maximum in handicaps, excluding penalties.

    #1603553
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4711

    I haven’t looked at the race conditions, but, if it’s a 0-110, with a normal top weight of 9st12lb, maybe that’s what they do to an entry with an OR of 120?

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1603573
    botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5443

    With these heritage handicaps there is no ceiling for ratings. Like Ian said the extra get’s added to the 9st 12lb.

    I discovered that last year when backing him for this thinking he would be a certainty for it. :negative:

    #1603579
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4587

    An early(ish) dart at Soapy Stevens 18-1 ew. In form and doesn’t look handicapped out of it.

    #1603592
    Chivers1987
    Participant
    • Total Posts 905

    Same here Mike, took 25’s last week. Just hoping participation isn’t in any doubt as his price seems to be moving around up and down a bit recently. Him and valley forge at 8-1 will do for me.

    #1603610
    Gladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2409

    That heritage handicap rule is pretty daft. Surely, the highest rated horse should carry 9-12, the new ten stone, and everything else go downwards from there. If that means more horses running from out of the handicap, tough. 🤷‍♂️

    #1603615
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4711

    Daft or not, that’s the answer to your question, Gladders.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1603672
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4587

    Valley Forge ew 5 places

    #1603676
    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 423

    I’d imagine the Heritage rule is because of what you said Gladiateur – if he was running off 9-12 rated 120 everything from Pirate King down in here would be running out of the weights, makes a bit of a mockery of the competitiveness of the race. I can’t see him winning this personally, its not the weight physically its the fact I don’t think he’s well handicapped off 120, and most of that rating is on the basis of turf form with plenty of give in the ground, he handled this fine last year but he’s not as good on it is he and I’d be sure something which has been aimed at the race will be better handicapped. I think he’s a terrible price for win purposes although I can see him running into a place.

    #1603695
    botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5443

    Had Sir Chauvelin as a possible for this for a while now. Had a win bet on the exchanges when he got an entry and was thinking about the 40’s on Monday but somehow waited for an EW bet on him.

    Totally hates very soft ground so you can forgive that last run, but i will give him the benefit of the doubt in saying he was given too much to do as opposed to being a non trier at Kempton. Close like :unsure:

    33’s 6 places

    #1603697
    Wilts
    Participant
    • Total Posts 400

    Also plumped for Sir Chauvelin each way at 33s with Bet365, 6 places; just hope Newcastle doesnt get too much rain between now and Saturday.
    Bet only placed in last hour, but 365 are the stand out price now; most other firms are at 18s or 20s.
    Best of luck to all :good:

    #1603706
    TakeYourTime
    Participant
    • Total Posts 361

    Summer’s Knight 20/1 e/w 6 places with bet365. A horse very much on the up last season. Can be excused his last run on the back of an 8 month break and was kindly dropped a pound for it.

    Fancy Geremia, who was second to Summer’s Knight at Yarmouth last July, to win the consolation Vase. 10/1 very fair.

    #1603707
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4711

    Big Handicaps are usually win by horses well ahead of their mark and I couldn’t say Trueshan is well ahead of 120.

    Btw, Hollie Doyle’s minimum riding weight is 8st – Trueshan will have up to 36lb of dead weight in lead in his saddle cloth.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1603793
    jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3503

    I’ll be lured in by one of the more exposed horses in Island Brave. Benoit claiming 5lbs helps and he’s running off 98 which isn’t bad before considering BLS’s 5lb. 4th and 5th in this in previous years he always seems to be thereabouts in these big handicaps. Even at Ascot last time, he ran well, having not had room at an important time when the tempo started to increase. For me, a stayer needs that time to find his gear, and to have to sit and wait wasn’t ideal, for all when he got the gaps he wasn’t ever winning. At least it proves he’s still capable. Meydan looks to have not been great but then he still managed 5th behind Manobo..

    Worth a chance at 20/1 even if it’s more a place bet.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1603870
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13906

    Island Brave is my backup here Jack. Agree that he’s more of a place bet, but I’ll stick with the win, as I’ll be topping up Sir Chauvelin to the seven places (and at this point naming my price). Was very happy with my original 40’s on him. I’m not so happy now.

    I think Island Brave was very respectable at Ascot, and should run his race.

    Island Brave 20’s
    Sir Chauvelin EW 7pls/40’s

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 47 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.