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” Are you sure that’s not just blaming others for you choosing the wrong horses to back, droffats?
If non-triers are as widespread as you claim, then how do you explain other punters making a good profit from purely studying form and backing value selections (ie without any inside info)? ”Come on, Ginge. That can’t be a serious question.
As an assertion, it’s ” There can’t be that many non-triers because punters make money in horse racing ” and it’s sieve like in construction.
There are masses of them, some for ” legitimate ” reasons like schooling, gaining experience, learning a horse to settle etc and then there’s the gambling aspect where a horse’s handicap mark is protected or dropped…and you obviously know all that.
The successful punters learn about these horses or read the form correctly through experience and then anticipate when the chips are going down, or they concentrate on strike rates / trainer form / jockey bookings etc which show a profit over time.There is no such thing as “legitimate” non-triers, Mark.
The things you describe are not non-triers.
Schooling: If a horse had a bad fall last time out and lost confidence or isn’t yet a good jumper. It would be legitimate (next time out) for the jockey’s primary objective is getting the horse jumping safely/not taking any chances. However – if by doing this the jockey still has a chance of winning – then the jockey will try and win the race. Indeed, with a horse that’s lost its confidence it can be argued the best chance of winning the race is precisely that… getting the horse jumping safely in rhythm.
When a horse needs to Gain Experience, riding the horse in amongst the pack is a legitimate tactic; giving the horse experience of racing amongst other horses. Jockey may also delay his challenge in order not to be in front too soon (minimising the chance of idling). However, if the horse is still in a position of winning then the jockey will try and win.
If the horse failed to settle last time out, then it is legitimate for the jockey’s primary objective is “learning a horse to settle“. Indeed, if that were not the primary objective (not settling) the horse would stand much less chance of winning anyway.
…And running horses in races where a mark is likely to be protected or even dropped – is not against the rules. It is not against the rules to run in a race where conditions do not suit the horse… as long as the jockey tries to win the race given those particular conditions.
So – yes, trainers use races for “schooling, gaining experience, learning a horse to settle” and run in races where the handicap mark is unlikely to go up (“protected”) and/or more likely to be “dropped”. But the vast majority of these are still “trying”. ie In the unlikely event of the horse proving good enough in those conditions the jockey will still try and win.
Value Is EverythingDo you have a formula for spotting non-triers on the flat?
Preparing to hit the ground running on the flat, need help to eliminate non triers.
Woolfie’s back.
Yes, my formula is… bet in races where there are no non-triers.
Value Is EverythingWoolfie, you previously informed us that before every race all the jockeys get together in the weighing-room to sneakily decide which one’s going to win (love it when they do that in The Stewards Cup, btw).
So I have to ask: What’s the point anyway?
Mike
I’ve never known there to be so many short priced losers and it’s only June. Are they non-triers or are they beaten by rivals who having not tried in previous races have been given the go ahead to go and win? If a favourite is prominent in the opening stage of a race, lay it in running, they never win. The market is no indication that confidence is drifting, non triers are backed right up to the off. Keep winning.
Only just spotted this thread.
Whether a horse is trying or not, as with so much in life, is down to economics and business decisions.
If you want to be sure you have backed a trier, only bet in Group races.
At this level prize-money and potential stud values render the betting irrelevant to connections and such races are dominated by the Uber wealthy owners and successful trainers.
At the other end of the scale you have Class 5 and 6 handicaps and the low-grade maidens that feed them for qualification purposes.
Struggling trainers, journeymen jockeys, and occasionally owners out to make a quick buck by landing a gamble.
Trainers at this level cannot live off training fee margins and prize money percentages alone and some of the owners can barely afford to keep their horse in training.
If the trainer wants any quality of life at all economically, he has to land a gamble or two during the year to keep himself and his operation ticking over and his owners sweet.
So you get the quiet runs out the back in Maidens, the runs over the wrong trip/going, the wide passage, the slow start, the steadily-falling handicap mark until….today’s the day.
The money goes down, the horse gets a ride, and they hope and pray someone else doesn’t touch them off so they can all eat for the next six months.
If they win, or go close, up goes the handicap mark and the quiet runs resume, maybe for up to a year, until its time for another go.
In all seriousness, given prize money levels at the bottom end, how else do people think trainers stay in business?
I wouldn’t even call them crooks or cheats – they are desperate people with no other option to stay in operation.
This is UK horse racing – at the bottom end – if you want to be sure you’re on a trier, stick to the likes of Royal Ascot.
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