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Are you sure that’s not just blaming others for you choosing the wrong horses to back, droffats?
If non-triers are as widespread as you claim, then how do you explain other punters making a good profit from purely studying form and backing value selections (ie without any inside info)?If the game is as bent as you claim, then (taking in to account bookmakers mark ups) how come each price wins pretty much the amount of races they can be legitamately be expected to?
Value Is EverythingGinge you make a lot of valid points but to my eyes it is obvious that a number of horses in any given race are unable to win due to either fitness or unsuitability of ground/ trip/ course or style of running.
Admittedly this doesn’t make them all non triers but some of them are. For example if a horse is a hold up horse normally then the best or easiest way to get it beat is to front run or to show it a lot of daylight. Now this may be a jockey following orders or just bad luck. I regularly see horses running on late having been subject to minimal pressure and after looking into its previous form I note said horse has raced prominently when it has performed well . IMO this is a good example of a non trier and it immediately goes in my notebook.
Because of the amount of coverage nowadays of racing and the ability of punters to actually watch races as opposed to having to just listen to extel commentaries IMO this gives punters a better chance of making judgements regarding a horses capabilities.
And as I have already said plenty of horses daily are given “easy” rides to allow them either a good handicap mark or to prepare them for future success.
And to reply to your comment to droffats regarding horses running to form if the majority of horses ran to form then bookies would go skint and every favourite would win!
As far as value is concerned the word value is very very subjective!! To quote and example last Saturday I thought the value was Definitly Red at 4/6 and Double Shuffle at 11/4 because the other two could not win and I was betting to 87 per cent !! Others may consider this to be crazy and would say value is a 33/1 shot that they think should be tens!! Like I say subjective!!
For example if a horse is a hold up horse normally then the best or easiest way to get it beat is to front run or to show it a lot of daylight.
This goes to the heart of my point. Just because a horse has been ridden differently does not necessarily mean it’s not trying. My point was that anyone actually looking beforehand at the race’s make up, can see how much pace is likely to be in a race. eg When I looked at the decs for the Ladbrokes Trophy, every runner bar one ran their best races either from the front or racing prominently with a clear view of the front. So jockeys/connections were faced with a dilemma. Either go to the front/prominent and hope others don’t force you to go too strong a pace? Fastest way from A to B is going an even pace, so by going too fast lessens their chance of winning. Or change tactics and hold their horse up? I do think those in the front of the que went too hard last Saturday. But a lot of those changing tactics in the Ladbroke Trophy were never happy either. So it’s a judgement call, do you go to the front with a far greater risk of going far too quick for your own benefit? Or change tactics and run a far greater risk of your horse not enjoying it and therefore not running to form?
I regularly see horses running on late having been subject to minimal pressure and after looking into its previous form I note said horse has raced prominently when it has performed well . IMO this is a good example of a non trier and it immediately goes in my notebook.
I don’t often see non-triers, Raymo. I see horses running in races where there’s been too many pace horses and some haven’t liked being held up, not wanting to put it all in and making late progress when the jockey has given up. The amount of times I see punters believing a horse a non-trier when really in most paces it’s a case of the horse’s pace and/or temperament.
And it’s exactly the same with your scenario, Raymo. Yes, when horses are natural hold up runners then they should be held up if possible. But what happens when every runner in a race likes to be held up? Something has to front run and they will all want to be held up. In NH racing you’re quite likely to get those adamant of getting a hold up ride getting left at the start (another time punters believe their horse is a non-trier). Whenever there’s little or no pace horses it’s highly likely the front/prominent racers, either getting a soft lead or at least a slowish run race where able to kick for home from an advantageous posi’; being difficult to peg back. However – as you rightly imply – for that prominent position to be an advantage the horse needs to settle… So does the jockey make sure of settling and likely give away many lengths in a slowly run affair – ie having far less chance of winning? Or does he race more prominently than usual – yes, risking being too free – but also knowing if settling will have positional advantage/far greater chance of winning?
And connections are allowed to try different tactics anyway. It’s not necessarily that they aren’t trying. eg Horses who’ve made the running for victories will sometimes get a hold up ride in the prep before Cheltenham. But is it a non-trier? Or do connections know that if running at Cheltenham with a 30 runner field the horse is highly unlikely to get his own way up front? ie Seeing if different hold up tactics can work before the big day… Or sometimes choosing different tactics on the big day itself knowing there’s too much pace in the race, only to see the hold up tactics not working.
Value Is EverythingI didn’t say that the majority of horses ran to form, Raymo. Far from it, in any race a minority of horses will run to form. Sometimes just one or two in a 20 runner race.
I don’t know the exact figures but: What I said was each price wins pretty much the amount of times it is expected to win. eg Most 4/1 shots will not run to form and therefore not win, but around 18% will win (18% being a fair 9/2 chance plus a bookies mark up 2% = 20%… and as 20% = 4/1 that’s the price offered). So bookies 4/1 shots win the amount of times (around 18%) they’re expected to win. Same with all prices, around 48% of Even money shots and 5% of 16/1 shots etc.
Yes, any particular price being called “value” is a subjective decision by the individual punter. Nobody knows for sure which horse/s is/are value in any individual given race. However, in reality consistently sucessful punters (those that have a better overall percentage of winners than average winner’s price) are able to make an overall profit because they are both good at analysing form and (just as importantly) are good at converting form in to chance (identifying value).
ie:
Unless his/her staking plan is very wrong, then a punter with a 20% strike rate at average winning odds of 5/1 will show a good profit over time. Ditto a 50% strike rate at average winning odds of 6/4 or 10% SR at average winning odds of 14/1 etc. These punters can all be said to have found overall value.Unless the staking plan is very lucky, a punter with a 20% strike rate at average winning odds of 3/1 will show a defecit. Ditto a 50% SR at average winning odds of 4/5 or 10% SR at 8/1. So although these punters may sometimes get value in any individual bet, he/she can be said not to have achieved overall value.
My point is that many punters achieve overall value by purely studying form (without any inside information at all) and backing what they believe is value. This would be absolutely impossible if non-triers are as widespread as you believe them to be; because a large number whose form suggests their fair chance is say 20% (fair 4/1) will actually be close to 0%… And that in turn means every other horse in the race/s would have a greater chance than its available price. If non-triers were widespread then Prices would not win the amount of times they’re expected to win. ie It would be impossible to find overall value/profit.
It is no coincidence that those that believe non-triers are widespread do not make an overall profit (do not achieve overall value).
Value Is EverythingFor what it’s worth, I watch racing day in day out and there are plenty of ‘ non triers’in low grade affairs.
I will not play in these sort of races as even after many years, I just get a handle on the form. Anyone who makes a profit from these sort of events are far better than me and I salute themI stopped betting in maiden hurdles & bumpers due to non-triers and the unknown nature of them.
Especially common in Ireland now where the top end is so strong that rarely is a horse over 6/1 trying. Of course, you can say they are inferior hence the price but the sheer position of the horses at the start, standing 15 lengths out the back tells you otherwise.
Handicappers are forever not fully off to get a mark for a certain target, that’s simply not trying to win. I do see it as part of the game though and i see it as being fine if you adopt the Prescott/AJ Martin tactic of running at the wrong trip etc. That way at least you have a very valid reason when the horse increases performance by 20lbs when it wins.
I stopped betting in maiden hurdles & bumpers due to non-triers and the unknown nature of them.
Especially common in Ireland now where the top end is so strong that rarely is a horse over 6/1 trying. Of course, you can say they are inferior hence the price but the sheer position of the horses at the start, standing 15 lengths out the back tells you otherwise.
So why stop backing in them. If you can discount all horses over 6/1 this will give a much smaller field to analyse. Instead of picking the winner from 16 horses you can pick the winner from say 3 or 4.
Because even then some of the sub 6/1 are not off, are not fit and a lot of the time there’s a Mullins/Elliott hotpot that’ll win at near evens anyway. It’s just not worth the time and effort.
You can’t always discount the > 6/1 horses strictly, but it’s very much a massive surprise when one wins more so in IRE than UK IMO.
So again if the Mullins/Elliott hotpot at Evens wins 75% of the time this sounds like easy money to make if you have the bottle to put decent stakes on these. No “time and effort” required. I sadly haven’t if indeed this is a true reflection of what happens.
Am sure there are more non-triers in lower grades (prize money means it’s even more/very difficult for connections to make a profit without a betting coup). But also, reason why so many horses are in that grade is their temperaments, being difficult to predict/inconsistent and need finnessing to win.
Vast majority of horses I see on these TRF pages described as non-triers can either be easily explained… Or at least have a possible/pobable excuse. “Possible/probable excuse” as in – Yes, it might (and only “might”) be a non-trier, but there are also possible/probable excuses and therefore can not be prosecuted as a non-trier.
Value Is EverythingThis thread is going on and on Ginge LOL
One of my bugbears are that people talk out of their pockets and make excuses when they back a loser but some people myself included generally call non triers when they have seen them and not when they have backed them!!
I do try to analyse why a horse hasn’t performed to form and sometimes they are not allowed to perform to form!! that is when they are non triers IMO. Whether that be by luck or design is open to interpretation.
I am certain people on here and out and about in racing circles will have differing opinions but I am convinced this happens more often than most of us think.
I too have called out non-triers when I’ve seen them, Raymo. On here and on the racecourse, been to the stewards on the day and asked them to hold an enquirey (without success). It’s right to do so when seeing non-triers.
Value Is EverythingI back plenty of non-triers. One was Cracker Factory on Saturday. I’m not saying there was anything untoward, just that the horse couldn’t be bothered on the day for some reason. Probably the weather conditions
If there was nothing “untoward” then Cracker Factory is not a non-trier, Homer.
Cracker Factory had been on the go since April. ie Racing throughout the Summer and Autumn, that’s eight races with on average one run a month. There’s bound to come a time when any horse needs a break.
Cracker Factory had already made one notable error and struggling home straight, before a bad mistake 3 out – knocking it out of the ground – finished him off. It’s only good jockeyship not to give the horse a hard race once no chance of of being in the money.
Value Is Everything
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