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Pru,
My reading of his article does not say that at all Pru.<br>He provides his evidence in the form of the "Bounce" and the number of big chases the Irish have won in recent times, having the buying power to corner the best of the market.<br>The speed ratings all have going allowances within them and are not repeateable on differing ground and distances. KS is a bit on the scrawny side so may not do so well on stiff tracks in the soft. KS is competing against many UK horses that are not a patch on the greats of the recent past. Best Mate had speed/ stamina to spare but, similarly, did not need it to win against the weak 3m+ opposition of the time. Not KS’s fault at all on race times but what happens if and when put under real pace pressure if KS will fall or drop back.<br>NM’s opinion is basically that he will.
The other factor is the overdominating Cheltenham factor and maybe KS connections are making hay now as any worthwhile opposition from Ireland / France is hopefully yet to run a real race until the New Year.
If my memory serves me – never guaranteed, of course – Mordin raved abut Ouija Board from the get-go, though in his later comments I think he suggested that her form was best over 12 rather than 10, because of the way she wound up her pace – though depending on the track maybe.
He is prone to virtually write off a horse, if it doesn’t return a fast SF on his ratings, and sometimes he’s had to eat his words. ÂÂÂ
There’s nobody’s comments I await more eagerly than his, but its does seem rash to rubbish a horse because its wins so far were relatively slow.
It would be so easy for him to say, "Personally, I have some reservations about just how good it is, and will have until it returns a very fast time, before I go overboard", and leave it at that. But I’m not complaining. If it’s to draw attention, fine.  He has a living to make, and I’m getting free info.
There’s something about Kauto Star’s performaces that make me nervous and unenthusiastic, but he could scarcely have won more easily or impressively the other day.
Then there is the judgement of Nicholls and the connections generally. It seems to me that a lot of peole who post here are prone to underestimate highly-motivated, committed and focused professionals. In my experience, their insight and expertise tend to be awesome. ÂÂÂ
It’s as if they feel excellence on the part of a trainer or a jockey were somehow an affront to their own qualities. How different from the pros. Potts and Van der Wheil seem to positively covet the views of others, not necessarily even experts or pros.
Judging from the context in which it is used, the word "docile" when applied to a man, tends to have a pejorative, insulting overtone. But, actually, it means, "teachable".
Many years ago, I got talking to probably one of the wisest people I’ve ever met, a Polish cafe prorietor in Reading.
During WWII he was a pilot, and he told me that when he wasn’t flying he’d always keep his ears open to pick up tips on the quirks of the different aircraft they could be required to fly at any time, since one day it might save his live. And it did on more than one occasion.
<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 10:46 pm on Dec. 6, 2006)
From his own website:
Kauto Star (41) went and proved me wrong by winning the Tingle Creek Chase. And I do wish he’d run a fast time because then I could finally wave the white flag and join the bandwagon. But I’m afraid I just can’t find a way to massage his speed rating into being anything more than just another of the good Grade 2 class performances he’s put up in the past.
I honestly don’t understand why the British racing press seem so keen on Kauto Star. The top three Irish chasers Kicking King, War Of Attrition and Beef Or Salmon all routinely run six to twelve lengths faster over three miles according to my speed ratings. And Kauto Star is not alone in winning Grade 1 chases over three miles as well as two. War Of Attrition and Kicking King both did that ages ago and nobody made much fuss about it.
Maybe I’m wrong. Perhaps Kauto Star will romp home in the King George and the Gold Cup and prove himself a true Champion. But right now all I can say is that if Kauto Star is a Champion he’s the slowest one I’ve ever seen.
It’s as if "speed" can only be judged on how quickly a horse gets from the start to the finish of a given race, and that this is precisely equivalent to "ability".
************************
Grimes, Mordin, along with other clock watchers, gets it right when he homes in on a horse that has shown itself to be a better horse than generally imagined by recording a genuinely good time. I would not deny that.
(Edited by Prufrock at 10:31 pm on Dec. 6, 2006)
Wow. What would that make Exotic Dancer, who lost 20 lengths at the start againt Pak Jack in one of his earliest French races, and sauntered past the field to win.
Yes, it’s that that I like so much about his site, Prufrock.
Very fast times, after all, while not being everything, can be very significant in determining a horse’s capacity in relation to others.
When significant other factors coincide in good class races, that knowledge can be a goldmine, can’t it. Even in terms of breeding. Mares that break the track record at Ascot, Newmarket and other Grade 1 tracks tend to produce fast horses, themselves.
Mordin has a theory that, if a horse doesn’t run a fast time after x races, he’s not fast.
For this reaason, horses that won their early races without really being extended (e.g. Dalakhani) are regarded as being "overrated" by the public.
It’s a reasonable theory and may be useful in flat racing.
However, I’m sceptical that speed figures really mean that much in NH. There are so many variables that are hard to assess.
In particular, with horses finishing so strung out, most don’t give their all in the finish. Most winners could have found a few lengths if they had needed to .. but there’s just no point.
In Kauto Star’s last couple of races, he could have won in a faster time if he was pushed. This would suggest that the speed figs he ran were (well?) below what he’s capable of.
Mordin has a methodology for NH that’s based on speed figures and part of that methodology must be to oppose heavily backed horses that haven’t run a big speed figure.
So, I don’t see where the "absurdly contrarian, day is night, different for the sake of being different" point of view is about KS.
Unless he’s deliberately massaging his speed figures to underrate the horse, Mordin’s chosen methods must compell him to give an unspectacular rating.
Funny, I was thinking about KS on Saturday morning and noting that he’s never:
– won a King George<br>- won a Gold Cup<br>- won any race at the Cheltenham festival<br>- won any race at the Aintree festival<br>- won any race at the Puncheston festival<br>- beaten Kicking King<br>- beaten War Of Attrition<br>- beaten BoS in Ireland<br>- beaten the top French chasers <br>- won a chase with more than 8 runners
And I was thinking that, although he’s still very young (plenty time to achieve a number of those things) and was very impressive in the Betfair, I’m going to hold off before thinking he’s a worldbeater at 3m.
Steve
<br>Two weeks before his first KG win, at the same age as KS, Desert Orchid hadn’t achieved any of those things either.
And thinking about it, KS hasn’t beaten Man Utd at Old Trafford or Australia in the Ashes either – obviously just a flash in the pan.
AP
Its the old debate
To highlight a horse that has acheived a good time is fine but to dismiss one (which i suppose NM hasnt really) because he hasnt ..is ridiculous. Especially on the jumps
Robert<br>The "best in market being cornered by the Irish" is a rubbish argument in this case and indicative of trying to find some desperate negative trend, without checking facts. KS was sold for a fortume and it wa JP McManus who was outbid
Not that Jp corners the "best in the market" a lot of the time
Then there is the judgement of Nicholls and the connections generally. It seems to me that a lot of peole who post here are prone to underestimate highly-motivated, committed and focused professionals. In my experience, their insight and expertise tend to be awesome
Spot on Grimes. PN and RW are not exactly the types to get giddy and go overboard about any old nag that wins a good one. They tell it how it is. For Ruby to unequivocally say that KS is (seemingly by far) the best hes sat on tells us a helluva lot.
Quote: from apracing on 10:43 am on Dec. 7, 2006[br]<br>Two weeks before his first KG win, at the same age as KS, Desert Orchid hadn’t achieved any of those things either.
And thinking about it, KS hasn’t beaten Man Utd at Old Trafford or Australia in the Ashes either – obviously just a flash in the pan.
AP<br>
Alan,
I wasn’t following racing when Dessie one his first KG, though were people talking of him as the one of the best chasers in 20 years and comparing him to Arkle? I think the argument revolves around the fact that people are hailing him as Champion the wonder horse without really achieving much…
Btw, am sure if DJ were to pitch in here, he would say KS has great chance in the next away game at old trafford…..
JohnJ.
I was there that day (not that that is relevant) but the difference is that his KGV win was a total suprise and for some, was seen as a fluke (as people often feel about races supposedly "stolen" from the front)
he was 16/1 if i recall rightly
I wondered whether he would repeat it myself…
As it happened….
Two weeks before his first KG win, at the same age as KS, Desert Orchid hadn’t achieved any of those things either.
Dessie was some horse, but even he couldn’t be expected to beat 3 horses that hadn’t been born at the time … :)
And thinking about it, KS hasn’t beaten Man Utd at Old Trafford or Australia in the Ashes either
I don’t think anyone will be beating Australia in the <br>Ashes for at least 18 months …
Kauto Star couldn’t have been more impressive in his last couple of races.
And he could well have the ability (and should have plenty time) to knock over a lot of those "hasn’t"s.
(probably starting in a few weeks time)
However, I’m going to wait before I’d be willing to say he’s the world’s current best 3m chaser.
To highlight a horse that has acheived a good time is fine but to dismiss one because he hasnt ..is ridiculous.
I disagree.
If one is going to use a speed figures based approach … which I don’t, so don’t think I’m agreeing with Mordin’s approach … but if you’re going to use speed figures as the basis of your approach, you’ve got to go against horses with low figures.
Think of it like this, you’re looking at a race where the hot favourite has never earned a fig that’s close to figs repeatedly earned by the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourite, what are you to do?
Surely, unless there’s another factor at play (distance, going etc), you’ve got to go against the favourite?
That’s what Mordin is doing.
Now, I don’t agree with the methodology (though, to be fair, I’ve never done research into the profitability of using accurate NH speed figs) but, once the methodology has been chosen, this is surely the only consistent way to go.
Steve
Sure Steve, but it baffles me that people can select or oppose a horse with such tunnel vision
You can weight the factors towards your own prejudices and the actual weighting is the i think the most crucial element
Ok KS has not produced the spped figure that Maudlin likes (although i thought he had run a good time at haydock…but anyway)
But would that outweigh the fact that he won in a seeming canter (taking seconds off presumably) and destroyed the field/ Would it outweigh Ruby’s and Paul’s very forthright opinions about the quality of this horse?
I think not frankly…
Speed is one element (which i dont get over ecited about myself) but perhaps beaciuse ratings take such a lot of work to produce, those doing so get rather carried away with their importance.
But none of this is saying hes the greatest for 20 years yet of course, although my guess is that he will prove to be (injuries permitting)
When we talk about Arkle, we praise his record in winning three Gold Cups, as well as handicaps such as the Hennessy (twice), the Whitbread and the Irish Grand National giving away lots of weight. When we talk about Desert Orchid, we praise his record in winning top class chases from two miles to three miles five furlongs, again often giving away weight; and in winning a Gold Cup when conditions were against him. Both horses carried on winning over several seasons.
Let us hope that Kauto Star proves himself worthy to be mentioned alongside them. At the moment, he has shown only the potential to achieve this status.
I don’t think anyone will be beating Australia in the <br>Ashes for at least 18 months …
True. It’s hard to see Pakistan, India or even South Africa doing it. ;)
Mike<br>
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