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Has anyone got any thoughts on this?
Looking at the easyodds.com website, only Corals and Paddy Power are pricing up this market.
My personal choice is Sammy Lee, I just can’t take to him whatsoever. I have just seen a piece on his on Sky Sports News and he is what I would call a typical ‘cliche’ man. Saying things like, "I just want to do the best I can for Bolton Wanderers Football Club" make me cringe. He is also a terrible talker. By that I mean he talks so fast that you can hardly understand what he is saying. OK, maybe not the main criteria for losing your job lol, but I just cant see anyone having any respect for him to be honest, especially the foreigners who wont have a clue what he is saying.
I think Sammy will find it very hard to attract decent players to the club, in fact so far he has lost more good players than he has bought, and with Anelka possibly on the move then I fear for him. He is not exactly what I would call a man motivator either, whereas Big Sam was very imposing and had a great track record, Little Sam has nothing of the sorts to fall back on as a Manager.
He is best priced 9/1 to be the next manager to lose his job and I will probably be having a punt on that. The favourite is Chris Hutchings but I personally think he will do ok at Wigan. He hasn’t lost too many players and he has bought some very promising players from the Championship, Jason Koumas being the latest.
Of the others, Billy Davies has just signed a 3 year contract and won’t be expected to achieve much at Derby so I think they will be reluctant to let him go no matter what Derby achieve. Gareth Southgate did well in his first season and will probably improve – but the main factor here is that he has the most loyal chairman in football (Steve Gibson) behind him so anyone would be a fool to back Gareth for the chop.
Mark Hughes has done really well at Blackburn and even though there will be more pressure to do better this season, I can’t see him getting the chop unless Blackburn are in the bottom 3 well after Christmas, and by then surely someone would have been given the chop. Steve Bruce might be in a perilous position. Birmingham just about stuck by him last year, for which they were rewarded, but if the Brum start off and stay in the bottom 3 then Brucey will be feeling the heat for sure.
Both Curbishley (West Ham) and Keane (Sunderland) did wonders last season in achieving what they wanted for their respective clubs (avoiding relegation, and getting promoted) and I dare say this will have bought them another season at least despite where they finish in the Premiership.
Another who could be walking the tight rope is Fulhams Lawrie Sanches, though I have a lot of admiration for his managerial ability. He did well with Wycombe albeit at a lower level, but his achievements at Northern Ireland were magnificent. With the squad of players he had, to beat the likes of England and Spain shows how good he can be as a manager. He has bought well so far, including West Broms hihgly promising Kamara and I think Fulham will do better than expected and Sanchez will be safe.
Arsene Wenger is interesting. I can’t see him walking, or can I? Arsenal don’t look to have the strongest of squads and if they fail to establish themselves in the top 4 immediately, then there could be some strange happenings at the Emirates.
It’s impossible to see Sven be the first to lose his job unless Man City lose their first 6 games 4-0 or something. Sven has a great club record but Man City need to strenghen their squad quickly if they are to be classed as ‘certain to avoid relegation’. We all know what Newcastle are like for sacking managers, but once again it’s impossible to see the newly appointed Allerdyce be given any less than a full season to sort things out up there.
I would have to say the likes of Benitez, Redknapp, Moyes, Jol, O’Neill, Coppel and Ferguson are all safe from being the first to lose their jobs, so that just leaves one man, and that’s the special one himself Jose Mourinho. I really don’t want to make a call on him. He is currently best priced 20/1 to lose his job first which suggests the bookies think he is safe, but you just never know what is going to happen down at the Bridge. I just feel if Mourinho was to go, he would have gone by now.
Selections
Sammy Lee @ 9/1
Steve Bruce @ 12/1All the best,
Mike
A cracking analysis Mikky. I’m with you with Sammy Lee. I’ve been looking from time to time on Betfair to see what odds Bolton were to finish bottom – but lots of people must be thinking the same as me and currently they’re only 30’s. (Was hoping for 80/1 +).
Your comments re. Wenger are interesting. True, they’ve not set the transfer market alight (unlike Man. Utd.) – but even without Henry, I suspect the manager knows he’s on the cusp of having a truly great team. They dominated so many games last season and played (at times) such classy football – yet failed to turn that superiority into goals. I can’t believe that they will be so generous to inferior opposition this season. 13/1 with Betfair for the title might seem generous by November.
Keep up the posts Mikky – enjoyed reading them here and on other forums.Many thanks for the comments Insomniac, much appreciated.
Arsenal are a terrific footballing team and Arsene Wenger is probably the best manager in the world when it comes to spotting relatively unknown players and youth players, and then bringing them through the ranks to play some breathtaking football.
It could well be that losing Henry is a blessing in disguise as many times he was the culprit of ‘trying to walk the ball in the net’. Everything seemed to revolve around him and it was if he said to his team mates that he wasn’t going to put the ball in the net unless it reaches him after 20 successful passes, including a back heel and a bicycle kick lol. Now that he has gone I have no doubt that they will still play attacking football and will be more direct, ala Man Utd last season. However, I still think they are probably a season short of gelling as really great team.
Wenger has never broke a contract, which is why he is unlikely to leave Arsenal, but I could just see him using the ‘David Deane’ get out route if Arsenal were to suffer a terrible start. However, I doubt very much they will start poorly and Wenger will be there till the end.
Do you think he will sign a new contract, or do you think he will be gone at the end of the season?
Mike
Excellent stuff Mike. Interesting to see that you concentrate on the same sports that I do – football, golf and horse racing.
I don’t usually look at betting on ‘next manager to be sacked’ odds but I am surprised that Sammy Lee is as big as 9/1. I’ve never had any confidence in him and I think that Bolton achieved what they did because of Big Sam’s motivation skills, style of football etc. I also reckon that if Bruce ( a manager that I do not rate ) does not get off to a good start then his chairman will not give him a second chance.
I think that 12/1 about Bruce is the best bet with Lee also worth an interest. I’ll be logging on to make my bets with PP as soon as I’ve finished writing this.
If I can give my thoughts about Wenger – I don’t think he will break his contract but may go at the end of next season…maybe to Barcelona. I don’t think that Arsenal will be ready yet to do finish in the top 3 next season without Henry.
I can see Tottenham doing really well next season. Jol is doing an excellent job and they will now be even stronger up front with the signing of Bent. Spurs finished well last season and I bet on them about 3 weeks ago e/way at ( 1/3rd the first 2 place odds ) at 12/1 with PP to win next season in the market without Man Utd or Chelsea.
Cheers SC,
Yes I love my football, golf and horse racing, and I dare say the football and golf present me with far more successful bets lol.
I totally agree about Martin Jol, he has been a great signing by Spurs after they went years hiring managers who had previously served the club well (Ardilles and Hoddle etc), and I have to admit they have some fire power up front at the moment with all 4 of Keane, Berbatov, Bent and Defoe still on the books. It’s imperative that they keep at least 3 of them, but if they could keep all 4, and keep all 4 happy, then they will certainly be a force. Huddlestone is a great midfielder also, and with Dawson at the back and Robinson in goal they certainly look like having a very strong back bone, which is very important as you know.
I don’t usually bet on the ‘first manager to lose their job’ markets, but I just think, like you, that Bruce is was too high at 12/1 and Sammy Lee too big at 9/1. Again, I couldn’t agree more about Sam Allardyce being the man that got Bolton ticking. He is a great motivator, and a great tactician by all accounts. He uses all the upto date technology, whereas I am not sure that Sammy Lee will know how to switch a computer on, and I dare say that being part of the successful Liverpool teams of the late 70’s and 80’s then Sammy might resort to some old fashioned training – which we all know is way behind the times now. He just strikes me as a manager who would say "well it worked for us at Liverpool….". I really can’t see him attracting any big names and I think he will struggle to get the best out of his current team. All that adds up to Bolton having a poor start possibly, and Phil Garside is a chairman who would probably act sooner rather than later.
I haven’t had any ante post football bets yet, but I soon will be, so let me know what type of markets you go for, and if anything stands out to you.
Off to the Karaoke tonight – Oh My God, I dread to think……….
Speak later
Mike
Karaoke tonight for you then Mike – Yuck! I like the Japanese but curse them for inventing it.
I actually do better at horse racing than I do at football and golf. My golf profits are slowly improving though and maybe if I listen to your tips then they will improve further
My previous efforts at football manager bets have been quite abysmal really and I was one of the mugs that went on BF and bet against Redknapp going back to Portsmouth when he was manager at Southampton. Another reason to hate Portsmouth……………….. along with the fact that the Devon team I support is Plymouth Argyle. Paul Merson was asked recently on Sky tv why football teams hated going to Portsmouth and he stated bluntly that it was because Portsmouth is a dump. If there is a bigger dump than Portsmouth in England then I’ve yet to visit it.
My favorite method of betting on football is laying teams not to win and I’ve done reasonably ok on it so far. I will be having a few ante post football bets this season but I must state that my previous attempts at making money from these types of bets have not been that good ( 2 profitable bets from 8 in the last 2 seasons ).
I’ve already mentioned my e/w bet on Tottenham to win the Premiership ( without Man U and Chelsea ).
I’ve also bet on Plymouth Argyle to win promotion ( 16/1 ) but I’m more than biased about this bet and it is not a very professional one !! I do think they will do well and if they get in the play offs then I should be able to lay my bet off for a profit.
Division One is a difficult one imo. I have a friend who is a Forest supporter and he has little confidence in their manager so their odds do not appeal to me as value. There must be a question mark regarding Leeds and how much money they will have – again their present odds do not look value imo. Yeovil have lost some good players but also signed some promising ones. Swindon may do better than forecast and quite a few promoted teams have performed good in this league during the last few years. The team that I think may be under-rated are Northampton and I was quite impressed with their football style last season. I’m not confident they will get promoted and I’ll be backing them e/way on a hcap basis which is a style of bet I like in these ante post football markets. I’m waiting for the bookies to put up their odds and I’m hoping they will underestimate their chances.
Division two is simpler imo and is my favorite league for betting on football with the snag being that there is often a liquidity problem on BF when laying teams not to win matches. There are quite a lot of teams in this league who lack ambition imo or teams that seem to try but end up going nowhere…Darlington being the best example. Peterboro must have a decent chance but are no value imo. Clubs that are relegated have a good record of bouncing back when in this league so they must all be respected. I’ve bet on Rochdale who finished last season in great style and Keith Hill has done a good job there since taking over as manager in December last year. At odds of 20/1 ( Champs ) and 9/2 ( promotion ) they look the value to me.
No doubt I will look back at this post at the end of next season and wonder what I was doing
Look forward to reading your thoughts on the best ante post football bets when you have decided them. Good luck.
Swallow Cottage.
An interesting read. I bet mostly on football nowadays, hoping to trade out with guaranteed profit as early as possible. Particularly like laying long-odds on shots before kick-off .
I strongly dislike having any financial interest in the team I support but you could do worse than have a tickle on Chester City in Div Two at over 40’s.
They’ve a new manager (ex-Plymouth by the way – Bobby Williamson) who’s been given a few bob to spend by the long-suffering chairman and has made (by Chester’s standards) some decent signings. His philosophy seems to be the opposite of last seasons manager (Mark Wright), where the players looked like they’d cr@p themselves if they went over the halfway line.
(I ought to add that before last season I tipped Shrewsbury on here, so I’m not exactly "in form" )Cheers Insomniac – I began betting ‘in running’ on soccer games last season and slowly got better at it after a shaky start. I’m hoping to improve this season and any advice that you have would be appreciated – do you stick to english games or bet on the foreign ones as well ( I have Sky and Setanta ). It sounds like it probably pays to not get too greedy.
You’re right that it’s best not to have financial interest in the team that a person supports – it’s a weakness of mine unfortunately. Bobby Williamson did well in Scotland but he was out of his league
( sorry about that one ) when he went to Argyle and made some poor signings. I think he struggled to get the right contacts etc when he came down from Scotland and was not used to the english game. I never rated Mark Wright and it’s interesting that Bobby has made some decent signings – perhaps Chester will be worth a moderate e/w interest in the hcap market which I previously mentioned I liked to do – I’ll look at it when the bookies issue their odds etc. Good luck.Someone mentioned League One and so I rose, Father Jack like from my slumber in the armchair to deliver my third annual pre-season address.
There’s only one team worth backing for League One next year but I won’t abuse your intelligence by spelling it out for you as I’m sure their value is apparent for all to see.
At current odds, I wouldn’t back Forest with funny money, Leeds are clattering downhill like a runaway cart and Swindon? Don’t make me laugh.
Put your money on Dicky Dosh and then put your feet up for nine months. You know it makes sense.
I hope you all took the 9/1 on Sammy Lee
He might even get sacked at half time
3 Down at home after just 30 minutes – oh dear Little Sam, it’s going to be a tough season, that’s if you still have a job that is.
Mike
If Gareth Southgate had a less understanding and patient chairman, I think he would be a strong contender for the chop. Not really my idea of manager material. Ditto Sammy Lee.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
If Gareth Southgate had a less understanding and patient chairman, I think he would be a strong contender for the chop. Not really my idea of manager material. Ditto Sammy Lee.
I’m a Boro fan and I totally agree. A bit like Mclaren was the 3rd or 4th choice for the England job, then Gareth Southgate was exactly the same. Boro tried to lure Sam Allardyce, they even interviewed Martin O’Neill and all last summer they promised to get it right with a big name manager. Then as everyone turned them down Gareth was installed as manager. Now I can’t imagine being 3rdor 4th choice is good for the confidence, but it’s not a good sign.
Believe it or not, there are a few disgruntled Boro fans with the Chairman at the moment. Only 8 weeks ago, ironically when season tickets were on sale’ Gibson promised that during the summer Boro would sign 2 or 3 ‘mouth watering’ players. So far they have bought a reserve from Arsenal, a player from the Championship, and a player who is admtedly a Turkish International, but very few would have heard of him outside of his own country. Hardly ‘mouth watering’
Yes Gibson has been a brilliant chairman for us, but fans are very fickle as you know, and if you promise the fans a top class manager one season, only not to deliver, then the next season promise world class players, only not to deliver again – then people will see that the promises are just an attempt to sell more season tickets.
As for Southgate, I for one am sick of his ‘cliche’ style after match interviews. After Saturday’s home defeat he said he couldn’t have asked for more from his players and he was delighted with the way they applied themselves. What the F*** is all that about? They were leading 1-0 and conceded 2 goals to substitutes, a clear sign that Southgate couldnt tactically re-arrange his team when Blackburn tactically changed theirs.
I want my manger to come out and say "we were crap and I am furious. At 1-0 up and dominating the game we should have made sure we got the points and I will make sure they learn from this"
That’s what I want to hear – not that "we played well and I couldn’t have asked for more".
That’s my rant over lol.
Mike
Jol still 8/1 today. A few more results like last nigth and he’ll be on dodgy ground.
Well done Fulham
Well done Sunderland for grabbing a draw at Birmingham.
Middlesbro were woeful tonight though and I’m glad that Steve Gibson is a loyal chairman as I’d be worried if I was Southgate. Boro will have to play a lot better if they want to avoid relegation.
Again, I couldn’t agree more SC.
Boro were garbage last night but at least they have excuses, but what excuse does the manager have?
With regards Boro’s excuses, arguably their strongest back four would be Pogatez, Huth, Woodgate, Young – yet all four are out injured. There is a lot of experience in that defence, wheras last night our defence consisted of largely very unexperienced players. The strange thing is though, that all these injured players finished their seasons fit, yet all start this season injured
– how does that happen But regarding Southgate, well he doesn’t even look like a manager lol. But last night I was baffled. Downing was playing very poorly, I don’t think he got one cross in the box as he couldn’t even lift the ball – while Tuncay was arguably our best player, or at least he was our main threat. So what did Gareth do? Yes he took Tuncay off and switched Downing to the right wing
It’s not helping the squad that Yakubu is still there either. It wasn’t publicised much, but he actually put in a transfer request 2 days before the season. Personally I believe no club should keep a player against their wishes – it’s not good, but the players have the power these days. Yakubu last night was dreadful, one of his worst performances I’ve ever seen and he clearly has no interest in playing for us. I think you will find him departing not long after the transfer of Mido is confirmed.
Of course, as a Boro fan, I think it will all turn around – but unlike most fans, who think their club will win the legue every season, I am very realistic. The reality is it already looks like being another long slog in the league, with our best chance of success already looking to be in the Cups – and they haven’t even started yet
Like you say SC, at least Bolton got beat, come on Garside, give little Sammy Lee the bullet, if not for your sake, but for my wallet’s sake lol.
Mike
)
( sorry about that one ) when he went to Argyle and made some poor signings. I think he struggled to get the right contacts etc when he came down from Scotland and was not used to the english game. I never rated Mark Wright and it’s interesting that Bobby has made some decent signings – perhaps Chester will be worth a moderate e/w interest in the hcap market which I previously mentioned I liked to do – I’ll look at it when the bookies issue their odds etc. Good luck.
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