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Well, I made a net loss-on-turnover of 2.71% in 2009 which is not good nor pleasing, but nor is it disasterous when viewed over the ‘long term’
Can’t pinpoint what I’ve been doing wrong analysis-wise, but my betting was very on-and-off with the normally busy Jan and Feb light due to cancellations, summer jumps nearly non-existant by choice having decided to spend a summer on gardening leave, and I found it difficult – for reasons I’m not sure about – to ‘get going’ again in the autumn despite having looked forward to it; the concentration and resolve was lacking.
So the resolution will be an attempt at returning to the tunnel-like vision and focus I’d spent years honing. If you’re going to bet ‘seriously’ then you’ve got to give it your all
For what it’s worth Carvills your points 3 and 4 would seem to me the most important – specialising on the exchanges
agree with Drone , had a similar sort of yr , where I just could not get myself going
Specialise,is the key word , know where you have an edge and keep at it
stay away from saturday racing its way too competitive
stay away from big meetings at ascot and york , too many impossible puzzles to crack
stay away from Irish racing , its just impossible to keep track of their form etc
Do not eneter into a bookies shop , trade on a betting exchange , you will not regret that
Keep a record of your bets/lays , it will soon be apparent on the type of event that is yielding the most success
good luck to all this year
Ricky
stay away from saturday racing its way too competitive
stay away from big meetings at ascot and york , too many impossible puzzles to crack
In stark contrast to my tactic for this year of focusing on saturdays and the big meetings more! The better the racing the more chance of finding winners (in my punting experience) and at better odds too.
Also more chance that every horse in every race is primed to run to its best on the big days. Not that i am saying horses aren’t trying other times, just that no horse can be at its absolute best for every single race.
stay away from saturday racing its way too competitive
stay away from big meetings at ascot and york , too many impossible puzzles to crack
In stark contrast to my tactic for this year of focusing on saturdays and the big meetings more! The better the racing the more chance of finding winners (in my punting experience) and at better odds too.
Reet Hard’s drum tuned differently: dance to the beat that taps your feet
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-SHHZ8xpV0
any excuse
Mine is to play more poker and bet less on the horses.
I’ve made five times what i’ve made on the GG’s over the last four years in one year playing poker.
I will continue to work at the trading as well as despite some losses early on, which hurt a lot, it is possible to make a bit of extra pocket money this way.
My only other resolution is to have one or two monster bets this year just for the hell of it. Haven’t found the horse at the right price etc yet.
Aragorn, when you have found your
monster bet please get in touch
I may be able to oblige
down and out in
London-Paris1. Have bigger bets on shorter priced horses on the All Weather. Contrary to the opinions of the Lizard Spotters on TRF, the AW markets are tighter than a gnat’s chuff, particularly Southwell. The crowd seem to be much wiser than the talented individual here and it has taken me ages to adjust to how Southwell has changed. Yukon horses like Brazilian Brush, Mr Funshine and Greenbelt might win every now and again but the losing runs are significant and have a debilitating psychological impact which outweighs the rush of horses like this when they win.
2. Stop being greedy. I can’t resist a double figure price and often back three figure horses. They don’t win often enough for this to be viable – certainly not any more. Instead of studying a race starting at the horse with the highest forecasted price, do it the normal way round.
3. Be more certain before investing. Stop the "might-win" fivers, a significant drain on the bankroll which can quickly become a Noah-style torrent.
4. Have an "anchor" horse. Never go racing unless I have one horse who could pay for the day, one horse I really fancy. Something I used to do as a kid. I’ve lost a lot of money turning up on spec with nothing more than a vague idea and when you race a lot, this is expensive.
5. Consider Exactas and Trifectas. The great books of the late eighties and nineties ruined me here. I bet win singles only (as recommended), am by nature cautious and easily pleased with a small profit on the day and have missed out on so many exotic payouts.
Further to the point I made about backing on heavy ground surely diving in after the break we have just had is nothing short of madness. Any winners will probably involve a large dose of luck.
Don’t back below 2-1
Don’t back at odds greater then 10-1
Win Singles Only
Have a staking plan, does your selection warrant your minimum stake, if not let it pass
Don’t go chasing action
Avoid handicaps with more then ten runners
Don’t bet in bumpers/and sprint handicaps
Enjoy your betting
Shop around for value, the difference between the exchanges and the on course boys is minimal for the horses I tend to bet.
Don’t back horse on the flat after September other then the prestigious group races.
Plus a list of jockeys and trainers that I will never back.
surely diving in after the break we have just had is nothing short of madness. Any winners will probably involve a large dose of luck.
Caution is wise given the likely lack of work and hence race-fitness, but the generally small fields seen thus far in the Chases (particularly tomorrow) are a pleasant surprise punting-wise. Was expecting them to more-or-less fill
Wise words Drone
I do hope you crack
the code.I rather like Aragorn’s
monster bet idea,
it’s not exactly my style
but one thing in its favour
it beats the clockThe ticking clock eats
away your profit,
it becomes your master
and before you know it
you start to look like your master
two hands up
a flat face and
a polished bottom
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Could be worse. He could have been betting in $US ended up looking green and wrinkled
Happy New Year to all.
When reciting my new year punting resolutions, the usual suspects pop up: don’t be swayed by the opinions of others, don’t bet in large-field handicaps, stick to your gameplan for the day – pretty much an overall tightening of discipline.
However, my core focus for 2010 is backing myself. Last year I would estimate 50% of my selections won without a cent on them, including an 80/1 winner in Sydney which I suggested to my parents, who ended up winning thousands. Ok, I got a handsome commission but it’s the principle which tore me to shreds that day.
I was worried about losing and the dreaded sense of inadequacy that comes with it – all normal characteristics of a young bud – but my stats from the latter half of 2009 show I’m no silly mug. Also, a horrendous string of losses can happen to the best of our kind.
So, 2010 is all about instigating self-belief.
Good luck chaps!
- Total Posts 17716
So, 2010 is all about instigating self-belief.
Which, if it’s ever properly achieved, would preclude you from having to make New Year’s resolutions?
There are no rules that make much sense apart from those that involve value and staking.
"Don’t listen to the opinions of others". No – don’t listen to the opinions of others unless they have just given you some genuine insight into why a bet is (or perhaps isn’t) value.
"Never bet at odds-on" – Why not? If someone offered you 10-11 a horse in a match bet that you made a 1-4 shot, why on earth would you not want to have a bet? It is fair enough to consider how much you need to stake on such a bet, but to pass it up?….
etc etc..
For what it is worth, I think the biggest single mistake most punters make is not staking enough on the really good value bets, compared to how much they stake on fair or even negative value bets.
So – my resolution is to try to identify, before the event, which are likely to be the best couple of bets I’m going to have this year – and then to make sure I have attempted to smash the ball well and truly out of the park with them.
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