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Like everyone else…really liked AP’s advice there
My resolution (although adjusting betting strategy should be an on-going thing) is to spend more time studying a few days in advance. Even if i dont make a decision, i find it helps clear the mind for nearer the time. Suprising what occurs to you one day and doesnt register on another.
And must play the laying market more.
CH,
To operate more selectively, try imagining that you have to write a hundred words to explain each bet in advance – no need to actually write them down, although that helps if you’ve got the time and if you do, you have something to look back at later that can prove useful.
You’ll be surprised how often you get to fifty words and realise that you don’t actually have a good argument in favour of the bet. It’s an excellent method for eliminating the ‘action bets.
My own ambitions for 2008 – to make a profit and to win a race with each of the four horses due to run in our colours this year.
AP
Great advice. I force myself before every bet to type into a file on my computer the details of the bet, underneath headings which compel me to list all of the things in its favour (why I want to back it) and the doubts about it; and then to look through my past bets (dating from years back) to see if it has a similar profile to any other horses that I’ve backed/layed and if they won/lost (i.e., I really fancied a bet in a Class 5 hurdle the other day but discovered that the comment from the last time I’d backed in one of those races was ‘never bet in Class 5 hurdles because…’, so I didn’t bother, and the horse in question, Naxox, flopped). This all takes so long that the proposed bet has to be unmissable!
I need to stop chasing. When I back a loser (and its usually due to an impulse bet, and partly for the perverse, briefly liberating pleasure of breaking my own strict rules) – I keep berating myself for making a silly mistake. But I berate myself so much that I start to think the only way I’ll ever return to any kind of emotional and mental peace is to get the money back and then forget about that losing bet. Then I’ll lose again, again and maybe again, because I’m chasing and backing horses that I usually leave alone. And yet I find it easier to handle mentally when I lose £1600 than when I lose £400 (I bet in £400s). If I lose £400 its a mistake, I got it wrong. If I lose £1600, four losing bets in a row, its a binge, a fit of stupidity and self-destruction that can’t be considered in rational terms – and this is easier than just admitting I got it wrong once! And its cathartic, so I can start again ‘properly’ at the end of it (albeit £1200 poorer than if I’d been sensible).
Am i alone in never having had the inclination to "chase losses"?
I tend to keep the punting level most of the time but if anything, will tend to retreat a little after a poor run
Nope, Clive, I’m similarly chastened by losses rather than a chaser of them.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I think that’s the biggest sign of punting maturity- reducing the gambling to almost zero. If you can get to the point of having very few or no "on tilt" days in a year you’ve got close to punting nirvana. It took me a lot of years to cut out the urge to gamble, but a losing day now doesn’t bother me in the slightest- if you met me you’d never know if I was winning or losing.
There is an interesting series in the Post this week where their tipsters give their resolutions to improve their punting in 2010. I found Andrew Barr’s piece today particularly good. Coming off a poor year myself (barely in profit, worst since 2005) I definitely need to change and I wondered if it would be illuminating for more of us on here to share what we’ll be doing differently in 2010. Here’s mine in any case!
1) Organise research better.
A the moment I have various filofaxes, A4 folders and old diaries full of useful and not so useful information about topics like race trends, meeting trends, breeding, systems and so on. I need to collate the useful stuff and put it on the PC in such a way as it can easily be updated year on year- the time for being a luddite has passed.
2)Keep an more organised and accessible race library.
Again at the moment this is haphazard- Sky+ recordings that may or may not make it onto DVDs and so on. I still haven’t grasped the nettle of getting a system like WinTV or just being more systematic at recording the replays onto hard drive or DVD- I need to. ATR replays are just not of sufficient quality and don’t show the head-on.
3. Specialise more
I bet on UK and Irish racing- I think I need to reduce the UK stuff significantly to just the major weekend races and the festivals and concentrate more on Irish jumps where I’m more likely to have an edge.
4. Move away more from traditional fixed-odds betting to Betfair.
This is the most drastic change but I’ve come to realise that using third parties to place bets for me just doesn’t suit me. Far better to find a short one to lay on BF than trying to get non-existent morning prices by subterfuge.
5.Be more selective. Looking back on the year I backed too many horses on tenuous premises of value. I’m making myself write a full reason for each bet in the diary this year to avoid this.Cheered me up no end reading Point 1; thought it was just me. Bought some plastic folders from Tescos yesterday so I can keep a record of each big race [and all the bits of paper floating around] together. Tried keeping everything in a big diary last year but that didn’t work. My New Years Resolution since year dot has been to get better organised. It’s never going to happen.
There is an interesting series in the Post this week where their tipsters give their resolutions to improve their punting in 2010. I found Andrew Barr’s piece today particularly good. Coming off a poor year myself (barely in profit, worst since 2005) I definitely need to change and I wondered if it would be illuminating for more of us on here to share what we’ll be doing differently in 2010. Here’s mine in any case!
1) Organise research better.
A the moment I have various filofaxes, A4 folders and old diaries full of useful and not so useful information about topics like race trends, meeting trends, breeding, systems and so on. I need to collate the useful stuff and put it on the PC in such a way as it can easily be updated year on year- the time for being a luddite has passed.
2)Keep an more organised and accessible race library.
Again at the moment this is haphazard- Sky+ recordings that may or may not make it onto DVDs and so on. I still haven’t grasped the nettle of getting a system like WinTV or just being more systematic at recording the replays onto hard drive or DVD- I need to. ATR replays are just not of sufficient quality and don’t show the head-on.
3. Specialise more
I bet on UK and Irish racing- I think I need to reduce the UK stuff significantly to just the major weekend races and the festivals and concentrate more on Irish jumps where I’m more likely to have an edge.
4. Move away more from traditional fixed-odds betting to Betfair.
This is the most drastic change but I’ve come to realise that using third parties to place bets for me just doesn’t suit me. Far better to find a short one to lay on BF than trying to get non-existent morning prices by subterfuge.
5.Be more selective. Looking back on the year I backed too many horses on tenuous premises of value. I’m making myself write a full reason for each bet in the diary this year to avoid this.Carv,points 1,2,3,4,5, are what you should be doing now anyway!
Looking through your notes in "Daily lays and plays" i can see no reason why you should need third parties to place your bets for you as the cost of paying such folk would leave you well into negative equity on what little returns you are showing! What have you been doing if the above ideas are only just being implemented? My advice to you would be Look ahead,you know enough to know what horses could be placed where,take the big prices on Betfair and play them accordingly! Leave the lower level racing well alone and concentrate on the Big meetings where big Ante-Post prices are available!Having an opinion on a good horse reaps rewards but so does having an opinion on a good horse you think is not,Lay it in running!I will be laying Sizing Europe at short prices in running come Cheltenham because i know circumstances will flatter to decieve him during the race! Good Luck,you need it!Wouldn’t call it a resolution, more an ambition. To get at least One 4 winner Lucky 15 or Yankee up at one of the big festivals this year. Minimum odds 5-1. I could be tilting at windmills but you gotta have dreams! Got 3 out of 4 at Cheltenham 08, 4 out of 4 at Goodwood 08, 3 out of 4 at goodwood 09 so it is possible.
I traded a small loss last year but that was due to many stupid bets so my main aim is to cut out the stupid little bets of under £1 that seem to add up to a lot of £££££ when they all lose. Especially those Yankees or Patents on 20-1+ shots on a saturday or when I am bored on a day off!
My other resolution is to have the cojonas to bet big (to quantify, big for me is staking £50) when something I really fancy comes along – usually happens 6 or 7 times a year, generally in the big handicaps.
Not really resolutions but a few ideas:-
(1) Write down all your bets – a must.
(2) Join in the 4 per person competition – great competition and concentrates the mind on the weekend racing.
(3) Keep jumping bets on heavy ground to an absolute minimum.
(4) Don’t place bets at short odds where your information is limited – tennis is an obvious example for me – the average person does not know the relative fitness/mental capacity of players on any given day.It’s all about discipline for me.
There’s days when I look at the racing and think it’s absolutely dreadful but still have a few bets just for the sake of having a bet. I have already started this, I know it’s been a bit easier this week with the weather, but it’s something I’m gonna stick to, Saturday’s will be different but I reckon through the week won’t be a problem if I don’t strongly fancy something.
I’ve been thinking long and hard about Cheltenham for some time and whether to start putting ante-post on or stick the money in a draw and wait til the bookies go NRNB and I’ve decided on the latter because of the risk if one doesn’t make it.
I’ve told myself that the few bits I save by not having these silly bets through the week and also any bits of winnings I may have until then will go to one side for Cheltenham. I started this last week and have £70 in there already so things are looking good.
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My new years resolution is to back aprentices only and keeping on the right side of Fallon and Moore outside of 2yo company.
One other thing is to concentrate on the big festival type meetings (Cheltenham, Aintree, Leopardstown, Royal Ascot, Newmarket July Meeting, Glorious Goodwood, York Ebor) by way of ante post bets placed on the weekend before these meets commence at NRNB. I already do this at Cheltenham but looking to do this with all big meets.
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March to your own drum – then, if it goes wrong, you know where to look.
Embracing the exchanges and computers a good move imo, carvills.
In 2010 I’d love to do more analysis of Irish Racing. The nature of it makes it difficult to crunch data like I can with UK racing and so much manual work/inputting is very time consuming. But I do think its still largely untapped territory, especially non form book angles…
Change how I bet in April and late October/November, the seasonal switchovers do not suit my method.
UK course bias still holds huge possibilities, particularly distance comparisons between tracks, still thinking about a way to standardise them, hopefully can come up with something useful in 2010.
From an anorak point of view Prufrocks standardisation handicapping is a very interesting area, particularly in rating the better races/horses. Would like to learn more this year.
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