New Tory leader

[IanDavies]

Open video to candidates from Martin Lewis: https://twitter.com/martinslewis/status/1549305060320067585?s=21

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[patriot1]

It’s an early one today with the result due at around 3pm.

Logic would dictate that Sunak and Mordaunt will benefit from Tugendhat’s support base and that what happens with Badenochs supporters in tomorrow’s final ballot will be the deciding factor in whether Truss or Mordaunt faces Rishi.

But when did logic apply with this lot?!?

[patriot1]

And Wilts, have a look at the front pages of the papers on the BBC website every morning and tell me that the MSM is biased against the right.

It was a combination of the newspapers and Boris lies and broken promises that won him the last election.

[moehat]

Tobias Ellwood has lost the whip because he abstained on the vote last night. So the government calls for a vote of no confidence in itself but doesn’t allow any of itself MP’s to vote for it. Is this how democracy works (I think not). Scary.

[IanDavies]

Just petty spite from Johnson, Moehat.

The bloke was out of the country on official business and couldn’t get back in time for that pointless confidence vote.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[moehat]

And he can’t now vote for Mordaunt.

[IanDavies]

Result at 3pm – if Mordaunt doesn’t pick up Tungendhat votes and retain second place she’s toast.

She’s probably toast tomorrow anyway when the Truss/Badenoch right wing vote surely merges.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[IanDavies]

There has been a sudden, substantial, market correction: 2.72 Sunak, 2.86 Truss, 4.2 Mordaunt, 19.5 Badenoch.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Gingertipster]

Unless those Tug’ votes temporarily go to Bad’ in order to get rid of the Truss.

Value Is Everything

[IanDavies]

This is the reason for the shift –

NEW – YouGov Tory members poll

Boost for Truss, bad news for Sunak

Sunak v Mordaunt
Sunak: 37
Mordaunt: 51

Sunak v Truss
Sunak: 35
Truss: 54

Sunak v Badenoch
Sunak: 34
Badenoch: 56

Mordaunt v Truss
Mordaunt: 42
Truss: 48

Truss v Badenoch
Truss: 43
Badenoch: 46

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Gingertipster]

Both Truss and Mordaunt have shortened since yesterday evening.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Looks as though Sunak has a better chance against Mordaunt than Truss.
Could it be some Sunak MPs switching to Mordaunt?

Value Is Everything

[IanDavies]

The gut instinct of the majority of the membership will be to vote against Sunak if a more right-wing alternative is available.

BUT, historically, both the parliamentary and grass roots Conservative Parties are far better at doing what’s expedient to win the next Election.

After this week, if the polls are telling them Sunak is their best hope of a general election the tide may turn in his favour.

Sunak was 1.98 this morning – he went out to 2.72, but is back to 2.48 now.

What people say they will do today is not what they will necessarily do tomorrow if the polls tell them to take another path.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Gingertipster]

Has there been any recent polling for how the UK would vote under each leader?

Once that comes out I think it’ll alter how the Conservative members vote.

Value Is Everything

[IanDavies]

“Could it be some Sunak MPs switching to Mordaunt?”

That could only be tactical IMO, but I wouldn’t rule it out – we will find out at 3pm.

What a bearpit this contest has become.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Gingertipster]

Of course it is tactical.
Many votes in this race are tactical.
If Sunak is seen as certain to get through then some of his MPs can (by tactical voting) choose who they’d rather run against in the members vote.

Value Is Everything

[IanDavies]

I suspect the market correction was driven primarily by this YouGov poll ad it occurred just after it was released.

Be really interesting to see what happens to the Sunak vote today, though.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Author]

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