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The ATR Verdict writer has said this is a cracking renewal of the Neptune. I can’t say I agree but each to their own.
He has tipped Bacardys and feels that the Deloitte form is “Rock Solid”. Only two horses from that race have run since and both were unplaced (Bunk Of Early the Deloitte runner up was tailed off today) so it seems to be jumping the gun to declare the race as rock solid in my opinion.
I started this race at the bottom and worked up. Gordon Elliott has had a dream start to the meeting and Shattered Love won by 13 lengths last time. I have seen her tipped but she was making heavy weather of it when her opponent fell at the final flight and left her clear last time. She had been under plenty pressure for a long way last time and it would have been tight, with the other horse slightly ahead still when coming to grief at the last. This extra distance will suit but does she lack the kick?
Next one up Willoughby Court is doing nicely and took a good jump in the ratings last time. He seems suited by soft though and Ben Pauling has had a generally quiet and quite disappointing season. He looked a trainer on the up last year but just hasn’t seemed to fire this season. I have taken 2pts off for the ground and 1pt for the stable form, meaning he gets passed by despite being a useful prospect for the future.
Skip The Cuddles has won a Bumper and a hurdles race, lightly raced and should stay well but he got a fairly cosy beating from Keeper Hill and is 6 lbs worse off this time, making him hard to fancy.
Poetic Rhythm has landed a couple of races and has some placed form but this looks tough and Feargal O’Brien has only Cap Soliel as a winner from his last 20 runners and there have been some disappointments after having had better form earlier in the season.
Neon Wolf needs no introduction, he’s been favourite for a while now and was backed as if defeat was unthinkable last time. I opposed him with Elgin that day, just as he seemed the value at much bigger odds on the day but it proved fruitless as Neon Wolf dismissed him with ease. Neon Wolf looked that day like he belonged in the Supreme Novices and I would suggest he may well have hosed up there had he gone today but they have kept him in the stiffer testing race and he must have a shout if he stays. He looks like he should, but at these odds you need to be 95% certain and there is just enough doubt for me not to play at the odds.
Messire Des Obeaux is a horse I backed against Ballyandy when the Twiston-Davies horse was hot favourite. I had them more or less the same horse at the time allowing for the King horse conceding 7 lbs and I felt he was the value. He went on to follow up for me next time but I then went against him next time because he was so short giving 8 lbs to another horse I have followed this season, Warren Greatrex’s Keeper Hill and it was the latter horse who narrowly prevailed receiving the weight. Again, it was a value call on the day. They will meet at levels here so Messire should reverse the form in theory. He seems a decent each-way option for this race but Yanworth‘s poor effort today worries me a little.
Livelovelaugh won last time with ease but it was a modest contest, two previous efforts were thumpings and that leaves him a lot to do in the context of this contest. I feel the bookies will be the ones doing the laughing if you back this one.
Kemboy is an ex French horse who was second in a grade 2 to Let’s Dance last time out. I feel he lacks the experience for a race like this and the winner that day was rerouted from this race to the easier Mares Novices race, which hardly bolsters confidence. He’s double carpet if you fancy a boil-over here.
Keeper Hill is a likeable enough sort. I have followed him this year and he has done me two good turns. He looks a decent stayer but the big question here is whether he can confirm a half length win from Messire Des Obeaux on 8 lbs worse terms? The figures would say no but he seems quite a gritty horse and at 22/1 each-way 1/4 odds he may surprise some of the more fancied ones here.
De Dollar Man has done well enough but the races he has won have not been great. I saw his last run, a third at Ascot, having been described as a “Warm contest” but all three horses to have run from it ran unplaced, with winner Beyond Conceit well beaten off in the Supreme in 6th today. On the plus side, he is 50/1 if you feel you may land some dollars with him each-way.
Consul De Thaix is still to win any race but he has run in some good company. Sadly for him and his fans Brain Power let the form down big style with a very tame effort in the Champion Hurdle today. He had given Consul De Thaix a stone and a whipping last time and you would have hoped he could have given some heft to the form of that race. I am not keen on backing maidens in Championship races so I am passing him by here.
Burbank won a Bumper first time and was then second over hurdles. Nothing has won from either race in numerous starts since. He then won as 8/15 Fav before flopping at 3/10 Fav at Musselburgh next time. He’s understandably big odds in this much tougher affair.
Brelade is relatively experienced with 7 starts and he was 3rd in the Deloitte last time. Second horse Bunk Off Early did little for that form in the Supreme today. Brelade was earlier second to Saturnas, who was fancied and favourite for the Deloitte but he was never in it that day. The earlier race which was the Future Champions race has worked out poorly really, the favourite that day Peace News, has stank twice since and all five runs bar Brelade have been pretty much thrashed out of sight. I just don’t have a lot of confidence in the form.
Bon Papa has started well, a bit unlucky on his second start and he may have come here unbeaten but for a fall. His Bumper win from Broken Soul doesn’t look as good as it once did though, with that horse’s form tailing off. Others in that flat race have been getting beaten in maiden hurdles and other Bumper races since. He was 1/5 last time and didn’t beat a lot but he is a horse who may be decent in time. I just feel he has a lot on stepping up to this level at this stage and facing a very different type of opponent while he is still pretty inexperienced for the cauldron of Cheltenham. Maybe a horse for next season more than this, time is on his side.
Bacardys won the Deloitte and seemed to outstay them that day in bad conditions. I think a few horses ran poorly that day and as already mentioned Bunk Off Early was a huge disappointment whatever way you want to read it today. Bacardys was a lay for me at 3/1 yesterday and he’s out to 4’s tonight, which still seems tight enough on what will be very different ground. I just can’t see him matching Neon Wolf for pace in a finish and with Mullins empty on day one, he just doesn’t warrant his odds all things considered.
Summary:-
I can’t agree it’s a cracking renewal. Neon Wolf stands out and will win easily if he stays the trip in my opinion. I was going to do him at 10/1 as a saver on my Finian’s Oscar bets but hesitated due to my confidence in the Tizzard horse. Another lesson learned there, all too late again, of not being greedy and too gung ho.
With what’s left now Messire Des Obeaux has a chance and on the book should reverse form with Keeper Hill. However, with the stable in reasonable form, I am going to risk Greatrex’s horse, as he could improve here and he looks quite resolute in his races. If they go hard to try to break Neon Wolf it could end up hard going in the closing stages and you don’t need to risk a lot at 22/1 for something to shout at the TV about.
Good luck with whatever you are choosing. Deep down I hope Neon Wolf brings some class to this race and perhaps we may yet see him clash with Finian’s Oscar.
Baby Don’t Fear The Keeper. Keeper Hill 22/1 Each-way 1/4 odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve done the Elliott pair, Shattered Love 11/1 and Brelade 28/1 with savers on the two favs, Neon Wolf 2/1 and Bacardys 7/2.
Value Is EverythingTook fancy odds about Neon Wolf halfway through the Haydock race and am hoping he delivers on his promise. But his timefigures so far don’t look tremendous and I’ll be backing him up with Shattered Love and Consul De Thaix. The latter could be the best value in the race given that he looks to be crying out for this trip and the yard is in such sparkling form. I wouldn’t take the Brain Power form from yesterday literally – he was very free early and never really settled, predictably going out quickly.
If Neon Wolf was owned by Richard Ricci it’d be even money for the way it’s performed this year and no.one would be concerned at all.
I think it’s gonna win and hope I’m right. It’s form lines say it’s quite a bit better than River Wylde and probably had a lot more in the tank.
I think it’s an absolute certainty.
If it doesn’t I hope Shattered love wins as backed her at 7/1 the first day she won.
If Neon Wolf was owned by Richard Ricci it’d be even money for the way it’s performed this year and no.one would be concerned at all.
I think it’s gonna win and hope I’m right. It’s form lines say it’s quite a bit better than River Wylde and probably had a lot more in the tank.
I think it’s an absolute certainty.
If it doesn’t I hope Shattered love wins as backed her at 7/1 the first day she won.
Word of caution: a few hotpots have been turned over in the neptune over the years. Remember that horse of willie mullins who was supposed to be the second coming, pont alexandre? Firmly put in his place. Even the great Denman was trounced in this race.
The reason they run this race is because we don’t know YET who the best young horse is at 2 miles 4. Hard to call anything a certainty at this stage.
If Neon Wolf was owned by Richard Ricci it’d be even money for the way it’s performed this year and no.one would be concerned at all.
I think it’s gonna win and hope I’m right. It’s form lines say it’s quite a bit better than River Wylde and probably had a lot more in the tank.
I think it’s an absolute certainty.
If it doesn’t I hope Shattered love wins as backed her at 7/1 the first day she won.
Word of caution: a few hotpots have been turned over in the neptune over the years. Remember that horse of willie mullins who was supposed to be the second coming, pont alexandre? Firmly put in his place. Even the great Denman was trounced in this race.
The reason they run this race is because we don’t know YET who the best young horse is at 2 miles 4. Hard to call anything a certainty at this stage.
I won’t lie… I backed Pont Alexandre.
I have also backed Simonsig and Faugheen. I think the form lines he has as well as how he looks visually really draws me to him.
I mean it could all go wrong and I lose 25 quid and I have the whole field against me too.
I hope if I don’t win that someone does. Grey feeling when no one wins and the place goes quiet.
I think he’s a very good horse and I think he’ll win today, but interesting that earlier in the season they were talking about avoiding quicker ground, and now they’re running him here. Of course he has to run really as it’s cheltenham.
Main reason I think he’ll win is because i’m struggling to think of one against him. Messire Des Obeaux I don’t really rate, Bacardy’s would be interesting but I’m told by the forum gurus on here that he’s not good enough, and after that the race seems to fall away.
I think he’s a very good horse and I think he’ll win today, but interesting that earlier in the season they were talking about avoiding quicker ground, and now they’re running him here. Of course he has to run really as it’s cheltenham.
Main reason I think he’ll win is because i’m struggling to think of one against him. Messire Des Obeaux I don’t really rate, Bacardy’s would be interesting but I’m told by the forum gurus on here that he’s not good enough, and after that the race seems to fall away.
I remember, I missed backing him at 12’s as thought he was going Aintree.
I looked at bigger prices and then said to myself, “if Neon Wolf was that price too who would I back”, then realised I was just looking for price over gut feeling.
I wouldn’t wanna put anyone off as TAPK has MDO and that’ll probably go and walk home. I wouldn’t resent it, he put me on Workforce years ago.
Potentially we could see the latest impressive winner of the Neptune as Neon Wolf wins by 7 lengths comfortably, I hope so. Had I not backed him and was in opposition I would take a pot shot on Bon Papa E/W.
It’s so boring but Neon Wolf is quick and the rest of them are likely slow, with the possible exception of Brelade, who I like EW.
Well done willoughy court backers
unlucky neon wolf fans but don’t desert this horse as he has a huge future over fences
The usual curse of me backing a horse win only; very rare but can almost guarantee second place by doing so.
Another hotpot floored in the neptune.
this race should really come with a wealth warning for punters.
Willoughby Court @ 14/1.
Boom. Like a boss
What a magnificent race to kick off day 2. The way Neon Wolf travelled I can’t help thinking they should’ve gone for the two miler.
Willoughby Court @ 14/1.
Boom. Like a boss
Well done mate.
I backed Neon Wolf in the Irish bookies so got a free bet for finishing 2nd.
Gone on Tombstone.
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