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Think I might lump on Neon Wolf now. Same connections just had a winner over same trip which charged up the hill and I can see this one doing a similar demolition on what is now looking like a weak field
The only horse I feared for this was ‘Finians Oscar’,he should have been fav imo so to see 10/1 nrnb Bet365 about Messire des Obeaux in his absence is Xmas to me.If there is one horse who has been over-priced all year its this fellow so in we go again.
With all the negativity surrounding Finian’s Oscar I added Messire Des Obeaux a couple of days ago. Corals held out the 12/1 carrot for quite a while and it has taken quite a long time for him to shorten. He has some solid form but I would be pretty concerned about the drying ground.
Does anyone know if Beyond Conceit is going to go here for sure?.. it seems that Nico de Boinville is named to ride him here but he doesn’t have a jockey beside his name in the Supreme. I was really impressed with this horse on his return (after nearly 4 years off) at Newbury and I think on the next run he might have bounced a little. He could be the value as totally unexposed over hurdles and trained by a master in Henderson. I have him matched at 85 for the Supreme but I’m not sure what price I should take for the Neptune, he is only 16/1 NRNB which doesn’t make enough appeal I think I would want 25/1 if Neon Wolf is lining up.
Stilvi, TAPK and I don’t often share the same views, but it looks like we’re all on the Messire Des Obeaux boat.
I took 14/1 e/w a couple of weeks before his Huntingdon run. I think there has been plenty of juice in his price all along because he doesn’t have the sexy profile of something like Neon Wolf, who just burst onto the scene with a couple of impressive wins. MDO was a mediocre juvenile hurdler last year and I think many are still holding that against him. Accepting the improvement he has shown this term, he has produced at least two rock solid 150s performances. I was slightly disappointed to see him beaten last time, but even that was a mid-150s effort by my ratings and Alan King says the horse was far from primed for that outing. I think the Challow is being underrated as a piece of form, but well-held third Ami Desbois has certainly done his part for the squad. MDO will go on any ground and could improve further still. The departure of Finian’s Oscar is a obviously a boost from a selfish point of view and the pair at the top of the betting have their own questions to answer.
Neon Wolf was certainly impressive at Haydock and gave Elgin the heaviest slamming he has taken all season. Still, as a son of Vinnie Roe, he does have the pedigree of a horse who will always show his best form in the mud. I’m not churlish enough to say he’s definitely not the real deal on a sound surface (he easily could be) but I am saying that he’s not a value 7/4 shot – he has to go out and prove himself. In contrast, our boy Messire Des Obeaux is already established at a superior (though far from unattainable) level.
Similar sentiments have to apply to Bacardys, whose ground concerns are even more worrying. I love this horse’s attitude and think he could easily be a Gold Cup contender in a couple of years, but the two standout efforts of his career have been on soft and his less inspiring runs have been on decent ground. The Deloitte jockey bookings suggest his homework (presumably on artificial/good) was hardly dazzling.
Yet another with a ground query is Willoughby Court, whose trainer seems adamant that soft ground is essential. Gayebury has done plenty to frank his Warwick form, but I’ve still got my working theory that the pace bias seen at that track this season can exaggerate (or even fluke) results somewhat. Willoughby Court’s yard has gone a little flaky in the last couple of months, so I’d be treading carefully with him for that reason too.
Of the rest, Let’s Dance would be a real danger with a run. She’s an established 150s horse (my ratings) getting a sex allowance and can’t be far away. I like the look of Monalee with his pedigree promising better to come on decent ground. Skipthecuddles probably falls a little short but I could see him outrunning his odds too.
The conclusion? Well, surely all these horses with decent soft ground form won’t all bomb out. We could see something special if Neon Wolf makes the transition. It seems likely that one or two will flounder, though. Messire Des Obeaux is just so solid for the places with a fair win shout too.
Let’s Dance looks too short to take as an each-way saver, so I’ll probably let this race roll with just one bet.
A non-event in my book now. All the novice races at the festival are now struggling to gain much anticipation.
Does anyone know if Beyond Conceit is going to go here for sure?.. it seems that Nico de Boinville is named to ride him here but he doesn’t have a jockey beside his name in the Supreme. I was really impressed with this horse on his return (after nearly 4 years off) at Newbury and I think on the next run he might have bounced a little. He could be the value as totally unexposed over hurdles and trained by a master in Henderson. I have him matched at 85 for the Supreme but I’m not sure what price I should take for the Neptune, he is only 16/1 NRNB which doesn’t make enough appeal I think I would want 25/1 if Neon Wolf is lining up.
I put a comment on the Supreme thread along the lines that it appeared they seemed to looking after De Boinville rather than the horse. For the reasons I gave on there I think the Supreme would have suited him better. I suspect you will get better than 16/1 for the Neptune.
Stilvi, TAPK and I don’t often share the same views, but it looks like we’re all on the Messire Des Obeaux boat.
I suspect you agree with TAPK more often I do. It seems impossible to knock that man’s confidence. To be fair I have had a string of disasters (Robin Roe, Invitation Only and Finian’s Oscar) in this race and Messire Des Obeaux was a last dart, win only. I would have preferred Monalee but it seems he is going Albert Bartlett. Just think Neon Wolf at this stage remains more hype than substance and Bacardys isn’t that good.
Backed Bon Papa 20/1 NRNB last night. Been very impressive winning a couple of egg and spoon races and worth taking a chance on I feel as not convinced by the form of the more exposed runners.
Lets dance not declared
Bon papa declared townend on board (delighted with that took him at 75s )
Lets dance not declared
Bon papa declared townend on board (delighted with that took him at 75s )
Someone on another forum fancied Let’s Dance for this race and was having a go at me for suggesting that she might go to the Dawn Run race. It’s been funny how many of these Mullins horses that were aimed high and have now gone to the weakest race they were entered in.
Anyhow, Neon Wolf vs Finian’s Oscar was shaping as a great clash but that has now been snatched away by fate and left the race a bit devoid of excitement.
I can’t see it with Bon Papa, he is unexposed but needs a massive jump forward to win this. His maiden win was from massive priced no hopers in the main and I find his Racing Post Rating of 140 to be rather generous to say the least. There may be overrated runners in here but it’s a huge leap from a maiden win to a Championship race and he would surely be 33/1 trained by a smaller operation.
The ATR card for this race today is a disgrace, with Finian’s Oscar still in the betting at the top of the card and Blue Rambler 12/1 Favourite for the race at the bottom of the card. They have Neon Wolf 20/1 in that betting guide and surely only Doctor Who can get those odds now. That’s piss poor by any standards and ATR should be getting a grip on themselves.
Not sure I’ll play on this race now, will see how things go today.
Good luck everyone having a go here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lets dance not declared
Bon papa declared townend on board (delighted with that took him at 75s )
Someone on another forum fancied Let’s Dance for this race and was having a go at me for suggesting that she might go to the Dawn Run race. It’s been funny how many of these Mullins horses that were aimed high and have now gone to the weakest race they were entered in.
Anyhow, Neon Wolf vs Finian’s Oscar was shaping as a great clash but that has now been snatched away by fate and left the race a bit devoid of excitement.
I can’t see it with Bon Papa, he is unexposed but needs a massive jump forward to win this. His maiden win was from massive priced no hopers in the main and I find his Racing Post Rating of 140 to be rather generous to say the least. There may be overrated runners in here but it’s a huge leap from a maiden win to a Championship race and he would surely be 33/1 trained by a smaller operation.
The ATR card for this race today is a disgrace, with Finian’s Oscar still in the betting at the top of the card and Blue Rambler 12/1 Favourite for the race at the bottom of the card. They have Neon Wolf 20/1 in that betting guide and surely only Doctor Who can get those odds now. That’s piss poor by any standards and ATR should be getting a grip on themselves.
Not sure I’ll play on this race now, will see how things go today.
Good luck everyone having a go here.
Neon wolf will win for me
Happy with bon papa for a laying perspective
Neon Wolf has a great chance. Elgin was so-so today in the Supreme but backers of Bacardys must have been reaching for the oxygen mask after watching Bunk Off Early finishing out with the washing in 12th place in today’s opener.
I’ll be laying Bacardys for sure, he’s a mugs bet at 3/1 for me, pure Mullins fever and nothing else.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Neon Wolf has a great chance. Elgin was so-so today in the Supreme but backers of Bacardys must have been reaching for the oxygen mask after watching Bunk Off Early finishing out with the washing in 12th place in today’s opener.
I’ll be laying Bacardys for sure, he’s a mugs bet at 3/1 for me, pure Mullins fever and nothing else.
Balls deep on NW for me tomorrow
Consul De Thaix for me (W/O). Either I was right saying on this forum about strength of Ascot handicap, where CDT finished 2nd or I was completely wrong. I will know the answer tomorrow…
Neon Wolf.
The way River Wylde ran today and believing Neon Wolf will relish the trip, it must be a good thing.
Won’t go mad as like to enjoy the racing but I’ll have a few quid.
I have Neon Wolf in some multi bets, but I am very worried about him, he might be not as good as I thought he could be. That form from Haydock doesn’t look at top level now to me. It’s clear now why Neon Wolf wasn’t bought to Mullin’s yard (Patrick won PTP on Neon Wolf in March 2016). I hope NW wins tomorrow, but it won’t be a big shock if he will find one too good for him.
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