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WINTER IS COMING
Theres not really much to say for this in my mind, Nezwaah who is next in the betting has 10lbs to find on her. So Mi Dar sits in the could-be-anything bracket, but her established form falls far below what Winter has achieved. It’s good to see her return wasn’t rushed, but just how good will she be first time out? I’m inclined to forgive a horse one bad run, but Shutter Speed really had no excuses in the Prix de Diane and I think she just wasn’t good enough. Whoever Frankie sides with will be telling. I think the step-up in trip will not be a problem for Winter, in fact, it could even bring out some improvement. She settles well, she has a great turn of foot, and most importantly she’s by Galileo. Aidan has confirmed this is her target, fingers crossed she makes it here in one piece.
WINTER 7/4.
I’m going to cover my stake with a small bet on Wuheida 20/1. Her return to action at Newmarket was encouraging and I think the step-up in trip will also suit.
I have to agree that Winter will win and wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 7/4 as that should beat SP no matter who turns up against her. She’s an intended runner and is versatile ground-wise so rain or shine would be no worry to her compared to others who are more ground dependent (Queen’s Trust). I’d love her to win this and then go for the Irish Champion Stakes (I’ve taken 16/1 for that and 12/1 for Ascot).
Good luck Charles, I also backed her for the Irish Champion Stakes immediately after her Irish Guineas win. Only got 12/1 though, may have to go back in at 16s. If she wins this and a certain Almanzor doesn’t turn up, that will be a great docket to be sitting on.
If connections of the two best fillies in Europe take a chance – Winter going up in trip here and Enable taking on the boys in the King George – then both Group 1 fillies mile and mile and a half races will become more attractive for good fillies. Suspect some that appear excellent value in the 1m2f Nassau might only be those odds because they have other – now more likely – alternatives.
Value Is EverythingAlthough I expected her to win last time out, I have taken Abingdon again, and I think that 33-1 is fair each way price at this stage as I would expect her to run here.
Absolutely gutted to hear today (after I’ve bought my ticket for next Saturday) that the ‘powers that be’ have taken the Nassau off of Steward’s Cup day and replaced it with the Gordon Stakes! That is not a fair trade to replace one of the Group 1 highlight’s of the season with a Group 3 for 3 year old Derby also-rans. I was looking forward to seeing Winter take on her elders for the first time.
Nassau:
100% Book:
Winter 2/1, So Mi Dar 100/30, Sobetsu 9/2, Queen’s Trust 9/1, Hydrangea 9/1, Blond Me 20/1Backed:
Hydrangea @ 13/1, Sobetsu @ 6/1 with a saver on So Mi Dar @ 7/2.
Laid a bit of 11/2 Queens Trust.Value Is EverythingNo Nezwaah.
No Wuheida.
No Shutter Speed.Winter should win, and win well but given conditions and the way the week’s going it’s looking less likely than 48 hours ago despite those withdrawals.
I can’t have Queen’s Trust, she’ll hate the ground and So Mi Dar will as well. Sobetsu & Blond Me just aren’t good enough (just like Here Comes When) and Hydrangea has been proven 3 times in a row not as good as her stablemate.
I’ve backed Winter at 13/8. If she loses it won’t be by a better horse, because she’s head and shoulders above this lot. If she loses it’ll be conditions that beat her.
I’ve gone the complete opposite of what I probably would have done on a firmer surface.
Can’t really see Queens Trust running, form is obviously worse on just good-soft, let alone soft or worse. Would’ve looked to back her each way on a firm surface, but Laid her @ 11/2 for tomorrow.Winter hasn’t looked as though she’s stopping at the end of a mile and goes on good-soft, but unproven on softer. By Galileo but out of Laddies Poker Two, who won the Wokingham on very firm ground and was by firm ground sprinter Choisir. So Winter might not act on it and if she does very soft also places a far greater emphasis on stamina. On a firm surface I’d be confident she’d stay; but a strong pace on very soft ground at 1m2f is like 1m3f on firmer. I’d probably have saved on her on a firm surface, will be opposing her at these prices. Wouldn’t be surprised if she comes out too.
Value Is EverythingWinter for me, her run in the irish guineas on yielding was impressive enough to suggest a bit of cut is ok, BUT as stated by someone else this is slightly more than a bit of cut, similar to enable at the weekend none of these older horses could dream of giving her 8lbs as much as i like so mi dar if this was on good ground she hasnt a Hope of getting near her and i dont think sobetsu is in her league
Hydrangea way over priced the step up will suit i feel
Ive back winter and a saver on hydrangea, the forecast 1-2 is very much of interest for me also
Given how the weeks went i havent anywhere my usual stakes on, just enjoying the madness!
I was considering laying winter if the ground was not crazy as I thought this was the best fillies race in a long long time.
However, the week has been crazy and now her task is much easier with the withdrawals. It’s a shame for the race as I think one of Wuheida (when fit), So Mi Dar (when fit) and Shutter Speed (when fit) on decent ground would have beaten the o brien filly.
It’s a watching race for me though if there’s any 7/4 or 13/8 still available tomorrow, I’ll throw winter in a tiny multiple for an interest.
Overall, the rain has ruined the best fillies race in months or even years.
What price winter not running. Hydrangea is the value bet but conditions make it w lottery I’m afraid.
Very likely- not much extra broodmare value for Winter in winning it and too much risk of tendon injury in the ground. I think she will be withdrawn and the less valuable Hydrangea will be given her chance to win a G1 (thus boosting her value as a dam) as nobody to be pacemaker for. Wondering whether it’s better to take the 12s now and accept the R4 savaging when Winter ?and others? come out or wait and take whatever price is left at lunchtime tomorrow.
Went ahead and backed Hydrangea win only at 12s. Think Winter will come out and possibly Queen’s Trust. So Di Mar likely left in- there’s a risk to a fragile mare but they might take the view that they may as well run her when she happens to be fit as she could just have problems in training again anyway and she’ll never have a better chance to win a G1. Run, win, retire…but I’m betting that it’ll turn out to be run, place, retire/keep racing as my bet is she won’t be able to give Hydrangea the weight in that ground.
Me too, greenasgrass.
I’m a bit worried because Ballydoyle obviously haven’t rated Hydrangea very highly this year (3rd-choice jockey all the way) but if she’s ever going to beat Winter, it’ll be today. The hike in trip and custard-like ground are both in her favour.
Queen’s Trust is likely to come out, I wouldn’t touch So Mi Dar with counterfeit and Sobetsu probably doesn’t have the tactical pace. Hydrangea is likely to be left alone up front and could well steal this – Winter has to prove that she can stay and quicken on this kind of surface.
Unlike in a colts race, there are no worries about Coolmore soft-playing it to make sure Winter beats Hydrangea. They don’t give a toss which filly wins with no stud fees on the line, so both will definitely run on their merits.
I’ve gone the complete opposite of what I probably would have done on a firmer surface.
Can’t really see Queens Trust running, form is obviously worse on just good-soft, let alone soft or worse. Would’ve looked to back her each way on a firm surface, but Laid her @ 11/2 for tomorrow.Winter hasn’t looked as though she’s stopping at the end of a mile and goes on good-soft, but unproven on softer. By Galileo but out of Laddies Poker Two, who won the Wokingham on very firm ground and was by firm ground sprinter Choisir. So Winter might not act on it and if she does very soft also places a far greater emphasis on stamina. On a firm surface I’d be confident she’d stay; but a strong pace on very soft ground at 1m2f is like 1m3f on firmer. I’d probably have saved on her on a firm surface, will be opposing her at these prices. Wouldn’t be surprised if she comes out too.
False rail is taken down on Wednesday night and it always favours prominent runners on the round course with fresh ground Thursday. Should be particularly helpful when going is this soft, Prominent runners get the rail and hold up horses either need to come around them (possibly on bad ground) or trouble in running. Am on Hydrangea and Sobetsu who may have an advantage. However, if there’s also a fairly strong headwind, hold up horses can slip-stream and be advantageous to them. Then again it adds to the need for stamina. Prominent runners will need to save something for the finish though.
Hydrangea was 2 1/2 lengths behind Winter in the Coronation, could’ve been more if rider of the winner wanted. But this requires different stamina requirements. There are grounds to believe Winter may not be as good and Hydrangea better. Coronation result (by distances) was on form a good run by Hydrangea, but she looked uncomfortable on the good-firm ground throughout and never closer than at the line. Finished last on firm in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and 10th of 14 at Newmarket g-f. Looked far more comfortable with give in the Irish Guineas and it was the same when beating Winter in the Guineas trial. Winter wasn’t at her peak yet, but there’s a chance even softer will suit Hydrangea. Best performance last year on the softest she’s faced, head second to Rhododendron in the Debutante. Hydrangea could improve for even softer and Winter deteriorate. At the prices I’d rather be on the second string.
Sobetsu was always prominent and won a French Group 1 over 1m2f on soft, those she beat weren’t great but she won with something to spare, by 3 lengths. Went off with the pacemaker in the Oaks and soon beaten. This 1m2f on soft is right up her street.
On “form” Queens Trust isn’t far behind Winter. I had a good result with her when not far behind Minding last year (massive price each way and in the betting without market). Not far behind Ulysses either, in the Prince Of Wales last time,despite being given to much to do. However, all her best form is on a firmer surface and isn’t the easiest to win with – imo pulls herself up in front.
Andrew Balding pulled off a big shock yesterday and Blond Me is another outsider. Beat Queens Trust on their reappearances on a softish surface in the Middleton in May. Obviously goes well fresh and hasn’t run since. Will need another personal best here.
So Mi Dar may be a four year old, but she’s had less racing than a lot of these. Obviously hasn’t been the easiest to train and probably open to more improvement than any of her rivals. Normally with an injury prone horse I’d be worried about a longish absence, but she’s won on the first start on both seasons… As a three year old winning the Epsom Derby Trial on soft ground, from next time out Lingfield Derby winner Humphrey Bogart. Also won a “listed” (better than that) Yarmouth race after being off from May to September; beating Group 1 winning fillies Nezwaah and Arabian Queen, despite carrying a penalty. So Mi Dar then didn’t get the best of rides when favourite, 1/2 length 3rd in the Group 1 Prix De L’Opera. So has good form, proven on the ground and will probably be fit for reappearance (won’t want to see her being friendless in the market). I’ve saved on her.
Value Is Everything
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