- This topic has 81 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I’m completely against you here Clints. I think Mori screams out as the type to win the ribblesdale, normally I think the fillies who are a lay in this are the ones who have run in the Oaks, and are too tired to replicate their form at ascot, and throw in the michael stoute angle and the fact that Khalid Abdulla seems to have such a strong hand with three year old fillies and she’s a back not a lay.
I also think Carvaggio is one of the best horses on the flat I’ve seen since Frankel and by the end of the season we’ll be ranking him with sprinters like Dayjur.
I’m completely against you here Clints. I think Mori screams out as the type to win the ribblesdale, normally I think the fillies who are a lay in this are the ones who have run in the Oaks, and are too tired to replicate their form at ascot, and throw in the michael stoute angle and the fact that Khalid Abdulla seems to have such a strong hand with three year old fillies and she’s a back not a lay.
I also think Carvaggio is one of the best horses on the flat I’ve seen since Frankel and by the end of the season we’ll be ranking him with sprinters like Dayjur.
We’ll agree to disagree Judge. Im just not convinced that Mori has beaten much to justify her being favourite/joint-favourite at around 5/1.
Her first race she was 5th to Gracious Diana by 7 and a half lengths. Gracious Diana then went back to Newbury over the same distance and came 4th to Natavia by 17 and a half lengths. I appreciate it was a huge jump from a maiden to a listed race.
Natavia on her follow up run in the Oaks, came last of the 9 runners, beaten by about 27 lengths. Fair enough she probably didnt enjoy the ground and is much better but that wasnt great considering the market support she received.
Im not necessarily saying Mori wont or cant win, im just saying I think the price is all wrong. After she beat Coconut Creme at Goodwood she was stable after the race at 10s (which I think is fair) but has now halved in price.
The last 3 runnings have gone to Ireland and SMS has not won it since 2003.
****
Again, as for Caravaggio, im not denying hes an absolute machine but this is his biggest challenge yet in my opinion and at the odds, I feel he is short enough.Ive got him at 11/8 and in a double with OOSG but that was prior to what Harry Angel did at Haydock.
Lets hope its a steering job and he goes down as one of the best sprinters of all time,I just feel at time of writing he is very, very short.
As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.
As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.
Wouldnt surprise me if a rank outsider won it. Im saying lay the price more than the horse. Clearly everyone is entitled to their own opinions. She is bred well but doesnt represent value for money at 5/1 based on what shes achieved so far. If she goes and wins comfortably at 5/1 or shorter I will happily eat my words
I’m completely against you here Clints. I think Mori screams out as the type to win the ribblesdale, normally I think the fillies who are a lay in this are the ones who have run in the Oaks, and are too tired to replicate their form at ascot, and throw in the michael stoute angle and the fact that Khalid Abdulla seems to have such a strong hand with three year old fillies and she’s a back not a lay.
I also think Carvaggio is one of the best horses on the flat I’ve seen since Frankel and by the end of the season we’ll be ranking him with sprinters like Dayjur.
Think you are bang on there with Caravaggio.
I was raving about him last year and was my NAP in the Coventry. He looked one hell of a machine based on his time at Dundalk. He improved massively from there and if he wins like I hope against a brilliant horse in Harry Angel, he may well be even better than Muhaarar.
As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.
Wouldnt surprise me if a rank outsider won it. Im saying lay the price more than the horse. Clearly everyone is entitled to their own opinions. She is bred well but doesnt represent value for money at 5/1 based on what shes achieved so far. If she goes and wins comfortably at 5/1 or shorter I will happily eat my words
5-1 is hardly 6-4 though is it…
As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.
Wouldnt surprise me if a rank outsider won it. Im saying lay the price more than the horse. Clearly everyone is entitled to their own opinions. She is bred well but doesnt represent value for money at 5/1 based on what shes achieved so far. If she goes and wins comfortably at 5/1 or shorter I will happily eat my words
5-1 is hardly 6-4 though is it…
Judge – we are just going round in circles here. Yes its not 6/4 but as ive said, i dont feel 5s is a fair price for the punters. Im not on anything so if youve backed Mori I certainly hope she wins for you.
I have Mori as a lay for the Ribblesdale. For me, much is being made of her being by Frankel out of Midday.
Breeding aside, her bare form looks miles short of Group 2 class. Her maiden hasn’t worked out well, with the highest place rating from it being 75. Mori earned a rating of 88 for that maiden and went into the Listed Height Of Fashion Stakes as the narrow favourite from Icespire. Icespire was a filly who had been touted a fair bit in the Spring as a promising sort for John Gosden but she was a beaten favourite first time up this year and she was bitterly disappointing in last place behind Mori, weakening tamely over the extra two furlongs that day. It left Mori with little to beat really and runner up Coconut Creme had come into the race as a Beverley maiden winner for the master of of winning poor maidens with very expensive horses, William Haggas.
Mori only went up 3 lbs for winning a Listed race last time and that’s not a lot of improvement. More worryingly, 91 is a desperate figure for a Listed grade winner. It is also a moot point about Mori getting the extra 2 furlongs. Half brother Midterm was beaten on all three attempts at a mile and a half, and his sire Galileo often imparts that bit of extra stamina. Mori has Frankel on one side, with sprinter Kind being his mum. On the dam side Oasis Dream is also a sprinter. There would be a concern for me there but my biggest worry is that she just isn’t anywhere near Group 2 class. You can argue she will improve but going from 88 to 91 last time did not indicate rapid progress to me.
For me Alluringly appeals more. Third in the Oaks, albeit well thumped, sets the standard and she is rated 106, which is a shade over a stone ahead of Mori. There is no reason to really see anything reversing Oaks form with Alluringly and as long as she shows up she looks an each-way lock at 5/1. Some of those in the current betting won’t be turning up and it may be a smallish field in the end.
Mori is 7/2 in places now and that’s rank value in my opinion. I think her last race was little more than a penalty kick with the 2nd fav running like a drain.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As much as I don’t think Mori is a world beater I really wouldn’t want to lay her as she doesn’t appear to have anything to beat. Just some Oaks also-rans.
Wouldnt surprise me if a rank outsider won it. Im saying lay the price more than the horse. Clearly everyone is entitled to their own opinions. She is bred well but doesnt represent value for money at 5/1 based on what shes achieved so far. If she goes and wins comfortably at 5/1 or shorter I will happily eat my words
5-1 is hardly 6-4 though is it…
Judge – we are just going round in circles here. Yes its not 6/4 but as ive said, i dont feel 5s is a fair price for the punters. Im not on anything so if youve backed Mori I certainly hope she wins for you.
Ok Clints but just the way you were banging on about price it was like she was a short priced fav or something
5-1 seems fair but if she’s coming in to 7-2 or even shorter that changes a lot
also I think Stoute is more in form now… he had a winner yesterday and possibly timing his run for Royal ascot
I don’t get the stamina issue… looking at her last two runs the best part for her was the final part of the race.. also she’s by Frankel out of midday. Midday finished 2nd in the Oaks and Frankel never raced over 1 mile four but I’m sure if he had he wouldn’t have had a problem and all his progeny seem to stay really well.
bigger issue seems to be the form isn’t that great but who cares she’s an improving michael stoute 3 year old, that’ll do for me
you’re right clints she shouldn’t be 5-1 she should be 1.01
I don’t get the stamina issue… looking at her last two runs the best part for her was the final part of the race.. also she’s by Frankel out of midday. Midday finished 2nd in the Oaks and Frankel never raced over 1 mile four but I’m sure if he had he wouldn’t have had a problem and all his progeny seem to stay really well.
bigger issue seems to be the form isn’t that great but who cares she’s an improving michael stoute 3 year old, that’ll do for me
you’re right clints she shouldn’t be 5-1 she should be 1.01
Not long to wait and find out Judge. Wish I had your confidence
All my three are first day!!
RIBCHESTER NAP IMO only has the american horse to beat!!
SIGNS OF BLESSING LAY This cannot win unless we have a deluge it needs soft ground and to be honest probably further than five furlongs!!
WHO DARES WINS E/W This has a massive chance in the ascot Stakes and at 14/1 and 12/1 it will not be out of the frame and come the day will be a lot shorter and IMO only Mullins horses will stop it being favourite!!
Good Luck Guys
I’m happy anyway. Backed Alluringly at 5/1, which I said looked an each-way lock. Pulled up Oddschecker after lunch and Alluringly is 3/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m happy anyway. Backed Alluringly at 5/1, which I said looked an each-way lock. Pulled up Oddschecker after lunch and Alluringly is 3/1
Good for you steve, I fancy Mori, you fancy Alluringly, let’s not overanalyse it like the derby was overanalysed to death in some quarters including on here, it’s only a horse race after all between some dumb animals running around in a grassy field miles from where any of us lives
I’m happy anyway. Backed Alluringly at 5/1, which I said looked an each-way lock. Pulled up Oddschecker after lunch and Alluringly is 3/1
Good for you steve, I fancy Mori, you fancy Alluringly, let’s not overanalyse it like the derby was overanalysed to death in some quarters including on here, it’s only a horse race after all between some dumb animals running around in a grassy field miles from where any of us lives
No harm in analysing the form. We need to use something as a tool for finding the winner. As you say, Mori could improve a lot but she needs to and on balance I feel she has a bit much to find.
Alluringly has three and three quarters of a length margin over Horseplay from the Oaks and another length on top of that over Coronet, who has looked to be too slow in grabbing a decent place early in her races, leaving her with a lot to do. John Gosden has said Coronet has to “Do her own thing” in a race, which I feel is a euphemism for “She’s a plodder”
Mori could be the fly in the ointment here, with Horseplay not re-opposing and Coronet unlikely to like the lively ground based on her last couple of runs.
I looked for what I thought was value odds. Ladbrokes and Corals have both cut Alluringly to 5/2 and the O’Brien factor on the day could see her shorter than that. None of that guarantees that she will win though. Mori is a bit of an unknown quantity and will be competitive if she can improve about 10 lbs here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think the fly in the ointment could be Naughty Or Nice Steve!!
Possible BIG improver and definitely gets the trip and at 12/1 is interesting!!Can’t have Mori on my mind !! Stoute’s record in this race is shocking and he has favourites beat in it too!!
I am not a big fan of Oaks runners in this either so that would leave Gosdens other one which got beat easy by Horseplay (Not exactly good form) hence me falling on NON !!
I did look at Naughty Or Nice Raymo. She is 2/2 but I just thought she scrambled home last time over 13F.
I think Finn McCool, who was third in that race is a cuddy. Hard to believe he was an early favourite for the Epsom Derby after he was given the name originally given to another colt who then had his name changed before his racecourse debut, as it was deemed that he wasn’t talented enough to keep the name. Some thought that Ballydoyle letting this colt keep the name meant he might be talented but he’s very moderate. The whole bunch in that event just seem moderate and disappointing.
You never know of course but I think Naughty Or Nice needs to find a stone here and while that is possible, it’s still a bit to ask.
Alluringly still has some scope I think. She was second to Enable and then third to Enable. Enable is a 122 rated Oaks winner, which is well above average, making Alluringly look the one in a fairly mediocre looking Ribblesdale.
Good luck to all though, it’s only my take on this race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.