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Nap, Lay and Each Way

Home Forums Archive Topics Royal Ascot Archive Royal Ascot 2017 Nap, Lay and Each Way

Viewing 17 posts - 18 through 34 (of 82 total)
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  • #1304244
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    I like it. Ballsy stuff from Botchy – the NAP in the Wokingham just raised the bar for balls-out punting.

    I’ll play:

    NAP: Ribchester

    LAY: Churchill

    E/W: Greenside (with a run) – Royal Hunt Cup

    #1304248
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    I’ll go for these:-

    Nap Alpha Centauri (Not sure Fairyland will like 6F as much and she had warts in her mouth recently and travelled over later than some of her stablemates)

    Each Way Fas 20/1 Commonwealth Cup (Tore his field apart last time and runner up won French Guineas)

    Lays Ulysses (Lacks the class in my eyes), Mirage Dancer(Potentially over rated, Crystal Ocean (Bit to prove still), Dream Castle (Ran a funny race in the Guineas and faces a horse narrowly beaten by Brametot in French 2000 last time, Mori (Coming up in class now), Clemmie (Still a maiden and short enough in the circumstances) Khairaat (Up 13 lbs now and race won hasn’t been working out well 5/1 looks skinny)

    I think all of those Lays looks poor value on what they have actually achieved.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1304263
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    I like Alpha Centauri as well, she’s the best two year old filly I’ve seen for years.

    #1304272
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2833

    I like Alpha Centauri as well, she’s the best two year old filly I’ve seen for years.

    You appear to have spelt Lady Aurelia wrongly :whistle:

    #1304279
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3487

    NAP – Outback Traveller Wokingham
    LAY – Blue Point Commonwealth
    E/W – Stradivarious Queens Vase

    Blue Point is as big as 6/1 – you’re gonna have a big liability if you want to make much cash laying him.

    I very much doubt any of these “lays” are for real

    as warwick hunt says on the betfair forum, post yer lay ta ;-)

    Whats the difference between betting £50 and laying off £50, because someone lays, dosent mean its alot…

    And to clarify, im aware the marginal profit laying off 6/1 for £50 but jf your sure it wont win its all the same…

    #1304290
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    I like Alpha Centauri as well, she’s the best two year old filly I’ve seen for years.

    You appear to have spelt Lady Aurelia wrongly :whistle:

    maybe she’s the fastest but could never warm to these wesley ward horses, probably because they’re all drugged up to the eyeballs.

    #1304292
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    As highly as I rate Alpha Centurai I wouldn’t be totally certain that she’s a nailed on certainty for royal ascot, this is two year olds we are talking about after all.

    If Clemmie runs she would rate a danger, I would be very concerned about her as she’s a half sister to Churchill, and I backed her last time and she ran on really, really well and just failed to get up

    The Tommy Stack filly was also impressive on her debut

    There I go making excuses already :unsure:

    #1304318
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    If you look at the five bankers of the meeting you have

    churchill
    order of st george
    ribchester
    winter
    caravaggio

    caravaggio has exceptional competition but reckon it will win anyway. winter, I can’t see an angle to take her on, think she’s head and shoulders above.

    I’m not completely convinced by the rest though. Can see Churchill getting chinned in the st james palace by barney roy perhaps, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock to see order of st george lose either. and ribchester, he deserves to be fav but is he certain to beat lightning spear?

    personally I’d be amazed if all five won, normally in these things at least one or two lose, and it wouldn’t surprise me if only 2/5 won

    #1304325
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 2833

    As highly as I rate Alpha Centurai I wouldn’t be totally certain that she’s a nailed on certainty for royal ascot, this is two year olds we are talking about after all.

    If Clemmie runs she would rate a danger, I would be very concerned about her as she’s a half sister to Churchill, and I backed her last time and she ran on really, really well and just failed to get up

    The Tommy Stack filly was also impressive on her debut

    There I go making excuses already :unsure:

    I’ve heard good things about September for O Brien. If he runs, she will run a big race I believe. Could be the 2018 1000 Guineas winner.

    #1304332
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    You might have “heard good things about her” (whatever that means) but I saw her run the other day on the video and she was hugely impressive.

    However it’s hard to believe they’ll drop her back to six for the albany after starting her off over seven. Most likely if they do run her and Clemmie they’ll send Clemmie to the albany and september to the chesham.

    #1304337
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 2833

    You might have “heard good things about her” (whatever that means) but I saw her run the other day on the video and she was hugely impressive.

    However it’s hard to believe they’ll drop her back to six for the albany after starting her off over seven. Most likely if they do run her and Clemmie they’ll send Clemmie to the albany and september to the chesham.

    I should clarify, I didn’t mean I had any info.

    I read an article the other day and there was a piece in it from someone who had been around the yard. He had some good stuff on September.

    That’s all I meant.

    #1304338
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    Well what did he say exactly? You’re being very vague. Maybe you have a link to the article?

    Any I fail to see how some vague stable rumour has more relevance than her run last thursday, which can be viewed by anyone with an internet connection and half a brain cell.

    #1304345
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2833

    Well what did he say exactly? You’re being very vague. Maybe you have a link to the article?

    Any I fail to see how some vague stable rumour has more relevance than her run last thursday, which can be viewed by anyone with an internet connection and half a brain cell.

    I’ll look for it Friday (busy tomorrow for my birthday). I can’t even remember what site I was on though which could be an issue but I’ll try.

    That run was very impressive. If it helps, the article was in the last week I read it.

    ‘Vague stable rumour’. It was an article from a racing journalist?

    #1304348
    Clints
    Participant
    • Total Posts 242

    Heres mine for what its worth:

    NAP – Lady Aurelia. I was tempted to go with Churchill or Ribchester but not sure thats offering much, so have settled for LA. I must admit closer to race time, I am rather petrified of Marsha but I think after what she did last year in the Queen Mary last year, and Wesley’s Royal Ascot form, she should be there or there abouts. Im ew at 6/1 so hoping she at least gets top 3.

    LAY – Mori. After she won her last race she was still trading around 10/1 for the Ribblesdale but now half that price. Shes bred well but this is a massive jump in class, where I dont feel the form justifys joint favouritism.

    EW – im not sure on his odds now but id be keen to take a punt on De Bruyne horse in the Coventry (was about 9s when i last looked). A very pacy horse who flew along Epsom. He needs to come on again for the run but id say hes worth a chance.

    Good luck everyone.

    #1304349
    Clints
    Participant
    • Total Posts 242

    Heres mine for what its worth:

    NAP – Lady Aurelia. I was tempted to go with Churchill or Ribchester but not sure thats offering much, so have settled for LA. I must admit closer to race time, I am rather petrified of Marsha but I think after what she did last year in the Queen Mary last year, and Wesley’s Royal Ascot form, she should be there or there abouts. Im ew at 6/1 so hoping she at least gets top 3.

    LAY – Mori. After she won her last race she was still trading around 10/1 for the Ribblesdale but now half that price. Shes bred well but this is a massive jump in class, where I dont feel the form justifys joint favouritism.

    EW – im not sure on his odds now but id be keen to take a punt on De Bruyne horse in the Coventry (was about 9s when i last looked). A very pacy horse who flew along Epsom. He needs to come on again for the run but id say hes worth a chance.

    Good luck everyone.

    Im even going to reply to my own post….how sad!

    If I was laying a short priced favourite (as opposed to Mori who is about 5s) I think it would have to be Caravaggio.

    I know some will shoot me down but whilst I think he is a machine and should win, there are some serious, serious challengers.

    I was at Ascot in May when Blue Point beat Harry Angel when receiving 4lbs. He broke the track record.

    Even more devastating was Harry’s next race at Haydock where he won by about 5 lengths and also broke the track record.

    This race certainly isnt a forgone conclusion and I wouldnt be sure in what order those three will finish.

    #1304358
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15046

    Nap – Bossy Guest
    33’s for Royal Hunt Cup. Obviously ultra competitive, but I think he’s massively overpriced, and if he actually jumps out the stalls, then having plenty going for him here, I’m strangely confident he’ll go close.

    Lay – Winter
    Maybe a bit short?

    Each Way – Big Time
    40’s in The Wokingham. Touch and go to sneak in, but I reckon primed for a big run. He should hopefully hold his price, and with 6 places on the day, I’ll happily wade in again to top up my Ante-Post bet.

    #1304364
    Avatar photoTheGun
    Participant
    • Total Posts 186

    I’ll go for these:-

    Nap Alpha Centauri (Not sure Fairyland will like 6F as much and she had warts in her mouth recently and travelled over later than some of her stablemates)

    Each Way Fas 20/1 Commonwealth Cup (Tore his field apart last time and runner up won French Guineas)

    Lays Ulysses (Lacks the class in my eyes), Mirage Dancer(Potentially over rated, Crystal Ocean (Bit to prove still), Dream Castle (Ran a funny race in the Guineas and faces a horse narrowly beaten by Brametot in French 2000 last time, Mori (Coming up in class now), Clemmie (Still a maiden and short enough in the circumstances) Khairaat (Up 13 lbs now and race won hasn’t been working out well 5/1 looks skinny)

    I think all of those Lays looks poor value on what they have actually achieved.

    I have money on Alpha Centauri but may well have to lay it all off after discovering she won’t run if there’s any ‘firm’ in the going. :negative:

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