January 12, 2006 at 22:13 #2394
Being a sad student I’ve spent several hours looking at the 2000 guineas. George Washington at 3/1 and Horatio Nelson at 7/1 doesn’t really appeal to me although I’d go for the latter, but I noticed Nakheel down the betting at 25/1. It’s won 2/2 both at 8f, one a listed event and was best rated with a RPR 109 (Top rating is George Washington RPR 121). If connections are planning to run it in the 2000 guineas I thought this was massively overpriced. I was wondering if anyone knew anything about the horse that I dont and whether it will take its chance in the 2000 guineas?
MatthewJanuary 13, 2006 at 10:34 #68381SalselonMember
- Total Posts 883
Am feeling rather hazy this morning – is Nakheel the Mark Johnston horse Tom Segal wrote about in the weekender a few weeks back?January 13, 2006 at 11:03 #68382
I didn’t catch that article but he is trained by Mark Johnston so it most likely is.January 14, 2006 at 01:15 #68383
Nakheel, is a Mark Johnston trained son of Sadlers Wells and Matiya, (once trained by the now retired Ben Hanbury).
He was green in his maiden up at Hamilton, but landed odds of 8/13 under R.Hills. He followed up on soft ground in Pontefract’s listed Silver Tankard at 11/8.
In neither race did this good looking colt beat anything of serious note, but he did it well enough. The top class trainer is bullish and is aiming for the Guineas.
25/1 is a fair price about the horse’s chances, imho and I wouldnt be surprised if the colt went straight to the Rowley mile where he, along with the rest of the field, will be beaten several lengths by a certain horse trained by Mr Marcus Tregoning…
…imho, of course.:biggrin:January 15, 2006 at 13:33 #68385TopceesMember
- Total Posts 15
FSL,<br>just been speaking to one of mates from MJ’s..he said done well over winter and said to have a few quid each way..at 25’s…;)January 15, 2006 at 17:58 #68386
Have done topceesJanuary 16, 2006 at 21:48 #68387
…that certain marcus tregoning horse will, in turn, be beaten several lengths by a certain horse trained by a certain mr. o’brien….
Oooooooooooohhhhh Trackside… Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â ;)
…I can’t wait till the first weekend in May :biggrin:
(Edited by Maxilon 5 at 9:49 pm on Jan. 16, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Maxilon 5 at 9:49 pm on Jan. 16, 2006)January 17, 2006 at 02:05 #68388
:( (Slightly confused look) Does that make Nakheel 3rd then?January 17, 2006 at 21:33 #68389
I like Johnston and if he likes an animal – as he appears to do with Nakheel – then it is usually pretty good. Bijou D’Inde, Mister Baileys, Shamardal and the great filly Attraction all prove his capability as a trainer and as a judge. 25/1 may be worth an e/w punt for 3rd, yes!:biggrin:
I’m convinced that the newly crowned 2-y-o Colt of the Year has been underestimated by this board and by some of the racing press.
Ok, George Washington may be some tool, flatseasonlover, but I’m convinced Sir Percy will run a big race and I’ve bet it to win the Guineas and, more speculatively, the Derby.
I’m pretty much all in in this hand… and not just with money.;)January 18, 2006 at 11:15 #68390
I totally agree about Sir Percy, Maxilon, but I was under the impression the trainer wasn’t sure whether the horse would go for the guineas
"I would think he would find a mile and a quarter his optimum trip but his dam was by Blakeney so maybe he will stay a mile and a half. I am sure he is in the Derby but if he isnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t we can always supplement him if we have too. I was very impressed with him and the Guineas would be a possible but I wouldnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t take a short price about the Guineas in case he doesnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t go" – M Tregoning
That’s why I haven’t backed it. Unless you know something different……January 18, 2006 at 20:19 #68391
Well, following the Dewhurst, my initial impression was that a longer trip would suit Sir Percy, flatseasonlover.
Aspects of his pedigree add weight to the argument.
On his sire side, you have Mark of Esteem, (2000 Guineas winner), out of Darshaan, (French Derby) and Shirley Heights, (Derby winner). Plenty of stamina there…and class influences.
Sir Percy’s granddam is Laughing Girl, who also bred Percy’s Girl and Braiswick, both of whom were campaigned by Geoff Wragg at middle distances, (the latter winning twice at 11f). With the strong Blakeney influence in the family, theres plenty of stamina for all to see.
So I can see Mr Tregoning’s logic. The Derby might seem a better bet.
Yet, the presence in the pedigree of July Cup winner Ajdal, (damsire of Homage and dam of Mark of Esteem) adds the necessary burst of speed you need to win a Guineas. This we witnessed in Sir Percy’s maiden victory at Goodwood; as impressive a quickening burst as I saw all season.
As regards the Guineas, I’m not THAT impressed with the likely home based opposition and while an unraced animal may prove a tartar come May, what has he to beat in the Guineas on form apart from the Coolmore duo?
Home based form lines put him a length or two in front already.
GW didn’t beat a great deal in the Phoenix, (including Red Clubs who may himself eventually turn out to be a July Cup type) and he appears to have been assessed on the manner of his victory, (which was exciting admittedly).
On the percentages alone, Sir Percy stands a top chance in both races. If he trains on, which is always the danger.
As for me knowing different fsl. I know nothing…:biggrin: Nakheel was mentioned by a good judge as a horse to follow at the Racing Awards night, btw.January 18, 2006 at 21:22 #68392
I totally agree about the pedigree its just the element of doubt over its running that makes my reluctant to part with my cash. What price did you get Maxilon as its BP 12/1 now? Also, would you be happy about it confirming superiority with the "unlucky in running" Horatio Nelson if both run?
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 9:23 pm on Jan. 18, 2006)January 18, 2006 at 22:09 #68393
That’s an ancient thread on the topic. Some good – and opposite – views from other members, fsl.
I’m a firm believer in the form book. And apparently, so is the BHB handicapper who believes that Sir Percy is a 1lb better horse than Horatio Nelson.
Fallon was not a happy bunny that Champions day afternoon. He felt the Coolmore horse was unlucky. But the strangest comment came from Martin Dwyer who felt that Sir Percy idled when he hit the front. I felt the opposite. I thought HN was going to take Sir Percy but Tregoning’s horse battled back.
He has a will to win, which was similarly evidenced in the Champagne at Goodwood on unsuitably sticky ground.
I’ve got a variety of prices for both races, fsl. I’ve backed it to win a fair bit. (I got a bit excited).:biggrin:
And I think 12’s is solid e/wvalue still.
Barring injury, I cannot see it missing the race – unless they go the Dante/Derby route favoured by Michael Bell and Motivator last year.
<br>January 19, 2006 at 01:50 #68394
Thanks for cheering me up trackside. I’d just been persuaded to hand over a wad of cash by Maxilon on Sir PercyJanuary 19, 2006 at 01:57 #68395
ps Maxilon I think the previous thread was what you call a rave review?:biggrin:
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