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Alan Aitken, SCMP:
No one has ever been in any doubt about the ability of the top jockeys to attract a public betting following and do their bit for the turnover god, with more than HK$55 million in win bets alone going south when Joao Moreira failed to ride a winner at Sha Tin on Sunday.
The Magic Man’s mounts accounted for 19.2 per cent of win bets for the entire meeting, and, if you extrapolate that to a similar exposure throughout all pools on the day, Moreira mounts carried bets worth some HK$266 million [i:2je4yu3h][over GBP 20 million – the extrapolation is because in HK the quinella pool is generally significantly bigger than the win pool each race][/i:2je4yu3h]. Now that’s a following.
And it isn’t only Joao – Zac Purton’s day carried a tick over HK$197 million in bets as well, although they emerged with a much better ending, with the win bettors well ahead on just the last two winners, Military Attack and Packing Llaregyb.
Which brings us to the point.
Somewhere, we hear, there is someone or some group, doing the old martingale thing with Moreira’s mounts. That is, every ride for the Magic Man is a bet, and everyone that loses sees a doubling of the bet for the next one. Yes, it sounds unlikely but, you know, people do funnier things than YouTube pandas when it comes to betting.
And maybe they aren’t the only ones as it has been noticeable that Moreira’s mounts do seem to get shorter and shorter even in a losing run – not that his losing runs are up to much when he’s winning nearly one in four rides.
Even though Purton had already ridden four winners, there seemed little roll-up impact on the odds of his last two rides on Sunday and Moreira had been winless yet Berlini and Khaya came up shorter.
There’s a story, perhaps true, perhaps not – we weren’t there for this one – connected with the invention of chess. When the inventor showed it on the 64-square board to a king, the king liked it so much he asked the guy to name his reward.
The inventor asked for a grain of rice for the first square of the board, two for the second square, four for the third and so on, doubling for each additional square. The king happily agreed, apparently thinking it was a cheap deal.
We’ve read a couple of ways this story ended.
In one, the inventor becomes the ruler of the land after doubling the grain of rice 64 times handed him everything in the kingdom, lock, stock and barrel. That’s probably the children’s version. Aspirational.
In another, the penny finally drops with the mathematically challenged king. He keeps the kingdom and has the inventor of the game beheaded for being such a cheeky so and so. We’re thinking solution two is the real world favourite.
Point is, the old martingale can run into some money very quickly, but it is great for Jockey Club turnover.
Just wondering what the next bet must be by now, though, as the Magic Man has racked up 13 beaten rides straight and that’s still eight short of his “best” losing streak here.
Obviously HK gets under the radar a bit in the UK.Otherwise those calling Ryan Moore the best in the world have never heard of Joao Moreira!!!! They don’t call him the Magic Man for nothing!!!
Well have to have a retake on Moreira after the Mckinnon stks today, placed He’s Your Man beautifully and rode him a treat but weak as a kitten riding the horse out.Watch the replay of Damian Oliver on the winner Happy Trails going 4 to Moreira’s one….Put Oliver on He’s Your Man he wins, put Oliver on Faaraaj he wins by 4 lengths, Oliver has been the been the best rider in the world for close to 20 years.
Mackinnon replay here:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/overseas/ … 41101/S1/3
bit harsh on Joao considering the international ratings of the first six:
116
110 (Joao) – 0.1 length
115 – 0.85 length
113 – 2.35 length
117 – 3.6 length
112 – 3.7 length…and he had already won the two previous races
I’ve been trying to nick a Zimbabwean cent on Mark ‘16%’ Johnston with a similar strategy for the past four weeks.
My next bet is for more than the GDP of the world.
Something to think about.
Mackinnon replay here:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/overseas/ … 41101/S1/3
bit harsh on Joao considering the international ratings of the first six:
116
110 (Joao) – 0.1 length
115 – 0.85 length
113 – 2.35 length
117 – 3.6 length
112 – 3.7 length…and he had already won the two previous races
Don’t get me wrong Wit, horses travel beautifully for him and he is a great rider but he looked different yesterday he looked a bit out of rhythm on He’s Your Man and if you compare him to Oliver on the winner there was a stark contrast.
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