- This topic has 34 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
Alan Berry is not everyone’s idea of a jockey judging by past posts on this forum but he excelled himself on Bob Hall last night, I’d written my bet off a long way out but he kept at the horse and got him in front on the run in, something that still looked very unlikely approaching the last.
Today’s Hunter selections in order of preference
ELIZA DOALOTT (NAP)
PERTINET (NB)
ASK AGAIN (EW)No big prices today
Again, I’m more than happy with the day, Eliza Doalott looks a very nice mare and I was lucky with Ask Again but if Pertient had stood up I would have landed a very big touch.
My Hunter Chase banker of the season so far runs tomorrow, QUOTICA DE POYANS at Aintree
Just placed my biggest bet of the season, the 4/6 (best odds guaranteed)offered for QUOTICA DE POYANS at Aintree looks too good to be true.
Although I’m not overkeen on betting odds on, this represents amazing value, I’d expected no better than around 4/9 or 2/5.
Anyone who saw how easily Eliza Doalott won last night should bear in mind that in Quotica’s only run last year he beat the mare easily and indded is one of only two horses to have ever lowered her colours in the 11 Hunter Chases and Point to Points she’s completed.
The 5th in Quotica’s Kelso race (Beaten 75 lengths) won well in similar grade last weekend.
These two pieces of form alone entitle him to go off at very long odds on without taking his enormous potentail into consideration.The other Hunter Chase (Downpatrick) seens between Outlaw Pete and HARRY PERCY, as the later is three times the price of the former I’ll go for the EW option
Although I think Quotica De Poyans would have won had he not fallen it was a VERY disapointing end to a very good week, decent profit on the week despite the heavy loss last night.
The false start with only 5 runners was pure village fete in style, the second start not much better, Quotica’s jockey must take some of the blame for the lost ground and for dropping the horse out too far on the final circuit, IMO after the false start she should have been right at the front as the horse is a confirmed front runer who needed every yard of the 2m4f.
Still I’ve had 12 bets in Hunters, 5 winners 4 fallers, three of which were very much in contention when falling, (23 points level stake profit) and an EW on a 14-1 place in my only flat bet.
One bet today…OVERTURN EW not a hunter, more of these next week
After some deliberation I’d say RYEMAN (8.30 NA) is worth a small wager at the weights
Eight Hunter Chases today, nothing stands out as a absolute banker and no big price horses with any sort of chance that I can see but five look a bit ahead of the relative opposition, I’ll go for a smallish EW heinz
CEDRUS LIBANI 7.05 Lud
AMBROSINNI 5.30 Folk
MORE TROUBLE 6.40 Folk
GOLD HEART 8.20 Folk
QUINDER SPRING 5.05 Perth… wouldn’t want to take too short a price especially if the incosistent Oojar was to put his best foot forward.Eight Hunter Chases today, nothing stands out as a absolute banker and no big price horses with any sort of chance that I can see but five look a bit ahead of the relative opposition, I’ll go for a smallish EW heinz
CEDRUS LIBANI 7.05 Lud
Non Runner small EW on HOCINAIL at 25s should get at least a place if he gets round that is, and that’s far from certain
AMBROSINNI 5.30 Folk
3rd thanks to a strong ride throughout the final circuit
MORE TROUBLE 6.40
Folk Easy winner
GOLD HEART 8.20 Folk
QUINDER SPRING 5.05 Perth… wouldn’t want to take too short a price especially if the incosistent Oojar was to put his best foot forward.Thanks to the unsucessful gamble 10s to 9/2 on the moody Oojar and the price of the fav I avoided any loss on this race
My betting season draws to a close, I’ve taken a decent (annual) profit out of the pot after Cheltenham despite a horrific Festival I’ve been playing around with "the change" since, mostly in Hunters.
Tonight BLAZE ALONG looks good for a decentish EW bet @ 5/1 guaranteed but BRADLEY, nice winner for me at 16-1 last time out runs on Friday evevening at Stratford and looks to have everything in his favour so I’m planning a hefty wager. He got run off his feet with the fast early pace at Chelteham but finished like a train up the hill over a couple of furongs shorter than Friday’s 3m4f and looks to be a young horse with a big future over extreme distances
Not a Hunter Chaser but an ex-pointed trained by Enda Bolger is close enough, MY LORD OSCAR is progressing nicely, 4th over an inadequate 2 miles last time out he appears to have a huge ammount in hand of the second fav, top weight Amaretto Son who was in receipt of 6lbs when beaten 22lengths by MLO last season. No obvious signs of Amaeretto Son’s form improving more than MLO since yet AS is set to concede 5lbs to Enda’s horse tonight.
MLO must be worth a bit EW around the 5-1 markEach Way thieves, one of which I admit to being, might consider ARISEA an EW bet to nothing…although I wouldn’t invest too much on a race like this.
He’s first time in a seller and first run for Fredy Murphy at Sedgefield against the 1-3 Fav
Can’t say I’m that fond of low grade sellers but Gordon Elliot’s runners all got stuffed last night and 1-3 about a horse than won one of the worst races run this season last time out is far too short and he conceeds best part of a stone to the selection.5-1 winner & 5-1 place will do nicely, the day will end in a solid profit whatever but I’ll have a little on each and an ew double on a couple of decent Hunters running in open races later this evening.
MASTER CHARM is favourite and has a favs chance in the novice chase
PEN GWEN has run up against a couple of decent Hunters in her last three races, Liza Doalott would be a very short price were she in Pen Gewns race and the 7-1 on offer represents a reasonably sound ewAll in all another decent week so far, I’ll be looking for FARMER FRANK to continue my good run in Hunter Chases. EW recommended, fairly open looking contest with some good pointers and a runner from Jonjos yard in the field but FF has the best Hunter form and at only seven should have more scope for further improvement than the favourite.
Todays EW thief’s bet has to be NOTHINGBUTHETRUTH Only five runners and its obviously between him and the 4-11 fav but Nothingbuthetruth looks to be the better/safer fencer. Best wait and bet near the off incase there are any withdrawls
oFarmer Frank just failed but the 3-1 on offer early gave a decent return to my EW, other selection was a non runner
Today’s best bet must be BRADLEY, bets365’s 10-1 should be hammered……it has been by me!!
GOOD COMPANY looks too good for the opposition in a much poorer looking race, 2-1 still available
Good Company’s prospects will live or perish on his jumping, I feel, and he’s errored at less trappy courses than Stratford already this spring.
Mind, this is not a good renewal of this course’s short hunter chase, with a few creatures in there that contravene the Racehorse Description Act, and a fault-free round for something might just be enough to win it.
At the prices I’m more inclined to side with Ryeman, as I think a little bit too much is being made of his defeat off 90 in Newton Abbot’s handicap hunter chase last time – he’s just not a copper-bottomed stayer of 2m5f under Rules.
Lisadell King emerges on top in the John Corbett Cup on Mackenzie & Harris’s current ratings (10-10), but Horsham Lad is within 4lb of that and still has the "+" to his name – not surprising after his Bangor performance.
Lisadell King does have the winning course form in the book, of course, but he’s had a more packed recent itinerary than many; and whilst I love Godfrey Maundrell to bits, his ride on the gelding behind Take The Stand at Aintree just erred on the side of unassertive, I thought (rightly? Wrongly? Discuss.
). He won’t want to leave Lisadell King with too much to do against this decent company.gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I’ve done well with Lisadell King this season, and while you may well be right about Godfrey Maundrell’s ride at Aintree, I can’t see him trouble the two 6-Y-Olds tonight.
I was hugely impressed by Bradley at Cheltenham, he got taken off his feet early on but his jumping was rock solid and the way he finished suggested that over another couple of furlongs he would be even better. I like Horsham Lad as a prospect for the future but feel Bradley will turn out to be the better of the two, whatever happens tonight and at the odds available he looks far better value.
Good Egg’s form looks good too but in general The UK hunters seem to have a few pounds in hand of their Irish counterparts this season.
In the absence of Mad Victor the race looks to be between these three.I’d agree 100% on your comments regarding Good Company but the opposition is dire and Alan Berry is riding exceptionally well this season even if some of his hold up tactics are hard on the heart! Although I’ve backed him in the past I couldn’t give Ryeman any chance at level weights if Good Company stays on his feet.
At the prices I’m more inclined to side with Ryeman, as I think a little bit too much is being made of his defeat off 90 in Newton Abbot’s handicap hunter chase last time – he’s just not a copper-bottomed stayer of 2m5f under Rules.
Good call, Grayson, I hope you were on?
Lisadell King emerges on top in the John Corbett Cup on Mackenzie & Harris’s current ratings (10-10), but Horsham Lad is within 4lb of that and still has the "+" to his name – not surprising after his Bangor performance.
Lisadell King does have the winning course form in the book, of course, but he’s had a more packed recent itinerary than many; and whilst I love Godfrey Maundrell to bits, his ride on the gelding behind Take The Stand at Aintree just erred on the side of unassertive, I thought (rightly? Wrongly? Discuss.
). He won’t want to leave Lisadell King with too much to do against this decent company.I think you were very unlucky, approaching the last I was sure Bradley had the race won but he drifted alarmingly on the run in which probably cost him the race, perhaps if the jockey has swiched his whip to his left hand the result might have been different. Re-viewing the race, however, I’d have to revise my thinking and I’m sure Lisadell King would have won had he stood up.
The day ended in profit though, the return on my hefty early EW (10-1), despite the rule 4, was big enough to cover the losses on Good Company with a fair bit to sparegc
Today is the day
ROULEZ COOL
has to live up to the hype, the 5-2 looks very generous considering the price he went off at in The Fohunters although it’s with slight reservations that I’m settling for him. I’d consider Coolefind, Ice Tea (despite the turn round in the wights with Turhen), Martha’s Kinsman and Take The Stand in that order to be the main dangers. The later’s form got a boost by the run of Lisadell King last night but I’ve always leant towards the younger improvers and that "system" has stood me well over the years so it’s RC for me
MAD VICTOR
with Polly Gundry in the saddle looks the one to be on in the 2m7f race. None of the younger horses appeal other than That Look but he’s not run for 618 days.
Although I’m fairly confident about my selections, at the odds available four ew doubles 2×2 as cover seems the sensible option, Roulez Cool and Coolefind (16-1) x Mad Victor (15-8) and That Look 8-1)
At the prices I’m more inclined to side with Ryeman, as I think a little bit too much is being made of his defeat off 90 in Newton Abbot’s handicap hunter chase last time – he’s just not a copper-bottomed stayer of 2m5f under Rules.
Good call, Grayson, I hope you were on?
Yep, in spades!
I was at the course last night, and David Pipe was evidently dropping big hints to Andrew and Ollie Jackson after the race that he’d love to go 2m summer novice chasing with Ryeman if they’ll let him – if memory serves Ollie was a mainstay at Pond House for many years, so the connections are certainly well enough established to facilitate that.For their part the Jacksons have now concluded that their charge has insufficient to offer over the pointing trip, especially on slower ground, so short hunter chases will be his preserve from hereon if they do keep him to the amateur ranks.
I think you were very unlucky, approaching the last I was sure Bradley had the race won but he drifted alarmingly on the run in which probably cost him the race, perhaps if the jockey has swiched his whip to his left hand the result might have been different. Re-viewing the race, however, I’d have to revise my thinking and I’m sure Lisadell King would have won had he stood up.
Bradley may be the one to take out of the race longer-term, and Fergal O’Brien is adamant the gelding would have won had he not picked up a shin injury turning in (to which the drifting late on was also attributed) – he is usually fairly forthright as a trainer anyway, but on this occasion was especially sure that Bradley was running all over everything leaving the back straight.
As a physical specimen Bradley actually appears better suited to Stratford than Cheltenham – he’s not a ruddy great hulk of a thing by any means – and he remains of interest for 2011.
Ditto eventual winner Hemington, another slight gelding who looked held when third in a lesser renewal of this last year, but was thought by the owner to be better than he’s been able to show so far this term. He had apparently lost confidence having being pitched straight into hunter company earlier in the season, rather than found some lollipop races between the flags.
On that basis, I’d expect an early 2010-11 campaign with Maz Scudamore in points, before returning to hunters late in the season with tonight’s main event the ultimate target. He’s reckoned to need a sharp, flat track, decent going and a stamina test, which rules out a lot of options, but maybe they can find him something around the very quick-drying speed tracks at Cottenham and Higham early doors, and hope something else ensures they’re run as proper tests.
As for Lisadell King? We were all standing in the parade ring, eyes fixed on the last, waiting, waiting for Godfrey to boot the gelding into the last; and whilst it’s to be admired to a large extent that it’s not the rider’s way to get after his animals with the stick too much, we just wondered if Lisadell King needed his mind making up for him a bit approaching the last.
Today is the day
ROULEZ COOL
has to live up to the hype, the 5-2 looks very generous considering the price he went off at in The Fohunters although it’s with slight reservations that I’m settling for him. I’d consider Cool Fiend, Ice Tea (despite the turn round in the wights with Turhen), Martha’s Kinsman and Take The Stand in that order to be the main dangers. The later’s form got a boost by the run of Lisadell King last night but I’ve always leant towards the younger improvers and that "system" has stood me well over the years so it’s RC for me
Roulez Cool will be helped by any rain, although gains around the likes of Bangor last season suggested he’s not ground contingent. Certainly rainfall on watered ground sumped things up nicely for him at Ashorne last time out, but regardless of that assistance he was impressive enough to suggest the Cheltenham experience hadn’t dented him.
This is a murderously tight renewal on Mackenzie & Harris ratings, with no standout in the field and most entering the contest with something to prove;
Turthen 11-0 –
Silver Adonis 10-13 +
Here’s Johnny 10-12 +
Coolefind 10-12
Ice Tea 10-12
Roulez Cool 10-12
Take The Stand 10-12
Templer 10-12
Southwestern 10-12 –
Simonsberg 10-10 (2008-9 rating)
Drybrook Bedouin 10-9
Marblehead 10-9 $
Martha’s Kinsman 10-8 +
Dennis The Legend 10-8
Border Fusion 10-6 $
Oranger 10-3 $Silver Adonis and Here’s Johnny’s ratings were accorded to them following wins around very different courses to this one (Aintree National and Exeter respectively), but their best winning chase form around sharper tracks under Rules prior to that wouldn’t have been too far shy of those efforts.
Attitude cost Turthen as much as relative ability behind Ice Tea at Bangor, and he didn’t have it in safe keeping when bludering at Wincanton last time, either. Ice Tea, I fear, may have a bit too much competition up front for his liking from Marblehead and maybe Take The Stand as well, and could be goaded into doing too much.
He’s not the most progressive here by any means, but at the moment I’m leaning towards an each-way punt on COOLEFIND. Deliberately kept aside for a spring campaign, he was Bill Warner’s first runner of the year when recording a fifth course win at Guilsborough (flat, left-handed, imagine a less tampered-with Haydock
)on April 11th, and the Southwell victory a fortnight later reaffirmed that he’s not dependent on stiffer tracks under Rules, either. His rider’s had a smashing second half of the season, also, including in hunter chases.MAD VICTOR
with Polly Gundry in the saddle looks the one to be on in the 2m7f race. None of the younger horses appeal other than That Look but he’s not run for 618 days.
The only slight note of caution is how the gelding will go for what is effectively a substitute rider, though that was a nettle they were going to have to grasp with him soon anyway. Regular partner Claire Allen was going to retire from the saddle at the end of term (at 24!), but had that retirement brought forward when smashing her wrist at Upper Sapey last weekend.
Polly Gundry is best mates with Allen, though, so I can’t imagine they won’t have sat down long and hard and discussed tactics.
That Look is definitely the fly in the ointment; and as Don Cantillon hunts and campaigns pointers in the same East Anglia Area as Gina Andrews primarily rides in, he will have known exactly what she’s about before booking her for the first time. Don can ready one, and he can land a touch alright – "watch the market" just about sums it up.
Lady Myfanwy has the winning form in this event, and was impressive again at Bredwardine a fortnight ago. No particular concerns on the jockey front per se, as Sally Randell has a couple of Rules wins to her name, but I do prefer Gundry and Andrews a bit more.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
). He won’t want to leave Lisadell King with too much to do against this decent company.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.