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2.30 Wolverhampton – Tamasou, won off a higher mark in the past, fully effective over course and distance, weak race, market vibes imply that he’s fit enough for his first run of the season. 11/2
1.35 Newb. Exceptionally competitive early season handicap, full of lightly raced, well bred sorts from top yards, but I’m going to take a chance with All Action at 8/1. I think most of the opposition will want further in time, and he could be the sort to catch fresh looking at his profile so far.
2.00 Ripon – I was looking at Zebrano, and Keys of Cyprus, but in the end decided that the race is too trappy. No bet the call.
3.00 Ripon – The Marwin Koukash Chester Cup trial. Was looking at Exemplary as I think he may get a soft lead and there is no better executer than Joe Fanning when this happens, in the end I decided that NO BET is the call though.
3.45 Newbury – NO BET, I would imagine everything will gather against the stand side rail, in which case it will be whoever gets the clearest of runs wins, seeing as that can’t be predicted by the form book or the betting market, I will leave the race alone.
I always take Sundays off so no bets or form study, as a result there won’t be anything posted on here on a Sunday or Monday from me.
Week 1 – 0 winners 4 Bets, -4 points
I’ve read many and tried a few staking plans over the years, but now all of my bets are the same. Everyone is different but what I found is that when I had a losing run, or my confidence was knocked I would start having more 1 point bets, this in turn made me have more speculative bets and therefore increased the losing run. By the time one came along that I really fancied I wouldn’t have as much on as I should, and was then kicking myself if it won. So now I keep things simple, try and cut out the speculative bets, and no longer have the scenario of wishing I had more on the winner, which I’m sure you’ve all had. Psychology does play a part in punting, and I’ve learnt not to be hard on myself when backing a loser, and even more importantly not being hard on myself when I’ve had a winner.
Everyone has losing runs, but as long as your methodology is sound you will be fine in the long run.
In the 310P i like the look of Crown Choice who has a very good record fresh and ran well off this mark last season in a better race.
This may be 6F but at Ponty it is more like 6 1/2 being so stiff so his late run may be good enough, i am sure you will find something better off on ratings but my money is already down
3.10 Ponte. – The 2 that I’m interested in are Tombi and Crown Choice, both have gone well fresh. The difference between the 2 is that if Tombi can bounce back to his best for a new yard I think he will win, Crown Choice needs to improve trying 6 furlongs for the first time. The market vibes for both are good, Crown Choice is currently 7/1, and Tombi is 9/1. I will back both as I don’t think the race has a great amount of depth, and I want to take the top two in the market on.
Wildcat Wizard looks one to keep an eye on in the market just before the off. Moved from Paul Cole to Dandy Nicholls, he’s had two quiet runs for Dandy and has dropped six pounds as a result. First time blikers today make him look interesting at 20/1.
Glad you like Crown Choice too, best of luck with Tombi, liked the horse when with JHJ but although he has got better lately i could never back a Geoff Harker horse for the life of me!
Nice price though and this must be his easiest assignment in a long time
Tuffers,
I did look at Wildcat but his run 16 days ago was awful, I would expect him to pop up at some point during the summer though.
Even with the Rule 4 got money back from the place but without doubt Crown Choice needs 7f! Think they will have to admit that now.
Nice race from the winner, David barron has his horses running very well. This one ran a superb race on Derby Day last year, swooping late right down the outside over the top of them all with a peach of a ride from Philip Makin.
As a layer I was very happy to see it happen, but Tombi just now…drifted like a barge, missed the break and never out of the back 2, very tenderly ridden in the final furlong.
As a horse racing fan it’s disgusting to see.
Whilst we wait to see whether Petski puts anything up for the 4.00 at Southwell I thought I’d mention a big priced contender in the race – Mandalay Prince. It’s an awful race and although he hasn’t won for over three years he ran well enough at this track over 2m. This drop back to 1m6f should suit and at 33/1 he’ll carry my 50p e/w
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