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For a number of years I’ve been making decent money as a fixed odds punter, and trader on Betfair. My method has always been very simple. I’ve been a form student and race reader for about 20 years, and when the exchanges started to take off I noticed that most of the horses I was backing were starting at significantly shorter odds than what I had taken in the morning. I came to the conclusion that financially I would be in a much better position if I had a much larger bet in the morning and traded it back at shorter odds later in the day. For example rather than having £50 at 10/1, with a bet that stood me at 500/50, if I got £500 on at 10/1, and traded it all back at 7/1, I would be in a position of 1500/0. Surely a no brainer?
This worked well for a number of years, occasionaly I would get it wrong and would have to trade out at a loss, but over a 6 year period I made around a £70,000 tax free profit, which for a second income was very nice indeed.
Eventually all of my accounts got closed and the accounts that I opened under other peoples names didn’t last long either. I then employed 2 people to put cash on for me at the local shops, but after about 6 months they were getting restricted to SP only.
I only bet in handicaps, and have always looked for horses that have the profile of a horse that has been plotted up, this way I know the odds are going to shorten if they are "off".
Since the good old days of being able to get on at the right prices, I now solely bet on Betfair, and have had to change my strategy. I still study form but now I wait until later in the day before I place my bets. Each day I will tell you which races that I’m looking at. Some days I will leave it alone if the market vibes are bad, the other days I will post the bet between half an hour and an hour before the start of the race.
I’ve been showing a healthy level stakes profit since I’ve been doing this, and thought I would share it with those of you that have the opportunity to check the site during the course of the day.
Good Luck.
Very interesting read, thanks. Will try to get on at about 4 and see what you come up with.
Tight looking race with several looking like they have had ‘soft’ races recently.
Exit Smiling is down on a handy mark now and could go well.
Good Luck with whoever you select
No Bet.
Exit Smiling was the horse I was interested in, as he’s well handicapped, and the yard is in slightly better form than when he had his 2 runs earlier in the year.
Although nibbled this morning he is weaker than I would have expected so I will therefore give the race a swerve.
Wednesday 13th April – Looking at 4.20 Catterick, 3.20 Cheltenham.
King’s Counsel and Secret Dancer?
4.20 Catterick – No Bet
3.20 Cheltenham – The 2 I was interested in were Secret Dancer and Made In Time. If the ground had been good to soft I would have gone for Secret Dancer but he’s got a history of knee trouble, and quickish ground on an undulating course could undo him. Made In Time has a history of breathing trouble, but so had Get Me Out Of Here prior to running a stormer in the County Hurdle. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Made In Time had had a small breathing op since his last run, I can see his jockey sitting off the pace early and take it up after the last. Currently freely available at 7/1.
310Bev: Takes a leap of faith to back anything here but if pushed i’d have a go at Bahamian Music from the in form Richard Fahey yard.
430Che: Another tough race to call with Sir Kezbah absolutely being thrown in after ‘hosing up’ LTO. There are a few others too who look well in but i have taken a chance on Jim Olds
Good Luck with your selectionsGDC, the thing that I’ve noticed over the years is that the cloudy picture of even the trickiest handicaps tends to clear as post time approaches. In this years County hurdle for example, there were only 2 horses that were on my shortlist that were shorter an hour before the off than they were in the morning. They were Final Approach, and Get Me Out Of Here, they finished 1st and 2nd. Hopefully the waters surrounding todays 2 handicaps in question will be clearer by mid afternoon. If not then no bet will be the call.
Pet: Nice one and understood.
Going back to the County Hurdle, Final Approach was one of my bankers on trends
backed him for 2 weeks up to the race in the hope that he ran! What an excellent ride from Ruby BTW.3.10 Beverley – Nave, unfurnished last year, and looks as though he should improve again this year. I’m hoping his stable companion, Green Lightning, will set a strong pace, which should test the stamina doubts over half of the field. Currently best priced at 13/2.
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This was discussed here before.
The serious form student can anticipate the price rallies and trade. There will be some exceptions but overall it should work.In football fixed odds not so much, because the price shifts are infrequent and you can’t tell which way they ‘ll go.
To become form connoisseur and to be able to accurately assess entire fields is the difficult part of it.
Also, unlike football, you can’t do it for all countries’ racing.
So a UK expert cannot be a France expert, unless he makes separate studies for France.I thought Nave ran a decent race today, just lacking the pace of the first two inside the final furlong, there are definitely races to be won with him when he steps up in trip.
Froddo,I certainly agree that you need to specialise, you won’t see me putting races up in France or Ireland.
You would have read in my initial post that the majority of my bets are in handicaps. My preferred route is to back horses who are on, or below their last winning mark, the market will generally tell you if a return to form is expected. I also like to back horses who are open to improvement running in handicaps, you have to be a lot more selective with this type of horse. In my opinion it is much harder for a trainer to gauge the level of a horses ability at home, yet hide it’s light under a bushel in it’s early runs on the racetrack. There will be countless number of failed punts on lightly raced 3 year olds during the first few months of the season. Unless I have high regard for the stable I would rather have a bit of form to work with rather than following punts when there is no racecourse evidence to back it.
backed him for 2 weeks up to the race in the hope that he ran! What an excellent ride from Ruby BTW.
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