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For last year’s race, I used the Tail-End System, which I had just read. In this, one works from the big-priced horses towards the small-priced horses, stopping when one has enough selections. [Other bits to it as well.]
Perhaps not the best race to use it on, as these are the past few winners:-
2009 Russian Trigger 7 10-9 8/1 V R A Dartnall Jack Doyle 146
2008 Himalayan Trail 9 9-9 16/1 Mrs S J Smith Tjade Collier 145
2007 Baron Windrush 9 10-9 12/1 N A Twiston-Davies Jason Maguire 148
2006 G V A Ireland 8 10-3 5/1F F Flood R Walsh 140
2005 Philson Run 9 10-2 14/1 Nick Williams P Carberry 137
2003 Intelligent 7 10-5 6/1 Mrs John Harrington R M Power 153
2002 The Bunny Boiler 8 10-0 5/1 Noel Meade N Williamson 145Winning prices 8/1, 16/1, 12/1, 5/1, 14/1, 6/1 and 5/1, so quite small.
Familiar trends of no winners above 11 stone, and ages being 7-9yo.
Thought I’d post this, to get some runs on the board. Going out to buy some Stella, which will help me concentrate when I look at the form.
Sorry, does anyone know what kind of going they are eventually going to end up with by tomorrow afternoon?
Well, I must admit I’m pretty sick of h’caps.
One last Hurrah, to show that we ain’t beat!
Sorry, Moe, my £2 place Mon Mome @ 80 outweighed your 25pEW @ 100/1 Calgary Bay. Us little people always KNEW that 3rd place belonged to us, and not one of the big guys.
I’ll sort of provide a list of runners later in the post.
People who read my threads of more than a year ago, when I attempted horse-by-horse precis know that I find it difficult to look at and write up more than 6-10 horses per day. Given that there are 18 horses in the race, this means that tonight is a no-goer. Consequently, we are reduced to the all-too-often Gerald
HATCHET-JOB
. I know this will come as a great sadness to Big Buck’s, who was really looking forward to reading this.
First of all, Chuck all the 11 stoners.
Secondly, ye will know that I like my pedigrees and breeding stuff and numbers.
Conduit Mare Profile Index
0.74 Russian Trigger
0.69 Himalayan Trail
0.36 Baron Windrush
0.64 GVA Ireland
0.54 Philson Run
0.85 Intelligent
0.54 The Bunny BoilerYou can work out who I chucked out of this lot:-
0.36 Halcon Genelardais
0.54 Miko De Beauchene
0.54 Kornati Kid
0.83 Le Beau Bai
0.74 Synchronised
0.83 Iris De Balme
1.10 Fortification
0.89 Giles Cross
1.00 Badgerlaw
1.00 Inoma James
0.33 Gypsy George
0.57 Mark The Book
0.73 Oscar Park
0.83 Ballydub
1.00 Lorum Leader
0.74 Sherwoods Folly
1.44 L’Aventure
0.40 Morgan BeThird, chuck all 10yos+.
Left with
Gypsy George
Mark The Book
Sherwoods FollyBeing lazy, I was drawn towards the first one.
10Jan09 Ayr ( 25 Sft ,RPR141 )
He was flat out most of the way, but kept galloping and another mile should suit him – Tim Walford, trainer
27Nov08 Uttoxeter ( 24 Sft ,RPR122 )
We’ll certainly think about the Welsh National, but he would need to get in the handicap. If he was a few pounds out, we’d probably run, but if he was a long way out we’d go for something else. He’s a grand horse, and had a good blow after that so he’ll come on for it – Tim Walford, trainer
03May08 Uttoxeter ( 24 GS ,RPR139 )
That’s it for him now. He’s off for his summer break, and will be trained next season with the Welsh National in mind. This ground was on the quick side for him, but he got away with it. He’s a very clever jumper, and he already wants a trip – [trainer]
07Mar08 Ayr ( 25 Hy ,RPR128 )
He could be a good horse one day, maybe the sort for the Welsh National or even the Grand National. To see him win like that today was great, especially for his owner, who is a working man, and who had a proper bet on him.- [trainer]
I’ve got 25s about Iris de Balme, but one whose profile looks very promising to me, is Inoma James.
Doesn’t like quick ground? It’s very drizzly up ‘ere so bodes well for him. [had 50p ew on CB, and was going to have an ew on all the big priced horses but changed my mind as I thought Calgary Bay and Tricky Trickster would cover me for the ‘staying on for third place at a big price’ bet….just dawned on me that TT didn’t fit that category because he wasn’t a big price today; rats..]Petula doesn’t give up on Badgerlaw, does she, or perhaps he always expects his little trip to England at this time of year.
- Total Posts 17716
Fortification should (apparantly) like the step up in trip. He has a nice claimer and if ground doesn’t get too bad (he prefers gd/sft) he’s a decent each way at 25’s.
Fortification should (apparantly) like the step up in trip. He has a nice claimer and if ground doesn’t get too bad (he prefers gd/sft) he’s a decent each way at 25’s.
Yeah, I like him as well.
He had a bad race last time around, but I think he’s over that now. Fingers Crossed!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Must admit there’s a few horses here that I don’t know, such as Fortification, Giles Cross and Inoma James. need to look at them in the morning when Compos Mentis.
I’ve got a great confession to make. Although I wrote in the race thread last year that I don’t think Badgerlaw stays 4 miles (even though he had come 2nd the previous year), when I woke up this morning my first thought was to bet Badgerlaw. For some reason, betfair hadn’t opened the market, so I couldn’t.
L’aventure for me. Just cos I always back this one, costs me a fortune but I can’t help it..
Why does the description of L’Aventure always say ‘ungenuine mare’? I don’t think she’s ungenuine. It always bothers me when I read it.
Not sure about Gypsy George, Gerald. Record at 3m 2f+ is P08. Completely destroys every single trend and conduit mare trend but I’ve done L’Aventure EW at 20s, mainly because I’ve had a stonking Friday and a decent Thursday (Albertas Run, placed seconds before the off at 16s, Arcalis and Najaf EW double, Soldatino. Just a bugger Safari Journey couldn’t get 5th).
However, practically every trend was broken this week (Arkle winner too old, Supreme Novices’ winner hadn’t run in a pattern race, Champion Hurdler hadn’t won a Grade 1 or 2 this season, R&SA winner hadn’t finished 1st or 2nd on every completed start, Ballymore winner hadn’t won over 2m 4f (well, if you don’t include PTP races, which obviously I didn’t), Albertas Run had no CD form, Soldatino’s sire hadn’t won a Group/Grade 1, etc) and perhaps it could continue here. Easily the best horse in the race and down 5lb for her 5th in the Vodka Gold Cup. She’s won off 131 twice and in a weak contest (and my god what a weak weak contest it is, can’t believe the standard of some of these, Class 4 chasers ffs) she should go very well.
Doubled her up with Tranquil Tiger for kicks.
Yeah, the CMP figure for L’Aventure is obviously "wrong", but I haven’t worked out why yet. Would help if I knew how the figures were worked out
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