April 24, 2001 at 23:45 #3915DaylightMember
- Total Posts 369
— Posted by Dave G on 11:26 am on April 10, 2001
Melvyn, Thanks in advance and I’ll start the ball rolling then. What is the main thing you look for when tipping up a big race, and have you ever had a trainer or horses connections ask you not to put forward a good word for their horse so as not to crowd the price for them? Cheers Dave G
The main thing is value. To decide what the value bet is I look at the race trends, draw, pace, handicap/speed ratings, going, class, trainer form etc IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ve never been asked by connections to swerve a horse.
<br>— Posted by Chris on 1:14 pm on April 10, 2001
Hi Melvyn, I’m wondering whether you are tempted to leave the Racing Post and set up a subscription service? Given the following you have you would surely make far more money than you are paid at present. I’m also curious as to your view on those two Mirror journalists who were "done" for tipping shares they had bought themselves to raise the price. In theory, you could tip what you consider to be a danger to the horse you actually fancy to get a better price for yourself. ( Purely hypothetical, I know,)
IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ve been tempted to set up on my own, yes. But youÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ve got to weigh up the risks/hassle of going it alone versus the security of wage slavery. The certainty of the monthly cheque has tipped the scales in favour of the Racing Post ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â¦. so far.No real opinion about the City Slickers.There is a danger for an unscrupulous tipster to skew markets ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ more so in spread betting than fixed odds, hence the stricter controls ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ but if you start going down that road, I think it is the beginning of the end. My tips in the paper are what I would personally back at the time of writing. Sometimes (because of different ground conditions than expected, a late jockey switch, or a late piece of information/inspiration) IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ll have a different bet the next day, but 95 cent of the time IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢m scrambling to get on the Pricewise tip when the phone lines open like everyone else.
<br>— Posted by Jay Torbitt on 1:17 pm on April 10, 2001
Hi Melvyn, and thanks for taking time out to answer some of our questions. What exactly was it about Papillion in last year’s National that made it stand out at 33-1 above the others? And do you often receive messages of thanks from grateful punters? Cheers Mel, we owe you a lot!
PapillionÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s Irish National form showed he stayed, he had two or three bits of form that showed his class, he represented an excellent trainer/jockey combination, and I liked the look of his warm up run in a hurdle race.I sometimes receive the odd thank you message, and a very occasional bottle of champagne, but after a losing run there are also messages from the other end of the scale.
<br>— Posted by RR on 1:59 pm on April 10, 2001
Melvyn, thanks for taking the trouble to answer our questions. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â My first question is one I ask all serious punters that I meet: how do you prevent the inevitable long losing runs from interfering with your judgement?
If youÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ve got a big enough bank, and enough confidence in yourself ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ born out of past results, not present ego ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ then long losing runs should not bother you. If you are playing at bigger prices, they are inevitable. They used to worry me when I started in the game, but if you keep doing the same things, keep working hard and keep to your principles it will turn round. I actually think IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢m a worse punter after a few winners as I tend to have a few ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‹Å“throw-awayÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ or ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‹Å“just-in-case-betsÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢. Andy Beyer had a good chapter in one of his books ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ the Winning Horseplayer I think ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ about money management and its importance.
Secondly, when deciding how much to stake on a selection are you guided by a method such as the Kelly Criterion or do you take a more flexible approach?
I stake on ‘feel’ rather than science.
Third, IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢d like to know your favourite websites. (By the way, it was your answer to this question in the Racing Post some time back that led me too take a look at the C4 forum ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ thanks.)
As well as the obvious – sportinglife.com, and racingpost.co.uk ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ I try to keep in touch via some of the message boards like theracingforum and http://pub37.ezboard.com/bdvds2000racingforum. Teamtalk.com ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ a big player in general sports ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ has just opened a racing section. Their site is fast and very professional
Finally, did you ever post on the C4 forum? <br>Once or twice.
<br>— Posted by jez on 3:08 pm on April 10, 2001
Hello Melvyn Thanks for answering our questions. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I have been following pricewise since the start of 2000 with some wonderful winners and memories. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I even started recording all the pricewise selection races on television from August so if they won I could play them back and watch them again. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â It does annoy me that Big Mac on Tv always goes on about magnificent pricewise does it again giving publicity to it and making bookmakers even more scrooge like in their practices to make things hard for pricewise followers. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Someone might start following and then get 13 losers in a row and then give up, then out of the next couple there could be a 14/1 winner. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â So it is not for everyone as there are inevitable losing runs that are bound to occur. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Last year there was losing runs of 10 three times 12,13,14,15,16 17,18,20,21 and 22 and yet still made a profit of 409 points approx. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â What other service could do that. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â My question to you really is I have notice in recent months bookmakers making it hard or impossible to get the prices given by pricewise. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Hills last week used the excuse of 4 nonrunners lowest 20/1 to cut bindarees price to 10/1 rom12/1. A while back Coral the only bookmaker given cut their price within a minute making it impossible to get the price. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Have you ever considered boycotting a particular bookmaker and not giving them the business knowing they are unlikely to lay the prices and if they do not for long. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Also do you think that when you go for a certain horse that the trainer has to be in good form and have a good recent strike rate.
Bookmakers cutting morning prices is, of course, the most frustrating aspect of value betting. It really used to wind me up, putting in hours of study then being knocked back to Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£20 by AR Dennis and the like. Hills have got a lot worse in the last year or so, and IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ve never had much luck with Corals. But, Surrey Sports are now a serious player, and youÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ve got internet options via bet 247, blue square etc, as well as the person to person sites, so as one door closes another opens.In the real world you might be best going for the second best price in the market, knowing that you are going to get knocked back by the bookmaker with the biggest price ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ especially if that is a stand alone price.On the subject of kicking out bookmakers who refuse to lay a decent bet, it is a debate we have had lots of times in the the office over the years. The concensus is that the Pricewise boxes provide a service for the racing public and not just for Pricewise punters. If you fancied a horse that was not a Pricewise tip you’d be annoyed that we had kicked out, say, Coral if they were going best price, and were happy to lay it.Trainer form is something I factor in to the selection proceedure, but so do the odds compilers, so itÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s a question of if they over or under compensate for it.
<br> — Posted by Montelado on 3:32 pm on April 10, 2001
Hi Melvyn, Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â <br>in a handicap of, say, more than 18 runners (flat or NH), on average how many horses would you back ? If more than one, how do you stagger your bets in accordance with your value rating? Thanks.
I don’t have a specific rule. It could be none, one two, three or four depending on the shape of the race. Typically, I would have more on the bigger priced hores, and save on the shorter ones.
<br> — Posted by Scoot on 3:40 pm on April 10, 2001
Melvyn Hi! <br>I would like to know if you get your information for Tipping from several different sources, and do you pay for the information? Have you ever been given false information by your sources on purpose, and found it out later after the horse ran? Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â <br>Thank You For Your Time Sir!
I use several different form sources. I don’t pay for ‘information’, so I’ve never been put away by false information.
<br>— Posted by Johayro on 8:30 pm on April 10, 2001
Hi Mel, good to see a proper tipster on here. Can I ask you what you think of Raceform On Saturday? As I think it’s gone a long way downhill recently. Do you take much notice of draw biases? It seems a very popular subject.
No comment on Raceform On Saturday – which is published, like the Racing Post, by Trinity Mirror.<br>As for draw biases, I do take a lot of notice of them. But, like a lot of things in racing, it is easier to work out what the draw effect was after a race than predict what the effect will be before a race. Its also a lot more subtle than just backing, say, the low numbers at Chester. Ground, pace and fresh strips of ground – like the stands side strip which will be in use at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting soon – also need to be accounted for. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
<br>— Posted by terry on 8:58 pm on April 10, 2001
Melvyn — you quite often tip a horse that Ladbrokes have ‘gone short’ on. Is it a case of ‘great minds thinking alike’ or do you take into account what Ladbrokes or indeed other firms are offering about a particular horse when you evaluate a race?
Over the years I’ve noticed that there are one or two aspects of form study – and not the bog standard ones either – that Ladbrokes are particularly hot on. So we do often think alike – being against The Whistling Teal on Saturday for example – but they are not the great all-knowing monster that McCririck thinks they are.Some of my biggest winners, including Heidi at 33-1 this year, have been top price with the magic sign, and it would certainly not put me off tipping a horse if they were biggest.It’s fairly obvious to me that than some trainer/jockeys have strong links to certain bookmakers, and if they are noticably short (or long) about their horses, I factor that into the equation.
<br>— Posted by Cara on 9:21 pm on April 10, 2001
Hi Melvyn hope you are well ! just a quick question How did you start in the racing world ?? can you give me some advice as to how I could get started as a racing journalist.Do you personally feel it is better to have been a jockey or trainer or been associated with racing before coming a journalist and which is your favourite racing channel? and presenter?
I started with Peter Jones (now Chairman of the Tote) at Trainers Record in deepest Dorset after University before moving on to the Racing Post.The best way into Racing Journalism is to get a foot-in-the-door job (usually badly paid) in one of the traditional ‘feeder’ company’s like Timeform, Raceform, Superform then move on to other things once you’ve served your apprenticeship. Also try Weatherbys, Racing Post, Racing And Football Outlook, and the growing band of internet sites focussing on racing.Better NOT to have been a trainer or jockey – they owe too many favours to too many old friends to be objective.Racing Channel: Channel 4Presenter: No Comment
<br>— Posted by Shaun on 10:25 pm on April 10, 2001
Hi Melvyn, <br>and thanks for taking time out to answer our questions. I have only recently started reading your articles in the Racing Post, and find them very helpful. At what age did you get involved with racing, and where did you start? <br>See Above
Do you back your selections?<br> <br>A good percentage, yes. I try to make it obvious in the copy when I’ll be swerving a race.I prefer flat racing to NH, do you have a preference? Not really, I’m an all rounder
What criteria do you use when selecting a race for your tips? If there are any value bets available.
The best races are when you actively want to take on the favourite, and fancy one of the bigger priced runnersThank you once again for your time.
<br>— Posted by SIR TRISTRAM on 10:28 pm on April 10, 2001
Hello Melvin, thanx heaps for your time, Q.Obviously you must know other tipsters personally(pros.,and newspaper tipsters), which ones do you hold in high esteem and why and for what reasons? (ie.Isiris – cause it is genuine inside info/Nick Fox – cause he spends so many hours studying relentlessly!) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
Isiris will be getting even more ‘inside’ information for the next few months wont he ?It would cause too much trouble to rate friends/colleagues on the Racing Post.Of the non-racing post pundits, the free-thinking Nick Mordin, the rock solid professional Jim McGrath and those with good track records (Henry Rix, Mark Nelson) are the ones I respect the most.
Me again Melvin, Q.Do you make a second income from your own column if so on what scale?(im not the IRS by the way[just kidding]) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
I bet in hundreds not thousands
<br>—Posted by michael on 12:43 am on April 11, 2001
Hi Melvyn I would like to know that if you cant get the price that you advise, as you know many punters can’t, would you still back the horse at a shorter price and if so how much shorter price would you be willing to take. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â <br><br>That’s a big question, and I’m afraid the answer is – it just depends. If you think something is a genuine 16-1 shot (like Inis Cara in the National) then you are going to take the 66 50 40 33 25 and 20. But if you are only just getting tempted in because a horse is 10-1, then you are not going to take the 8-1.<br>
Posted by Evertonian on 12:50 am on April 11, 2001
Hi Melvyn Two questions Do you back all your selections or just select horses for the jobs sake ?
No. I don’t back all of them. Some races I don’t fancy at all, but you can’t put a headline on a 500 word feature saying No Bet Today.
Whats the point in tipping a horse at a stand out price with one firm when all others are shorter, because come the morning the firm out of line will have come in line and the value reason for tipping may have disappeared?
They don’t always come into line – their odds compilers might be convinced the horse does not go on the ground, or has worked badly a week ago or whatever. To not tip a horse under the circumstances you suggest would be letting the bookmaker off. Better to let the five pound and ten pound punters get on.
<br>— Posted by michael on 11:39 am on April 11, 2001
Hi Melvyn Are newspaper tipsters put under any pressure to show profits and do you know of any that have been dismissed from their job for showing consistent losses.
Most newspaper tipsters I know put pressure on themselves rather than have it applied by some gestapo-style editor. It tends to be more carrot (pay rises and bonus for, say, winning the naps table) than stick, but if you continually under perfoprm you might find yourself shunted sideways like in any other sphere. Also, in a lot of papers the racing journalists have lots of other things to do – page lay outs, subbing copy, answering the phone to mad punters Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â – and tipping might only take up 5 or 10 per cent of their time. A sports editor is more to come down on a lay out/factual error than give you grief for not tipping the winner of a 20 runner handicap. The line between relative success/failure is very fine. All the tipsters in the Press Challenge table in the Racing Post have tipped between 23 and 26 per cent of winners, but there is nearly Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£200 between top and bottom.
<br> — Posted by Keith the teeth on 1:25 pm on April 11, 2001
Hello Melvyn Pricewise only give selections on Saturday or quality midweek meetings. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Does this mean that you don’t think there are value betting opportunities with the bread and butter meetings , I find it less difficult to find value winners in midweek rather than Saturday.
The decision to price up a race is solely the bookmakers. If they price it up I feature it. If they don’t there is nothing I can do
Also You never seem to select short priced runners but surely if a 3/1 shot should really be 6/4 that would be a worthy selection ? Thanks K T T
In theory, yes, if you can back genuine 6-4 shots at 3-1 you are getting value, but you need such a high percentage of winners at the lower odds to make a decent return. Personally, I’m a better judge of a 12-1 shot that should be 8-1 than a 2-1 shot that should be 7-4.
<br> — Posted by Shay Monue on 7:38 pm on April 11, 2001
It was commented in some paper that you pointed out gambles on horses such as Papillion and Give the Slip rather than select them as value winners. Was there any truth in this or is people putting you down because of your success ? Thanks in advance
I just tip to the prices in front of me at the time. I’m not interested in who ‘started’ the gamble.
<br>— Posted by bluenote on 8:03 pm on April 11, 2001
Hi Melvyn, Do you think good tipsters are born with a gut-instinct for the game, or can it be learned from a (form) book? Taking the gut-instinct theory a stage further, do you believe in a ‘sixth sense’? Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
I think tipping is something that can be learned. Nobody expects a doctor to have just a gut instict. They learn through books and experience. Once you’ve done the basics you get a certain ‘feel’ for diagnosing illness, just like you can get a ‘feel’ for solving certain races / horses but its all based on logic.I get by happily on just the five senses.
<br>— Posted by goodfella on 10:04 pm on April 11, 2001
hello melvyn spoken to you on a number of occassions and you suggested that you may be starting an internet service to counter the fact that the bookies are no longer pricing up average mid week showcase races… any progress? also i follow you and henry rix and it is funny how many times henry asks us to ring him before 9 on saturdays and tips the same selections as you ! du you two discuss selections often ? Inis Cara was a good example.
There are plans afoot to have ‘live’ pricewise boxes on the racing post site with accompanying tipping copy (racing and sports) but there have been the usual technical difficulties and it has not been decided just who is going to be doing the tipping. I think they are talking weeks rather than months before we can unveil it to the waiting world.I worked with Henry for a couple of years at Racing Post and we have similar ideas/techniques, so we can often second guess each others tips. But, I donÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t colude with him. I don’t want him ruining the price for me – although he did a good job with Inis Cara.
<br>— Posted by micky9 on 12:16 am on April 12, 2001
hello melv i use my own computer program, i have always belived that you use one as its the only way i have found that i can find some decent price winners, how about you?
I like the way computers have made so many things about form study easier, but do not use a programme. If it works for you, great.<br>
<br> — Posted by don on 10:19 am on April 12, 2001
hello mel i recently tried to back one of your horses at 20/1 with victor chandler and phone up at 9am to take a price but was met with an engaged sound and at 9.03am after several redials i was greeted with sorry but the price is 12/1 now i am sure they took the phone off the hook until 9.03am then said they took bets on it i think the racing post should pull the plug on bookies that do this and not display there prices in the odds comparison if they are not likely to lay any money on them what do you think?
I think its very bad practice, but unfortunately not that uncommon. See above for answer to similar question
<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â — Posted by jez on 10:34 am on April 12, 2001
Hi Melvyn how long have you been doing the pricewise column and are you going to be doing it for a long while yet(hope so). Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â How do you decide who is going to do the column on any given day or week seeing as Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Tom Segal Andrew Barr and Mel Cullinan do it sometimes. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Are you confident pricewise will show a profit this year too or do you think with everything that has gone on, bad ground, foot and mouth , Cheltenham abandoned, a crazy national that this year is best forgotten
I’ve been doing Pricewise for eight years.I write the copy unless its my day off or I’m on holiday. Tom Segal tends to substitute when I’m away.Pricewise has yet to finish in the red – see table below – so I’d be hopeful that profitable trend will continue.
Pricewise record – last eight years
Year Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â bets Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â points staked Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â profit Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â %profit on turnover<br>2000 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 336 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 629 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â +419 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 67%<br>1999 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 483 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1292 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â +540 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 42% Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â <br>1998 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 469 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1572 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â +405 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 26% <br>1997 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 269 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 786 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â +288 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 37%<br>1996 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 286 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 788 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â +60 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 7% <br>1995 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 275 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 654 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â +341 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 52%<br>1994 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 313 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 948 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â +144 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 15%<br>1993 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 252 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 838 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â +265 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 32% <br>
— Posted by black stallion on 7:32 pm on April 12, 2001
On variable we can’t use when analising a race is the Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â weight of each horse. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â But I know for a fact before any stable has a touch this is one of their key factors. Do you feel this information should be made public? p.s you also drive me mad, I put a tips up on my site the evening before racing, next day its your selection, I can’t Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â get on at the best price, do you get on. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Cheers.
Horse weights would be very useful, but they’d proably have to be weighed at the track, so could not be included in the previous days paper. Unless, that is, somebody stumps up the money to have a weighing machine in every stable. Sorry about driving you mad.For me, getting on depends on the bookmaker / if the race is an ante post race / and how mad the rush is to get on. <br>
— Posted by Daylight on 10:37 am on April 14, 2001
Hi Mel, Due to your popularity, do you feel compelled to give a tip out on a Saturday even though you would prefer not too, as you don’t really fancy anything?
Sometimes, yes. As I said before, the one point bets tend to be because I’ve got to tip something in a race
<br>— Posted by ALI on 7:10 pm on April 14, 2001
Hello Melvin Would you ever back an odds on shot?
In theory, yes. Iin practice, no.
<br>— Posted by Escorial on 9:17 pm on April 14, 2001
Thanks for taking the time to do this Melvyn. I much prefer National Hunt racing. Under which code do you achieve most success ? Its fairly levelOn the flat, I`m constantly looking for horses that have run to achieve a handicap mark (3 runs under conditions that don`t suit the horse), in particular, when trained by Dunlop, Cumani and Stoute….although other trainers are equally adept at giving their horses the best chance. Do you ever use this information when making a selection and, if so, which trainers do you look out for in particular ?. <br>Since posting this question, Dunlop has scored with Puffin @ 11/4 and yesterday (18/4/01…) Charlton scored with Welcome Friend @ 10/1.
Often the handicappers build in an ‘improvement factor’ for a handicap debutant with difficult to grasp form, and as a general rule they are bad value. Everybody is too sensative to the. But, some of the Prescott / Dunlop horses – especially the stoutly bred ones who’ve ‘earned’ their mark Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â over shorter trips – are worth a second glance.I read that Welcome Friend was considered to be one of Charlton’s best three year olds last season.
When making a selection, do you select purely on the form of the horse, under the conditions it will race under on the day, or have you ever spotted one being "looked after" and made a point of punting it regardless of its next objective ?
You can often spot a horse being readied, but there might be five or six of them in a big race. You have to come down to form in the end.
I`ve often wondered if you actually get on a decent bet, at the odds you advise in the Post. Do bookmakers lay you at the price (to a decent bet) in return for what they see as your having detected a glitch in their pricing up of a race ?. In essence, are they letting you have the price and then limiting their liabilities to the general public by cutting it back to both credit and shop trade alike ?.
I’m not that big a punter, so can often get on what I want. But if it’s a rick, I’ve been knocked back to Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£20 and Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£25 like everybody else. The bookies don’t want me to point out a glitch after they’ve priced up a race, but before ! which obviously I donÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t do.
Do you realise the strength of following you have amongst the general public ?…..not to mention the fear you put up bookmakers. I`ve known shops that normally open at 10 a.m, open at 10-15 in order to "miss" the "15 minutes after opening" deadline.
Yes, although I’ve found that after a hot streak the strengh of following is greater. So, you should be able to get on tomorrows tips very easily !
Is their a single horse you have ever nominated more than once as your main selection and, if so, which was it ?
Stormy Skye is the one that comes to mind, but after his last effort, I think he’s off the list for a long time.
Thanks again for answering our questions. I look forward to reading your replies…..:shades:
<br>— Posted by ZZASS on 4:49 pm on April 17, 2001
Hi Melvyn Which n/h and flat race’s do you find that give out the best value to US punter’s as you seem to SPOT the value horse on both code’s Which do you like better flat or n/h One last question which race do you look forward to each year in "both" codes CHEER’s for your time
Jumps and flat come much the same to me. Give me a big field, a bad favourite and plenty of form patterns to spot and I’m happy. I think the better class races – handicaps and stakes races – (form works out, most horses trying their best) are the one’s to concentrate onZZASS :)
<br>— Posted by jez on 8:51 am on April 18, 2001
Hi Again Lasy May /June I cut out 112 pricewise boxes from the Racing Post to try and work out a system of sorts. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â From this sample of 112 races the winner came from the first four in the betting 70 times(62.5%). Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Favourite in the pricewise box from these 112 won 22(19.64%) including two of the most competitive h`caps of the year El Gran Papa(Brittania) and Caribbean Monarch(Hunt Cup). Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Also the first and second occurred 31 times(27.67%) from the first four in the pricewise grid. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Do you think there is anything going for this way of thinking to help cut the field down a bit or is it a waste of time. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Maybe the percentages would change over the year. Thanks again for your time
I think that ‘backfitting’ is a dangerous thing. Just look at the race yourself, and donÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t let the bookies dictate your betting.
<br>— Posted by SIR TRISTRAM on 12:41 pm on April 20,<br> <br>Hi Melvin, Just wanted to ask, if you didnt have to go by the rules for your particular section, like i.e. usually the only races priced early, and you had a choice of any race on any given day the same as the punter in the street, would it be wise to assume one of your views would be, that half the skill in picking horses, is actually in selecting the right race to play in? <br>Yes And also, as a writer your working to deadlines, do you schedule your study time for a race, and stick to it religiously Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â i.e.1 hour – to study form alone, 20 mins checking the races trends, 20 minutes checking and comparing prices from firms,20 minutes on draw & weather, 30 mins deciding how you think each horse will run its race, and Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 20 minutes deciding how the race will pan out, etc?
I’d like to be that organised, but screen breaks, cups of tea, and watching the racing on the t.v gets in the way. To be serious, yes I do attack races in a systematic way. And lastly, when i find the right race, i still dont feel totally confident unless ive gone through every horse in the fields form, even the 100/1 outsider.
I read in your r/p artical on "Improve your Profit", (i think it was named that), that if youve got say a 24 runner field, on a track like chester, you can within reason, discount half the field, but that makes it quite a sliding rule because how do you separate chester from leicester, being the formers is roughly twice the draw bias. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â The eg. being – 1]you discount half the field in the 24 runner race at chester(horses drawn 13-24). 2] DO YOU DO THE SAME THING, UNDER THE SAME CONDITIONS, AT LEICESTER IF THE WORTHY ROCK SOLID FAVOURITE IS DRAWN SAY 17 OR 18? (this Q. isnt for advice, just for your personal insight, cheers mate, hope i was clear enough on this last one).
I always look at all the runners. On the draw thing – which is worth another 2000 words on its own – the key is again value. If they started offering 500-1 about the horse drawm on the outside at Chester, I’d be interested. What I’m saying is that they only usually put, say, a genuine 16-1 shot on form out to 20/1 because of the draw. Its not enough – unless Fallon’s on and he drops it out the back, or they go too fast in front etc etc etc <br>
— Posted by Pewter on 1:03 pm on April 20, 2001<br> Mr Collier, Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â <br>On a percentage scale, what would your best estimate be for Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â the success of anyone wanting to make a living at Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â taking the bookies on ?
<br>— Posted by LUKE on 11:10 pm on April 20, 2001
Iwould like to ask if the big bookmakers offer their early prices on the really big races to certain individuals -connections etc. before the general public have a chance to get on.
There is a ‘gray’ market, yes, although I’m not sure you would get anyone to admit it.
<br>— Posted by SIR TRISTRAM on 1:02 am on April 22, 2001
Hi Melvin, journalism,travel,meetings etc. asidehow much time per average week would you actually study the races you give advice for? Cheers once again, ST.
About 7 hours a day
<br> — Posted by ALI on 3:29 pm on April 22, 2001
Hello Melvin, have you ever owned a racehorse and have you ever had any success through ownwership.
No<br><br>Do you have an active interest in any other sports for gambling purposes.
I’m a mug football punter, but know a few people who know what they are talking about.<br>April 25, 2001 at 00:29 #90295Jay TorbittMember
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Cheers to Mel Collier for agreeing to take part in this feature. Another big face in the racing industry here at The Racing Forum!
:armbounce:April 25, 2001 at 06:42 #90297MatronParticipant
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Thanks Mel for for such a comprehensive response to everybodys questions.
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:April 25, 2001 at 11:08 #90301Jim JTSMember
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:clap: Brilliant! I enjoyed reading that well done M C.
Nice to see you mentioned WELCOME FRIEND as I took a liking to this one last season but I didn’t know Mr Charlton rated this so highly.April 25, 2001 at 11:41 #90303ChrisMember
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Thanks for the excellent replies, Mel. Also many thanks to Daylight and everyone else who helped. I look forward to the next guest appearance!April 25, 2001 at 16:32 #90306CaraMember
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thanx very much!April 25, 2001 at 18:39 #90310ShaunMember
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Many thanks Melvyn for your superb answers to our questions.
Well done Daylight…….AGAIN
:clap: Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â :clap:
:bounce:April 25, 2001 at 20:11 #90312paul101Member
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well done to all involvedApril 25, 2001 at 23:00 #90313michaelMember
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Well done and many thanksApril 25, 2001 at 23:12 #90314ZozMember
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Thankin you, guys :buddy:
Really good stuff :armbounce:
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