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Surely this revolves entirely around Hazapour? I took 10-11 with bet365 this morning. I’d never normally be betting odds on, but how he is not a 1-2 shot here, I really do not know.
There’s a non runner since I placed my bet, and everything shortened (although no R4 showing). I still think he’s good value here at 8-11 personally in a four runner race. Deauville makes the market for him, but he’ll chew him up with ease I feel. Bigger and better things await for this horse over 1m2f. The fact Dettori wants to stay connected to the horse, speaks volumes too. G1 animal, running against a dodge pot and a couple of no hopers, in a weak looking G3…
I think he’ll absolutely breeze this over 1m1f, looking very impressive in the process. I’d love to be able to get a price right now, for the Irish Champion for him. No one has it priced up yet though.
Had a look at this race, Nausered.
On recent “form” Hazapoour seems a good bet @ 8/11, by far the most likely winner and if Deauville doesn’t return to form – yes – could easily breeze in. However, do have to wonder about pace in the race, especially with team O’Brien – Deauville and Curly – both the obvious front runners. If – and probably only “if” – O’Brien plays his cards wisely.Hazapour didn’t stay in the Derby partly because he didn’t fully settle. So with Donnacha and Lorden, why not go off together in front at a good pace for the first furlong or so and then slam the breaks on? Firstly, Hazapour might not settle if pace drastically slows – could go the same pace as Epsom… Secondly, Deauville would have positional advantage when the sprint for home comes. Thirdly, unlike the favourite, Deauville is proven fully effective at a mile (a lesser stamina test than this 1m1f) so possibly has more speed. Fourthly, Deauville was beaten less than 1 1/2 lengths by Ribchester in last year’s 1m Group 1 Queen Anne and beaten just a head in this race last year, trying to give 3 lbs to Moonlight Magic (who went down by just three lengths in the Irish Champion on his only subsequent start). So although Hazapour has the best recent form – and the most likely to show his best – there isn’t much between them if both at their bests.
That said, I think betting has taken all the above in to account.
I’ve decided not to get involved.Hope Hazapour wins for you.
Value Is EverythingThanks Ginge
He ran like a drain. I’m glad there was no prices for the Irish champion earlier now.
You got a far better price than SP, Nausered; just didn’t pay off this time.
Considering the seemingly exposed winner… Deauville still probably not at his best, resulting in the other prominent runner Turret Rocks getting the verdict. Curly did well to get so close, given inexperience and having to come from the back. Not convinced I was right about the reason/s for Hazapour’s defeat though. May be more than one thing contributing. Possibly partly pace of the race (held up) and partly lack of speed (dropping in trip) but suspect the main reason could be going. Dam a half sister to Harzand who appeared not to like this surface… and Hazapour’s previous form has been on a softer surface.
Value Is Everything
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