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and that’s why he’s never ever going to be Sports Personality of the Year. Nor should he be.
This discussion interests me because I have given up trying to fathom the horses of certain trainers from a betting point of view.
I no longer bet on horses from certain yards, including that of Jonjo O’Neill, because I usually got it wrong. The same applies to Peter Bowen’s operation, which I just can’t figure despite my having been in the game for 45 years.
For instance, look at Jonjo’s at Kempton today. It looked a tasty proposition, started at 4-1 (double the tissue) and won comfortably.
I stick to the trainers who are easier to read, like Nicky Henderson.
I also have the impression that Tony McCoy is not altogether comfortable in his job as stable retainer in the O’Neill set-up, but maybe I’m wrong.
It has always puzzled me why connections would race a horse when it is not fit to do itself justice, particularly the better class of animal. It was because of this that I asked a question in the Celebrity Q&A to Bill Pressey, Equine Exercise Physiologist.
I asked "Whilst aware that each individual horse is different, in your opinion on average how long does a horse need between races to operate at an optimum level."
Bill replied
I think that 3 weeks is too long for most, and 3 days is too short – the correct answer lies between. If you can collect and analyze physiological data such as heart rate, gallop speed, lactate balance point, etc. – you can eliminate the guesswork and pinpoint the best for your horse, i.e. tell when he is recovered from his last effort.
How difficult can it be to get a horse to operate at its optimum level say five times a season based on the above reply from Bill ? Why is it necessary to give a horse a run at a public racecourse to complete its fitness regime in anticipation of an improved run in its future races ? Why can’t this be done on the training ground at home, after all they are professional trainers of racehorses, they ought to be able to produce a horse fit to do its best. Why can’t a jockey exert the same amount of effort on every ride be it on a moderate selling hurdler or a top class hurdling prospect ? This isn’t just about the OP’s concern of this one occasion this is a characteristic of the sport which the more I think of it seems totally unsatisfacory to me. Watching thoroughbreds flying over obstacles at speed, completely in rhythm with their jockey, straining to be first past the post is a magnificent sight. Watching an unfit horse being tenderly handled and then listening to the connections explain "well he was only 85% fit and will come on greatly for the run" isn’t a magnificent sight, it’s unacceptable. I’ve been a fan of horse racing since I was five nearly forty years ago and I have had some wonderful days during that time. I have spent a considerable amount of time (and money
) during that period going racing, reading about it , compiling systems etc but I have to admit for the first time I am doubting whether or not I want to continue spending my time bothering with it, which is a shame.
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aaronizneez
, you raise a fascinating point: what constitutes "race-fit"? The vet’s answer applies to the physical aspect of a horse’s constitution, no argument; but it seemed to me at the time that it missed one crucial element out of the equation – i.e. what goes on in between the horse’s ears.
The difference between knowing how to bring a horse to a peak of physical fitness, and having the horse cherry-ripe in the head too, is the difference between the good trainer and the outstanding one.
I agree that this "85%" business is confusing, and I wish trainers (even great ones) would stop coming out with it. The more accurate ones say "I’ve got him as fit as I can do at home, now he needs the race". That makes it clearer that the extra 15% is all about getting the horse straight in its head about what it’s got to do.
If humans forget their skills, why shouldn’t horses? Race-fitness applies equally to
both
, and can’t be brought about solely in training, or on the gallops.
If finding that mental 15% were that easy, more trainers would do it. No trainer worth his salt is going to risk a horse who isn’t 100%
physically
fit on a racecourse, especially over jumps – the chance of injury is too great.
This 15% mental fitness is what makes so many good rides look bad to cynical punters. How easy it would have been for McCoy to sour that horse terminally, by bullying it into a race for which it wasn’t mentally geared up. That is the difference, I submit, between a good and a great jockey: knowing where and how to draw the line.
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Are you seriously suggesting that Get Me Out Of Here wasn’t in the right frame of mind to run, that he somehow needed to re-acquaint himself with racing?
The day that becomes a legitimate excuse I’ll give up completely; who the hell can question, or indeed prove, whether a horse was mentally prepared or not?
The theory holds for juveniles and inexperienced novices, but Get Me Out Of Here is a five-time winner who bagged the Tote Gold Trophy pulling a train and finished a closing second in one of the most gruelling races of the season.
Racing keenly I can understand – it was his first outing at true racing pace for 7 months – but I’m not buying that he was missing his ‘game face’.
Had a lesser jockey been on board for a less prominent owner, would you be similarly defensive of McCoy’s effort?
I thought Massini’s Maguire showed amazing mental strength and fitness to win first time out.
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The day that becomes a legitimate excuse I’ll give up completely;
The theory holds for juveniles and inexperienced novices, but Get Me Out Of Here is a five-time winner who bagged the Tote Gold Trophy pulling a train and finished a closing second in one of the most gruelling races of the season.Racing keenly I can understand
Had a lesser jockey been on board for a less prominent owner, would you be similarly defensive of McCoy’s effort?
"A wise punter will allow for the 15% between-the-ears factor at all times."
(Pinza,
It’s a Mug’s Game
, 2010)
but I have to admit for the first time I am doubting whether or not I want to continue spending my time bothering with it, which is a shame.
This is the first time in 40 yrs of studying horseracing Aaron that you question your devotion to the sport because of GMOOH"s performance at Ascot the other day?
What many punters fail to realise is that they are constantly frowned upon by racings Clique,Jockeys,owners and particularly trainers,Sir Michael Stoute stands out as one who looks at the public as though they are something he"s trodden in,they tolerate us but only because we are a necessity to racings survival! I would bet good money that Sir Michael who didn"t want to mislead the public about Workforces welfare was snaffling all the fancy prices for the Derby and Arc whilst telling us sweet FA! Remember he was 16/1 for both after dissapointing in his previous race but miraculously gets backed into 6/1 on both occassions whilst telling the public nothing! Thats just one example of racings clique keeping it in the family! Binocular! now there"s another story! Accept the fact that we are told nothing Aaron, you can only depend on what you percieve to be good form as far as making a judgement to bet is concerned and i would be pretty confident GMOOH will be a profitable horse to follow this season! Chin up soldier!Hypothetical question. But given the horse’s profile, ability and weight I suspect that
if it hadn’t been McCoy on board, the ride wouldn’t have been subjected to the scrutiny it’s received in this thread.
That’d almost be funny if it wasn’t so wide of the mark.
McCoy is no whipping boy in these parts.
I can only imagine far more scrutiny had it been McLernon or any other jockey on board. Strange that you should have that opinion.
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McCoy is no whipping boy in these parts.
There’s no jockey who isn’t
precisely
that in these parts!
Having started a couple of threads recently praising judicious rides, and having seen both slip into snide and/or cynical criticism within a couple of replies, I simply accept this as a tedious fact of TRF life. Neither of those threads concerned the "usual suspects" (Spencer, Hills, Hughes, Fallon…) either, so I take it to be a universal malaise.
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Another nonsense thread.
GMOOH/AP improved 4 out horse was racing to get there unlike some of the others.
4 horses up a head all going better than he is, AP is still riding all be it hands and heels, knows he’s got no chance and lets the horse come home in his own time.
He could have knocked 10 bells out of him and finished 5th but for what?
Any jockey who would have done any differently on a genuine horse like him wouldn’t be riding for 5 mins if he can’t tell when a horse is beaten.
Did Jonjo send him there needing a run Yup!!! Did he say win if you can but don’t give him a hard race? You can bet he did. Did he think he would win? probably not but if he could have with ease, in his condition he’d have been a very happy man.
If Jonjo and AP are to be accused of cheating then they better change the rule and quick, because as far as I can see they have done nothing wrong.
He could have knocked 10 bells out of him and finished 5th but for what?
How about just asking the horse for some effort for 100 yards to demonstrate why it couldn’t win?
The horse might as well have been PU with a 1m to run, because that would be ok as the jockey knew it wouldn’t win, job done.
) during that period going racing, reading about it , compiling systems etc but I have to admit for the first time I am doubting whether or not I want to continue spending my time bothering with it, which is a shame.
What many punters fail to realise is that they are constantly frowned upon by racings Clique,Jockeys,owners and particularly trainers,Sir Michael Stoute stands out as one who looks at the public as though they are something he"s trodden in,they tolerate us but only because we are a necessity to racings survival! I would bet good money that Sir Michael who didn"t want to mislead the public about Workforces welfare was snaffling all the fancy prices for the Derby and Arc whilst telling us sweet FA! Remember he was 16/1 for both after dissapointing in his previous race but miraculously gets backed into 6/1 on both occassions whilst telling the public nothing! Thats just one example of racings clique keeping it in the family! Binocular! now there"s another story! Accept the fact that we are told nothing Aaron, you can only depend on what you percieve to be good form as far as making a judgement to bet is concerned and i would be pretty confident GMOOH will be a profitable horse to follow this season! Chin up soldier!
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