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Even though Dee Ex Bee was well beaten today and that might put a lot of people off THREADING i really feel she deserves a look. Every horse is different after all.
for my money I wasn’t that visually impressed by Dee Ex Bee but I was by threading. 9-2 looks good and I know Steve is very keen on her.
Not convinced about the opposition. Happy like a fool will surely struggle to get home even if she runs, which now seems doubtful. Madeline was well held at Royal Ascot. I think Actress has the best form but is starting to look exposed. She is very solid though.
That leaves Special Purpose as possibly the main danger, however she’s been running mostly over five, and this will take some getting now they’ve got some rain in the ground.
THREADING looks a banker bet for me around the 9-2 mark.
not sure if i would say 3rd in a group 1 means your exposed in terms of actress,I think theobald franked the form getting so close to the pentagon for actress also from her group 3 win
Cant have the american horse probably will run even though conditions wouldnt be suitable
The johnston horse visually impressive, but similar dee ex bee i cant have due to how far forward they are first time out
Madeline is rated 4lbs inferior to actress and is the only one i feel who could improve to the level required
Actress brings in rock solid form and at 4/1 she is an absolute steal in my opinion rated 106 and arguably improving,if not madeline someones else going to need a big step up to win this
Everyone else isnt near the form she has shown
Will be going heavy on actress at 4/1
Difficult one. I completely agree on the sentiment put forward about Threading being much more visually impressive than stablemate Dee Ex Bee. Travelled strongly, scooted clear with no fuss and was eased down to win by 6 lengths.
Madeline and Actress are evenly matched and the first mentioned probably has more scope for improvement with the ground probably being more in her favour as well.
I won’t be going heavy on this but I cant see past those three above so will put them in a combi tricast and have singles on all 3.Tough race yes. I must admit I’m still undecided as to what to back, Don’t normally back O’Briens but actress is tempting me.
I always think if there’s only one horse you’re drawn to in a race those are the sort of races you should be focusing on, for example I was certain that Cracksman would win today, but got drawn into other races as well
You may see on the Acomb thread I have a theory why Mark Johnston isn’t as good at York, expected to be backing against Threading. But with all the field well below the average Lowther winner, am after something with scope to improve… and there are very few scopey sorts with the most obvious – Threading. Think it helps it’s on the straight course. Fact she’s proven on soft ground and been supplemented when they could’ve run Nyaleti are all positives and I was expecting 5/2, not 5/1.
Actress may be technically the form horse, but is far more exposed. I’ll be disappointed if something can’t improve past her. American horses usually need to be taken on on this ground, so am against the second favourite Happy Like A Fool (non runner on soft at Goodwood). Although don’t think it’s quite as soft as the official.
Do like Madeline‘s form, stable is in going well at the moment and I backed her last time; but she’s a bit below the standard of a Lowther winner and is tiny; lacking scope to improve much. Indeed, the filly that chased her home at Newbury – Hannon’s Natural – looks a better bet each way @ 14/1 and this ground suits her. Am surprised Oisin isn’t on her, but have taken the tip and saved on Special Purpose. Might not have been that good a race, but latter won with a good deal in hand last time out over 5f. Haggas is in great form and always does well at his beloved York, worth a saver.
If Mamba Noire can improve on the form of when she chased home Clemmie and Nyaleti in the Duchess Of Cambridge, might surprise a few. But disappointed for no apparent reason last time and not sure she’ll like this soft surface.
I’ve backed Threading 5/1 and Natural 14/1 ew, with saver on Special Purpose 6/1.
Value Is EverythingAfter Dee Ex Bee’s poor effort I am worried about Threading. She was more impressive than Dee Ex Bee but the ground was heavy. Even if it gets heavy here, we have just seen her stable mate run poorly when everything suggested he should come on from his first race.
On the plus side she may actually be suited by a bit better ground. She didn’t show a particularly soft ground gait in winning.
Most of the reason for selecting Threading was the lack of belief in anything else. This will already be Actress’ eighth start of the season and I don’t know if she will like the ground.
Madeline finished ahead of Actress in the Albany but her form looks Listed/Group 3 to me at best, she has had four goes now and I just wonder if she is as quick as some here.
Happy Like A Fool seems friendless at 5/1 and a combination of the extra furlong and softer ground concerns me. She didn’t look another Lady Aurelia in the making last time and I did mention that she didn’t have the same impressiveness or the quick time of Lady Aurelia when I suggested her as a bet for the Queen Mary. I have my doubts she can burn for six furlongs and would be tempted to place lay her at Evens for this.
Special Purpose is 2/2 but steps up in grade and distance. I have always taken a view that when two or more factors are changing, then looking at a lay bet can be in order. There is the chance the trip could find her out and she is 15 behind Actress on Racing Post ratings. Her Beverley win still leaves her behind Threading, who earned a mark of 96 for her debut, a very strong first effort indeed. In addition, trainer William Haggas has had it pretty lean at the top for a fair while now. He went winner-less through Royal Ascot and seems more like a two day old sandwich at the big festivals, in that he merely turns up at the edges.
I thought Threading had the potential to get ground that she could handle and that may hinder others. It’s not a strong selection by any means, there is always doubt with only one run to go on. She went off 12/1 last time and was largely unheralded. She demolished the field that day and despite the Mark Johnston factor, I felt compelled to select her.
There are various theories on the in and out nature of the Johnston form from one big festival to another but I have given up trying to suss it out. Even the wet seaweed curled up in befuddlement and the Gypsy Lady took a claw hammer to her Crystal Ball. Maybe Threading will go out there and run like a box of smashed crabs, maybe she will storm home and go favourite for the 1000 Guineas.
A tricky one. Good luck to all.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Are you not concerned by the fact that Happy Like a fool was hardly running on over five and now she’s got to go over six on softer ground?
Are you not concerned by the fact that Happy Like a fool was hardly running on over five and now she’s got to go over six on softer ground?
Id be concerned about that
I think ACTRESS is the solid one to bet at the prices and Special Purpose could be the fly in the ointment.
The ground is definitely drying out though which might help the American horse get home but not for me that one.
Madeline looked a little unlucky draw wise at Ascot.
Natural should not beat Madeline.
Threading is Johnston’s which puts me off somewhat.
And the others don’t look good enough.
So that narrows it down to three SP Mad and Actress and I have plumped for Actress.Good Luck Guys
Happy Like A Fool is very weak. Out to 13/2 after being 4/1 initially.
Not a lot of confidence behind anything here so far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Have changed my mind and backed Actress. Probably regret it but on reviewing threading’s maiden race I don’t think she beat much.
As I said before I rarely back O’Brien’s but Actress just seems so solid and she’s bound to be there or thereabouts.
Looking at the Queen Mary Happy like a fool shows the usual Wesley Ward trailblazing speed for the first furlongs but then the winner fights her off and she almost gets swallowed up by the field in last part of the race, in other words she was fading at the end and that would concern me, having to go another furlong on rain softened ground.
Actress has been busy all right – the most experienced horse in this field – but she’s progressed with every run and until that progression comes to an end she’s worth following. A Group 3 winner who faced the colts last time in a G1 and was beaten 2L, she has the best jock (imo), and best trainer and seems pretty good value at 4/1. Surprised to see the Timeform team don’t think she’ll even be placed.
Good luck all.
The issue with Actress is the ground. Raced once on good to yielding and was beaten 5 lengths. Finished just behind Madeline at royal ascot aswell on good to firm and Madeline I believe will be suited best to a bit of give.
AOB has stated that the better the ground the better her chance. Not one I’d be against though so have put a free bet on her as a saver with Madeline and Threading my main selections. Bloody haggas filly will hack up now
Not a whole lot of love for Madeline here but I thought I’d keep it simple and back her at 3/1. She’s proven with a bit of give and holds the British runners on form I think although Threading is the jack in the box. Surely we know where we are with Actress whereas Madeline looks an improving filly. I’ve had a saver on Threading (sneaky I know).
ABSOLUTELY PATHETIC.
Will never over analyse a race ever again
Absolutely disgusted here. Won’t be backing O’Briens ever again- can never figure them out.
Well done threading backers
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