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Long Walk Hurdle

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  • #6010
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Any thoughts on this race?

    I’ve backed BJK at 4.8. I think that price will shorten dramatically if racing goes ahead as the ground should be ideal.

    Hardy Eustace is interesting at this trip but I wouldn’t touch him with stolen money at his price, I’m quite surprised he is favourite to be honest.

    Special Envoy is improving, but again I think the odds are too cramped.

    Chief Dan George should come on a bundle for his last effort but the ground will probably be against him, the same might apply to Oscar Park. Even Kasbah Bliss would prefer much softer conditions.

    To me the race looks like a match between HE and BJK. If I can get anywhere near 1.7 or 1.75 for a place for BJK I will be having a hefty bet, not something I usually do at this time of the year. I’m very confident he can win and have already baced him, but it’s impossible to see him finishing out of the frame.

    Mike

    #131312
    Black Sam Bellamy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 442

    It’s funny Mike…I read things different to you when it comes to BJK. Can’t entertain him. He’s been found out at the very top level over three miles and I think he’s over-hyped. I am firmly in the Hardy Eustace camp.

    #131315
    underscore
    Member
    • Total Posts 537

    BJK is running over the wrong distance. But they seem to be determined to make him a 3mile horse when there is a better option for him in the Champ Hurdle….

    #131320
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    It’s funny Mike…I read things different to you when it comes to BJK. Can’t entertain him. He’s been found out at the very top level over three miles and I think he’s over-hyped. I am firmly in the Hardy Eustace camp.

    It’s all about opinions BSB, that’s what makes the game so exciting.

    It’s been a while since BJK had ground like this however. As you say, he has been found out at the top level – but is this race top level?

    I really don’t think the staying hurdlers are that great (Inglis Drever apart) and I can see BJK cruising along as he usually does. I’m hoping he can put the race to bed between the last two before he empties. I’m sure Hardy will be coming at him and for me he is the only danger, hence why I can’t see BJK finishing out of the frame.

    Mike

    #131322
    AndyRAC
    Participant
    • Total Posts 369

    Can’t understand why Wichita Lineman or Refinement aren’t running, I haven’t heard the reasons, so forgive me if they’ve been stated. Sorry, but can’t have BJK to win, though I’ll be glad to be proved wrong. I would like to see him over 2-2m4f.

    #131323
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    Sorry but he’s 100% a 3 mile horse and the CH entry was only made in case everything decent drops out for one reason or another and the race can be stolen.

    You could do much worse than back him just now. He will take some beating this March if all is well, but personally I would have waited until around end February before committing myself. There is no great rush to get on and his price won’t be dropping too much IMO

    I wouldn’t discard Hardy Eustace so easily he has won 2 CH’s. He is a real tough horse who loves the course, but if BJ gets there fit and well, he will need to be mega tough to stop him winning.

    BTW The horse was over the top when he ran in those races and is much better than that Sam.

    #131324
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Over the top in what races FoF?

    #131329
    underscore
    Member
    • Total Posts 537

    and it what way is he 100% a 3 mile horse? He’s been found out too many times at the top level. Let him cruise in a 2m and see what happens..

    #131341
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    I’m struggling to see why HE is so short. Granted some of the real big players in staying hurdling have stayed away (Inglis Drever, Wichita Lineman, Refinement), but he’s got practically no encouraging form beyond 2m4, the exception being his RSA Hurdle win 4 years ago over 2m5. I’m not saying he won’t stay, but for me there’s too much of a question mark to make 3.4 (IIRC) much in the way of value.

    BJK doesn’t find enough at this level to win. He’s a frustrating one, because I was in the camp that thought a couple of years ago he had whatever race he fancied at his mercy. Personally I wouldn’t fancy him much over 2m either, although the way this year’s CH is shaping up place money would be a possibility due to his class alone.

    I like Special Envoy. He was the only one to finish in the same county as Inglis Drever at Newbury, admittedly in receipt of 8lbs, a luxury he won’t have on Saturday. Although he’s improved so much on his first two runs since he’s been stepped up in trip I think he’s an interesting one should he improve again, especially with question marks surrounding the market leaders.

    #131342
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3214

    Over the top!

    He’s an 8-y-old that’s had a grand total of twelve races in a career lasting three and a half years.

    When he was beaten at Cheltenham at the end of January, it was only his second race of the season.

    If he was over the top on that program, he’s shouldn’t be running in the Long Walk, he should be queueing at Heathrow for a flight to the sun so he can laze on a beach until the Festival.

    AP

    #131356
    Black Sam Bellamy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 442

    Hardy Eustace has a good record at Ascot and the ground should be fine. I actually think 5/2 is a good price if you think he will stay. I don’t think he expends too much energy with his smooth hurdling style and if he gets a nice lead off Lough Derg and travels OK, I think the class should tell.

    His defeat of Afsoun over 2m 3f at Ascot is good form to me as I think Afsoun is more effective at that sort of distance than he is over a bare 2 miles and Hardy Eustace was entitled to improve for the run (maybe Afsoun wasn’t fully tuned-up either). Hardy is hopefully over the problems that derailed him over the last few years.

    I have stated my opinion on Black Jack Ketchum. The rest of the field look limited to me, with the possible exception of Special Envoy..but his best form looks to be on a soft surface. Each way value perhaps.

    #131362
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    BJK is running over the wrong distance. But they seem to be determined to make him a 3mile horse when there is a better option for him in the Champ Hurdle….

    My thoughts exactly.

    I’m hoping he gets left behind on the run in then maybe, just maybe sense may prevail.

    #131371
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I quite liked the look of this race when I looked at it as for me there has to be a significant doubt about Hardy staying 3m (Well, Nick Mordin thinks so anyway :D )
    I was swaying towards backing BJK but the stable’s form is a major concern. I still might if they show some signs of a revival.

    #131392
    NWRA
    Member
    • Total Posts 259

    I have two questions regarding Hardy Eustace, and would be grateful for any help or insight.

    The first is: has any former Champion Hurdle winner ever, once they’ve got a little too old and lost some speed, been successfully reinvented as a staying hurlder (and been competitive at the highest level?).

    I think Hardy still has a bit of class and he certainly looks like he’ll stay 3m… but I really can’t imagine seeing him leading the betting, at 11yo, for the World Hurdle at Chelentham in March. I would usually lay a horse with his profile without question, and I will do so on Saturday unless someone can name me a horse who has made the swtich…

    This is more a general question; when a frontrunning (or usually prominent) horse like Hardy is going up in trip, do you prefer it if the horse is ridden the same as always (up there with the pace, despite the worries about stamina) or if the horse is held-up to definitely get the trip?

    #131393
    NWRA
    Member
    • Total Posts 259

    I quite liked the look of this race when I looked at it as for me there has to be a significant doubt about Hardy staying 3m (Well, Nick Mordin thinks so anyway :D )
    I was swaying towards backing BJK but the stable’s form is a major concern. I still might if they show some signs of a revival.

    Hi, where has Nick Mordin said that he doesn’t think Hardy will stay 3m? I’d like to read the article if its online somewhere.

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