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Strong entry here……
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2020-12-19/771815
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/long-walk-hurdle/winner
The likes of Thyme Hill and Paisley Park obviously speak for themselves, but I thought the 14’s for Main Fact was too big.
He’s on some roll, and I could probably beat 14’s in running, but he has the look of a very underrated horse, and until the winning run comes to an end, I’m happy to stick with him for now.
At the bottom end of the market is Lil Rockerfella. I thought he was excellent last week, giving loads of weight away, and he looked back to something like his best. If he is back to his best, then at 25’s, he looks a fair EW bet for a horse who was narrowly defeated in The Stayers two seasons back. I haven’t bet him yet, as if this doesn’t cut up, then I can see there being four places on the day, and there’s a good chance his price will hold. I’ll watch how it goes.
Lil Rockerfella 25’s
Main Fact 14’sPaisley Park is a wonderful horse, but I think that Thyhme Hill will uphold the form here. 2-1 is too short though.
I’ve looked for an outsider, in the very real chance that a few of these won’t run. I’ve landed on Third Wind, who I think could sneak a place here. 40-1 ew
I can’t remember Elliot entering many in this before. I wonder if any of them are being seriously considered. I would love it if he did, it would make for a very interesting clash.
I couldn’t oppose the front two otherwise for win purposes.
I could have a bet here though. I thought The Jam Man underperformed at Haydock, and I would definitely consider him at around 25/1, while Indefatigable could be a big ew shout at 50/1 with the allowance.
A few taken out today, but still shaping up into some race.
I’ll stick with Main Fact as the sole Antepost just now, but if the field holds up, should be four places after Final Decs, and I’ll add either Lil Rockerfella or The Jam Man.
I like Thyme Hill but I would not be surprised to see Paisley Park reverse the form. I think connections were understandably a little cautious last time. Now they know he has taken the race OK, I just wonder if they might force the issue a bit more this time.
Youd have to think thyme hill will improve as much if not more for the run though
Hes a 6yo and still unexposed after all
If sire du berlais turns up too there will likely be quite a short priced fav for the stayers after Saturday if one of them wins well
I’m torn between sitting this out and betting an outsider. I can’t split Paisley Park and Thyme Hill. I’ve really warmed to Thyme Hill, and I’m going to bet him for The Stayers today.
For this race though, I’m going with an outsider at around 25-1 ew, The Jam Man.
Yeah, still like The Jam Man myself mate, and with Lil Rockerfella not declared was going to have a small go myself, but at the moment sticking with the one.
It’ll probably come down to someone offering four places.
One of my favourite races and meetings of the year. When I was down south I worked right next to Wokingham station so, Friday before Christmas as this race was then, it was work until 12 noon then quick train ride to Ascot and on the course for first race. Remember particularly peering through the gloom to watch Deano’s Beeno see off Barracuda on one of his seriously going days. Watch the replay and one of those shadows in the fog against the rail after the last is me!
Can’t look beyond Paisley Park and Thyme Hill for the winner. For one to pop into a place at a fancy price I go for THIRD WIND who has something to find but form is on an upward curve and will be suited by testing conditions. Might have a dig if there’s a 4 place market on Betfair.
I was also at Ascot on that foggy day when Deenos Beeno saw off Baracuda. The last two races were run in fog that was so thick it was worse than when Min won the John Durkan last week.
He’s had his problems and has been relatively lightly raced, but I think
it’s worth chancing Portrush Ted E/W in this at 40/1.
He’ll get the ground he needs today and he looked sound when winning
last time out at Sandown despite meeting the last all wrong and losing
a couple of lengths which he made up on the run in. Every chance of a
place here.Portrush Ted 40/1 E/W
I went with the 40-1 ew with Portrush Ted as well, I really like his attitude last time, but I’ve had a few pounds on Thyme Hill as well, as short as he is, I cannot see him getting beat.
I think Main Fact is far too big, and is carrying my each way bet.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
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