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Long Walk 2020

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  • #1512946
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    Strong entry here……

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2020-12-19/771815

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/long-walk-hurdle/winner

    The likes of Thyme Hill and Paisley Park obviously speak for themselves, but I thought the 14’s for Main Fact was too big.

    He’s on some roll, and I could probably beat 14’s in running, but he has the look of a very underrated horse, and until the winning run comes to an end, I’m happy to stick with him for now.

    At the bottom end of the market is Lil Rockerfella. I thought he was excellent last week, giving loads of weight away, and he looked back to something like his best. If he is back to his best, then at 25’s, he looks a fair EW bet for a horse who was narrowly defeated in The Stayers two seasons back. I haven’t bet him yet, as if this doesn’t cut up, then I can see there being four places on the day, and there’s a good chance his price will hold. I’ll watch how it goes.

    Lil Rockerfella 25’s
    Main Fact 14’s

    #1513409
    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 574

    Paisley Park is a wonderful horse, but I think that Thyhme Hill will uphold the form here. 2-1 is too short though.

    I’ve looked for an outsider, in the very real chance that a few of these won’t run. I’ve landed on Third Wind, who I think could sneak a place here. 40-1 ew

    #1514134
    Autumnal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 341

    I can’t remember Elliot entering many in this before. I wonder if any of them are being seriously considered. I would love it if he did, it would make for a very interesting clash.

    I couldn’t oppose the front two otherwise for win purposes.

    I could have a bet here though. I thought The Jam Man underperformed at Haydock, and I would definitely consider him at around 25/1, while Indefatigable could be a big ew shout at 50/1 with the allowance.

    #1514200
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    A few taken out today, but still shaping up into some race.

    I’ll stick with Main Fact as the sole Antepost just now, but if the field holds up, should be four places after Final Decs, and I’ll add either Lil Rockerfella or The Jam Man.

    #1514209
    Cork All Star
    Participant
    • Total Posts 675

    I like Thyme Hill but I would not be surprised to see Paisley Park reverse the form. I think connections were understandably a little cautious last time. Now they know he has taken the race OK, I just wonder if they might force the issue a bit more this time.

    #1514236
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2558

    Youd have to think thyme hill will improve as much if not more for the run though

    Hes a 6yo and still unexposed after all

    If sire du berlais turns up too there will likely be quite a short priced fav for the stayers after Saturday if one of them wins well

    #1514421
    Lemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 481

    I’m torn between sitting this out and betting an outsider. I can’t split Paisley Park and Thyme Hill. I’ve really warmed to Thyme Hill, and I’m going to bet him for The Stayers today.

    For this race though, I’m going with an outsider at around 25-1 ew, The Jam Man.

    #1514428
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    Yeah, still like The Jam Man myself mate, and with Lil Rockerfella not declared was going to have a small go myself, but at the moment sticking with the one.

    It’ll probably come down to someone offering four places.

    #1514454
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4831

    One of my favourite races and meetings of the year. When I was down south I worked right next to Wokingham station so, Friday before Christmas as this race was then, it was work until 12 noon then quick train ride to Ascot and on the course for first race. Remember particularly peering through the gloom to watch Deano’s Beeno see off Barracuda on one of his seriously going days. Watch the replay and one of those shadows in the fog against the rail after the last is me!

    Can’t look beyond Paisley Park and Thyme Hill for the winner. For one to pop into a place at a fancy price I go for THIRD WIND who has something to find but form is on an upward curve and will be suited by testing conditions. Might have a dig if there’s a 4 place market on Betfair.

    #1514456
    Cork All Star
    Participant
    • Total Posts 675

    I was also at Ascot on that foggy day when Deenos Beeno saw off Baracuda. The last two races were run in fog that was so thick it was worse than when Min won the John Durkan last week.

    #1514552
    waroftheroses
    Participant
    • Total Posts 36

    Thyme Hill for the win, and I’m going with The Jam Man 28-1 ew

    #1514596
    Kendicate
    Participant
    • Total Posts 74

    Jam man non runner by the looks

    #1514629
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7878

    He’s had his problems and has been relatively lightly raced, but I think
    it’s worth chancing Portrush Ted E/W in this at 40/1.
    He’ll get the ground he needs today and he looked sound when winning
    last time out at Sandown despite meeting the last all wrong and losing
    a couple of lengths which he made up on the run in. Every chance of a
    place here.

    Portrush Ted 40/1 E/W

    #1514645
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2551

    Will sit this one out.

    #1514650
    All Jeff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 275

    I went with the 40-1 ew with Portrush Ted as well, I really like his attitude last time, but I’ve had a few pounds on Thyme Hill as well, as short as he is, I cannot see him getting beat.

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