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One thing I will say is that the horse is entered Friday. He was entered last weekend at Chepstow and Sandown and failed to take his place. I’m hoping this will be the one
Its taken me all afternoon, but I know the answer….
Can I spill the beans Boz??
By all means……….
It’s Padge of course
No flies on you sir
Now we cross our fingers he’s amongst the final decs. This would make a handy Christmas bonus 
Why good morning pagans. I do hope everyone’s well at this festive time. It’s time for ‘Boz’s corner’, a wee jackanory in an attempt to provide a winter warmer to yee all……..
A little while ago yours truly was on his annual visit to ‘Headache Park’ for glitz and the glamour that is Betfair Chase day. A fun day was had by all and, although the winners didn’t roll in as I’d have wished, a potentially lucrative piece of information was passed my way.
I shan’t name names as, well that would take the fun out of my game
I was however on my travels when I happened to bump into a highly respected trainer watching one of his string take their place in a race down at Ascot. Not wishing to be rude I waited until his race was over before engaging in conversation. I was delighted to find he was friendly, forthcoming and more than happy to talk about certain members of his team that I quizzed him on; a stand up bloke really!Now here’s where it gets interesting. As I said this ‘mystery trainer’ was very open and honest in what he told me, no straight bats were played. So when I asked him about a relative newcomer to the yard I’d waited most of last season for, a horse who’s point form had seen him beat a subsequent Cheltenham festival winner, his response definitely made me take note. "He’ll win next time out, definitely," was the confident, steely eyed reply I was given. Time to save some pennies for an almighty Christmas coup……
The horse in question’s half length second in a maiden hurdle has gone from looking decent to top notch form as the third has gone on to win a class 2. The icing on the cake is the winner who went from winning upped in class to finishing a nostril second in a graded race. Maiden form well and truly franked.
Now then boys, betting boots at the ready! To quote a famous Australian paedophile, ‘Can you tell what it is yet………?’
Well as hoped my boy
Padge
takes his place in the last at Cheltenham tomorrow. The initial forecast prices, although often wide of their eventual mark, have my lad all the way out at 6/1. The horse I consider his main rival,
Miles To Memphis
, is as big as 5/1 although there’s no way on this earth he’ll go off that big. The King horse’s participation leaves me in a quandary having backed him for the festival. These are the best two animals in the race without a shadow of a doubt. As for tomorrow, it’s all about
Padge
Gord, this one’s for you…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO23WBji_Z0Right it’s time for the gloves to come off! If TAPK can do it I may as well give it a whirl, although whether I’ll quite last the pace of 27 races is another matter
We’ll duel to the death Gordy, starting in the obvious place, the Supreme…….As has become the status quo for most festival betting heats, favouritism is firmly held by an inmate of Closutton. Barring any mishaps between now and March, Willie Mullins is likely to house at least four of the favourites on day one alone. It’ll be exciting French import Douvan’s job to get the ball rolling.
It’s not difficult to see why he’s as short as he is (bottle in most places). With top connections and two bloodless wins without coming off the bit to date, he certainly has his fair share of appeal. His debut victory for team Willie was paid a huge compliment when the horse behind him that day (Sizing John) went and scored in a grade one next time out. But was it that much of a compliment? With hindsight, the only two horses of any real ‘grade one substance’ failed to complete that day. It’s a piece of form that’s often referred to with the horse but to which I’m highly sceptical. Douvan’s next run saw him canter past a plodder in what realistically turned out to be a bit of an egg and spoon race for a grade two.
I’m sure we’ll learn more about this horse if he lines up against better opposition in the Deloitte on Sunday week. I’m guessing you may be sensing my tone for now though and he’s just not floating my boat. It all looks more style over substance. For a horse without either the benefit of a run on good ground or the hustle and bustle of a big field (the most opposition he’s taken on to date is seven) I just can’t peg him down as a Supreme winner. We’ll start the week by taking on the fav!
One that I’ve backed myself at 14s and 12s is L’ami Serge. It seems remarkable to think now that this French import arrived at Seven Barrows a six-race maiden. His form over the winter though has blown that tag clean off however, quickening away from small but sound fields on no less than three occasions. An argument is there to be made that all his form is on soft ground, although being by King’s Theatre you would expect him to improve significantly for a better surface.
Coming over as a maiden could have been a blessing in disguise, with experience in big field events to boot. The fact he failed to win in France could call many to crab his form, although to me it appears clear that he’s simply blossomed in the hands of Nicky Henderson. His jumping is at times sketchy which is less than ideal in a Supreme. I’m happy with my double figure-prices, although whether I’d advise him at around the 9/2 mark is a different matter. I won’t be putting anyone off though that’s for sure.
The previous year’s bumper winner is always to the fore in most Supreme ante-post markets, although it’s last year’s second Shaneshill that appears to hold more significance this time around. He’s currently available at around the 16/1 mark, although were he to turn up he’d be half that on the day. As it is the Neptune appears his most likely port of call, but it’s a fellow Wylie-owned star that’s caught my eye at a massive 50/1. The form of
Vago Collonges
this season has been nothing to set the pulse racing. Indeed it took him a couple of goes to get off the mark following a lengthly layoff since his promising bumper days. It was last time out at Cheltenham where he really caught the eye however, travelling like an absolute dream before clearly not seeing out the stiff 2 mile 4 ½ furlong the new course had to offer. Had the race been half a mile shorter, Sam Twiston-Davies would’ve been giving Alice Plunkett the post-race debrief before anything else had crossed the line.
He’s clearly going back to the festival on an upward curve, as it would have taken a couple of spins to dust off the cobwebs. He’s shown that he handles the course and the drop in trip will surely be a blessing to a horse with plenty of speed. For a horse representing top connections, with masses of ability and at the current price, this looks an each-way bet from the stars.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Vago Collonges 50/1 e/w
Salute to you boz. Goood to see you back. I hope you get some winners a real punter like you deserves.
Cheers Wolf, good to you back on here matey
Where are your Cheltenham loyalties lying this year then bawheed? @ bawheed. My bets are crumbling fella. In a book of forlorn hopes, i suppose gilgamboa any race would raise a smile. Ante post is all about timing, and in my case funds. I had to go in early because im no money saver. I will cheer you and all the lays and plays folks on. Good luck.Good to see ‘Goldie and Boz’ contributing again.This Ante-Post lark gets harder year by year now there’s 4 days at Cheltenham but if you think like the Trainer you can cut through the haze.If there’s one horse who really is a Cheltenham sort its
Vatour
but even now you couldn’t back him Ante-Post because Willie wont tell us which race he’s going for.Imo he is a proper Arkle horse better than ‘Un Des sceaux’.I’m convinced Willie will let
Alvisio Ville
take on the hotpot ‘Douvan’ but again anyone who’s taken Ante-Post prices about any of the Willie Mulins horses wfor any race will have sleepless nights.I still think
Annie Power
should take the World hurdle route instead of the easy route,Rich Ricci might just have the last say.16/1 about what is really a 4/1 shot is value if she even gets there of course.
The chances of Vautour running in the Arkle, bar a mishap with Un De Sceaux, are minute. Same goes for Annie Power in the World Hurdle. Ricci leaves it up to Mullins.
Thanks guys, feels good to be home
All the best with your selections Wolf. Couldn’t be more true when you say it’s all about the timing – you watchVago Collonges’
odds tumble in the run-up. The Dovecote’s the next stop and once he canters round Kempton you’ll be lucky to see 10s
Gord you’ve hit the nail on the head with
Vautour
. To me he’s a 2 miler that stays, not a stayer, which the JLT often requires. Unfortunately for backers though
Un De Sceaux
is an absolute beast, one I underrated big time before his Irish Arkle romp and one Willie won’t be pitching against another of his gems. The only thing beating him would be himself, but he settled much better at Leopardstown. He looks home and hosed to me.
Talking of Cheltenham horses I’m taking your
Dodging Bullets
on in the Champion Chase. I’m bucking the trend, casting aside the order and checking that one out next
Tommy mate, I really can’t speak highly enough of you on here mate. Keep doing what you’re doing and never change. Your knowledge is golden and writing impeccable. All the best next month
Thanks Boz, best thing I ever did was knock the p/l thread on the head, prefer to just chip in with the odd comment on big races these days
Actually, that’s the second best thing I ever did. The best was making the decision to record every bet I make and other details such as ground, SP, race type etc. in an Excel file. Started this in December 2013 and can’t believe I hadn’t been doing it before. My threads on here were my only records before then and I suppose nowadays I don’t feel the need to keep a record on here anymore.
Are you going to Cheltenham this year?
I can’t wait for it, but first things first and that’s Hennessy day at Leopardstown on Sunday. The Hennessy itself is a good race but probably the least interesting of the four Grade 1’s, with the potential clashes of Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido, Alvisio Ville and Identity Thief, and Vercingetorix and Kalkir. Think Identity Thief is a live one for the Supreme or Neptune, most likely the former given the amount of staying novice hurdlers Gigginstown have.
Now we cross our fingers he’s amongst the final decs. This would make a handy Christmas bonus 
I was however on my travels when I happened to bump into a highly respected trainer watching one of his string take their place in a race down at Ascot. Not wishing to be rude I waited until his race was over before engaging in conversation. I was delighted to find he was friendly, forthcoming and more than happy to talk about certain members of his team that I quizzed him on; a stand up bloke really!
We’ll duel to the death Gordy, starting in the obvious place, the Supreme…….
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