The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Lessons I want to bear in mind

Home Forums Tipping and Research Trends, Research And Notebooks Lessons I want to bear in mind

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 31 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1161
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    Here are some lessons I want to bear in mind for future Cheltenhams, assuming I’m still extant:

    I’ll adopt a more conservative approach. I’ve exercised too much of a scatter-gun approach and was lucky to get away with most of it. Betting should be neater and more pedantic. My approach has been as untidy and rambling as the top of my desk here, with paper and books all over the place.  And oddly enough, keeping a record of the bets has only heightened my awareness of it. But greater ignorance would not be greater bliss.

    1) I want to concentrate on outstanding AP bets on horses that are likely to shortly end up favourites. I did that, and got relatively good prices with some of them, but missed others in non-handicaps, because I had bet on long shots, a-p.  

    In retrospect, there was really no excuse for not betting on  the "proven top quality", in the top races, in the form of Katchit, My Way de Solzen, Inglis Drever, and arguably, Cork Allstar.

    I had no trouble in discarding Voy Por Ustedes for the irrational reason that I take a scunner to certain horses, or rather their form, and he was one of them.

    Certain long-shots stood out, at least in some regards, and I should have put the same amount e.w., instead of just weighting the win bet, aiming at just getting my win stake back with the place stake. A 33/1 place is as good, after all, as a 5/1+ winner.

    I did do it one case and was chuffed to bits, as I’d forgotten it sounded as if it was placed. But on another 33/1 shot and 20/1, I just put on a fraction of the  win stake.

    Another boon was finding just one or two horses to bet on at the small meetings each day, although I squandered the profit from the winner today.

    So, I hope to do the same, that is, bet on what look the best bets on the cards at the small meetings during the week, though of course, it’s unlikely to always pay dividends. With a bit of luck (a lot actually) maybe I’ll manage to persevere with that conservative approach during the rest of the year… That would be something.

    I know I’m disappointed that I didn’t do well, and am not even sure if I won or lost – not being in the mood to risk finding the latter. I got a good bit back, alright, but over the weeks and months I’d put a good bit on.

    So, all in all, I feel the bookies have once again kicked butt and taken names, and mine’s in their ledgers somewhere.

    Anyway, there’s always tomorrow!

    (Edited by Grimes at 12:53 am on Mar. 17, 2007)

    #47140
    FlatSeasonLover
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2067

    Jes I’ve got a reputation as a tight student to live up to here but I would say my betting was something along these lines

    AP Betting £300<br>Returns £1000

    Day Of Race Betting £1000<br>Returns £500

    Okay so I come out of it with a profit but these statistics are absolutely startling. It tells me my antepost bets are great generally, but what it also says is that much of the value has gone on the day and I am piling into favourites or longshots that I shouldn’t be piling into. A more conservative approach needed on my part too.

    (Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 1:04 am on Mar. 17, 2007)

    #47142
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    Exactly. Oddly enough I was just wondering whether all the bets I put on at Cheltenham each day, and even all but one or two, the night before, lost and sapped away too much of my ante-post gains.

    #47143
    Boye
    Member
    • Total Posts 19

    I know it’s tempting to analyse and think you’ve come up with an answer to the age-old puzzle about how to turn a profit, but isn’t it just swings and roundabouts in the end.

    I had what appeared cracking ante-post bets (Aran Concerto at 25-1 for instance) but made a massive loss, but got out of it with on-the-day bets on proven performers.

    I think it’s a question of being absolutely rigorous with what you’re prepared to back, but having no fear when you’re convinced you’re right.

    I totally agree with the each-way thing; I too give far too little credence to the place part of a bet, and just try to cover my win stake.

    <br>

    #47145
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    I suspect Barry Dennis may have the edge on all of us, with 3 comfortable winners, from just 4 selections, over the whole meeting.:biggrin:

    #47147
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5142

    Quote: from Grimes on 12:53 am on Mar. 17, 2007[br]<br>bet on what look the best bets on the cards at the small meetings during the week, though of course, it’s unlikely to always pay dividends. With a bit of luck (a lot actually) maybe I’ll manage to persevere with that conservative approach during the rest of the year… That would be something.<br>

    Although Cheltenham is a feast at the highest table for the eyes and soul, betting wise I approach it no differently to run-of-the-mill daily fare and pay equal attention to the away meetings. Seven bets over the four days, two of which were at the Festival (both losers).

    The futility of a barrage of scattergun bets, wish for continuous ‘action’ and inane pressing up of and/or wildly fluctuating stakes were valuable lessons taught at the school of hard knocks but fortunately, learnt, absorbed and ingrained when still a callow youth.

    #47148
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Interesting thread. As I was abroad this year, this is the first festival since 1994 (also abroad) that I have not punted seriously on. Some general points I would make are:<br>I think it is important to have an overall strategy for the festival: mine involves close study of the trends in the races from previous years- not as big an edge as it used to be but still vital.<br>At least 60% of my punting is done ante post, with 80%<br>of that done in the period after non-runner no bet, which I regard as an absolute gift. This is profitable year on year.<br>On the day betting tends to involve a few bets at morning prices, quite a few Tote win and place bets on outsiders and some on Betfair. I have no problem backing 3 or 4 horses in a race in which I feel I have an edge- I tend to decide how much I want  to spend on the race based on my historical success in it and my feeling for the race that year and split the bets between what I feel are the value prices- I will happily have as much on a 25/1 shot as a 4/1 poke.<br>I almost never back a horse at the Festival at less than 3/1: the statistics for short prices here are awful.<br>I sit down the days after the festival and look at every winner- what age it was, how many runs it had before the Festival, previous course form etc to see if any new angles are appearing.<br>As  I said I wasn´t heavily involved this year but just glancing at the results made me think that previous Festival winners had been sent off at generous prices this year(My Way de S, Voy Por Ustedes, Inglis D, Idole First) <br>On the general point of each way betting, I think it´s important to treat the win and place bets as separate entities and subject them to the same scrutiny as regards value. My own feeling is that place betting in the handicaps especially seldom offers the same degree of value as win betting and I tend to restrict place bets to saving the win stake if I bet for a place at all.<br>Can´t wait for next year already!<br>

    #47150
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I just dont bet at Cheltenham .. I find the racing too competitive. Don’t get me wrong it’s a great spectacle but betting for me is just throwing money away.

    #47151
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Go along with just about all of Carvills points there….good post

    Something i think is often overlooked in novices is pure experience, Cheltenham or not….

    Much prefer a battle hardened runner of some quality (Katchit, Cork all star) than the inexperienced horses (Mountain…aran concerto) who have tended to run in soft races or small fields

    It astonished me that mountain went off at around the same price as Katchit<br>

    #47152
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    I’ve just checked and, in fact, that feeling of disappointment was more than justified. I lost a lot, lot more than I’d thought at Cheltenham.

    Nor was the feeling helped by having bet substantially (in my nickel and dime terms) on Detroit City at 26s and 14s, Hardy Eustace at 9s (neither of which had let me down in the past), Nickname at 35s and 33s, My Way de Solzen in the Ballymore, 16s,  Buena Vista at 20s, Aran Concerto at 16s and 14s, Liberate at 25s, Dom D’Orgeval, 23s.

    If I had the money and inclination to lay bets on horse I bet on at big prices, I might do quite well from it, but I don’t and I don’t.  But all I’d have done at Cheltenham, I think – apart from reducing potential, though in the event unrealised, profits –  would have been to minimise my losses.

    The point I’m making is that while I was congratulating myself warmly on getting sometimes very big prices on horses that came down to 2nd or 3rd in the betting, for me at least, it didn’t work. It was an abject failure.

    And the lesson is that, a policy I use regularly during the year and which makes me fair profits to small stakes, simply doesn’t transfer to Chelters in the same way. Barry Dennis’s 3 out of 4 is the kind of think I’ll be looking to do next year, God willing.  

    Even remembering the wise words of a forumite here last year that Cheltenham can be a blood-bath to people who see it as a fabulous betting opportunity, over the weeks I went in to the AP market head first (or feet first), when I should have remembered the truth known so well by Barry Dennis, and which is part of Australian folklore,  namely that the head is for thinking and the feet are for crushing grapes.

    I had a little on Pedrobob and Kawagino ew, but in that field I have to ascribe more than a little luck to that. The one I’m particularly pleased with, in what I consider to be that unique Cheltenham context, was HeadsOnTheGround at 7.8 with Betfair and Denman at 7s.

    Nickname didn’t run, My Way de Solzen ran in the "wrong" race (and won!), apart from failures I could make excuses for but might have been due to poor jumping, if only in fields that size.

    Thank goodness I’ve been able to make money at other meetings during that run-up to the great day, and recoup some more recently via Lankawi, Sgt Schultz, Baron Windrush, Watamu, Lady Bahia, Kabis Amigo, and today Royal Katidoki and Gidam Gidam. Imo, Cheltenham is a whole ‘nother ball-game!

    (Edited by Grimes at 8:04 pm on Mar. 19, 2007)<br>

    (Edited by Grimes at 8:06 pm on Mar. 19, 2007)

    #47153
    PAULCS
    Member
    • Total Posts 529

    <br>I got the majority of my bets on in the week leading up to the Festival which seemed like a good idea as I obtained some good value with NRNB as a fall-back.

    However, this meant that after having a good opening 3 days, I couldn’t keep stakes low on the Friday as I’d already dived in. Backing Degas Art, Black Harry, L’Ami, Patches & Saintsaire (Pedrobob salvaged it a bit) meant that despite having 6 winners in all, I made a loss which is disappointing.

    Just got to regroup and get ready for Aintree;)

    #47154
    aston
    Member
    • Total Posts 168

    All it takes is one nice priced winner to pay for the week. I was at Chelts for the first time this year. Brilliant week. Was losing my stones until the thursday when I had a nice e/w bet on L’Antartique in the opener at 25s, and then I backed Drever, so I was well up going in to the Friday, and I could afford a sizeable bet on Kauto. It could easily have gone the other way, thats the nature of Cheltenham, but I did quite well all told.

    #47155
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Quote: from Grimes on 8:01 pm on Mar. 19, 2007[br]

    And the lesson is that, a policy I use regularly during the year and which makes me fair profits to small stakes, simply doesn’t transfer to Chelters in the same way. Barry Dennis’s 3 out of 4 is the kind of think I’ll be looking to do next year, God willing.  

    Errrmm, maybe I should point out that BD’s 3 winners out of 4 were in fact his ‘Bismarcks’ ;)

    #47156
    Nixer
    Member
    • Total Posts 105

    One lesson.

    Don’t bother backing horses at the festival get on the exchanges and set yoursefl up as a bookie.  In my memory I can only think of one year that the bookies had it bad and we never heard the end of it. They used it as their excuse for not giving on ounce of value for the rest of the year….. not that they ever do give value…but that year they managed to give less

    Apart from that I’ve learned not to over commit and have massive liabilities going into  the festival. This year i did not have one single pre festival bet and as a result by the time I actually hit a bet i wasn’t so far behind that I managed to level myself off.

    #47157
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    I ended up just down thanks to Kauto and wichita lineman in a double. Whyso Mayo would have put me ahead had he won by some way but was not to be..

    What I have learned is when you have a field of potentially top class animals it is stupid to focus on the market principals!! Joes Edge being a classic example.  plummeted down the weights, trainer had all of a sudden come to form ;)  and two favourites in fifty years had won. I backed Juveigneur to place, but in hindsight this horse was on a mark which was only 3lbs higher than when he won the scottish national. He also won in spite of being hampered after the second so dependent on what the handicapper does he may have more winning in him. Seems to be a spring horse. Ferdy seems to be a spring trainer as well, perhaps he dislikes the cold!

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 31 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.