- This topic has 30 replies, 19 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
- Total Posts 170
Great thread.
I have taken notes – just need to be disciplined now and follow some of the advise.
I. Drever saved my festival from being an absolute disaster…and then Kauto made it relatively in profit after backing before the king george to win the betfair million. But apart from that, I had a mare.
Wit,
I think Mr Murphy is pretty good at kidding the handicapper. ;) :biggrin:
L’Antartique won well when he hadn’t really shown enough to suggest he’d win the race either, perhaps there was a fair bit to work on after his last couple of runs.
A winner at the festival is worth ten anywhere else ;)
Bismarks or Scharnhorsts, makes no odds, reet hard, I meant win bets.
But I must say though I’d never take a tip publicly given out by a bookie, play or lay. No offence to Barry, of course. I sure wouldn’t want to advise punters how to win from me, if I were a bookie.
I think it is just wrong to focus too much on the punting at the Festival. Some might find that a strange comment. Was with some people who did some serious money on Well Chief after winning well on Denman and it just ruined their festival. I cannot see the value in lumping on short priced favs and would not back anything at less that 3/1. Must prefer to enjoy each race for what it is rather than chasing losses and loosing objectivity.
Maybe I am speaking through my pocket as I had a fantastic festival betting wise. I decided to back in every race a level stake (e/w only if 20/1+) plus had three maximum bets (with two wins).
Most of the races I decided to punt against the fav looking for place value. In most cases my bet was placed just before each race. This resulted in a 20/1 & a 40/1 winner with a number of decent places.
Whatever it was good fun. Lost it a little in the last 3 races when I got greedy and doubled up my stake on big priced horses who in retrospec had little chance. could kick myself for missing Pedrobob.
I’ve just been looking back at my results in last year’s festival, and can see how I got sucked in. It seems to have been a "sucker punch". Two 33/1 winners, and a 14/1 winner, thanks to Nick Mordin’s website, and 20/1 shot of my own. Though that was probably remembered from a Mordin write-up.
But highly as I rate him, I think that year was unusual, and I doubt if even he can find a trio of such winners  most years. So, my betting is still going to be be tempered by much greater caution.
(Edited by Grimes at 1:35 am on Mar. 21, 2007)
I´ve given punting on the Festival a lot of thought since I had my first bets on it at 16 when my Dad went and allowed me to phone his bookie to have a bet, knowing full well that I would do my brains, the shame of which was the best lesson I´ve ever had!<br>I think you will be making a mistake to restrict yourself to 3 or 4 bets Grimes. Think about it like this. Suppose a gambler at the casino is able to identify numbers on the roulette wheel which are genuine 20-1 chances. If he comes in once a year and places 4 bets, he will lose most years, but win over the course of his life. Unless he is supremely confident in his system , he will find it hard to endure losing 3 or 4 years in a row, which is bound to happen.<br>Unless you are betting at relatively short prices, which at Cheltenham are unlikely to offer value, you must be prepared to accept a lower strike rate on your bets. If you have some kind of method to discover value bets, then I think it makes sense, within reason, to have many bets, even if the value on some is marginal, because it will smooth the occurrence of winning and losing in any given year. If our gambler places 30 or 40 bets every visit, he will win almost every year.<br>To take a real racing example, you decide the market in the William Hill Chase is wrong to favour the top weights. You find one lowly weighted horse at 25-1 which you feel is a genuine 10-1 chance. You research further and find 2 more which offer value, but not to the same degree. I argue that you should split stkes between the 3, having most on the one offering the best value, perhaps betting win and place on it. Over the course of the races you feel confident in over the 4 days, this approach will make a profit far more likely, if your assessment of value is near the mark.
On reflection, I expect you’re right, carvilleshill, though it’s unlikey  to ever be the cake-walk I expected it to be after 2006.
On the other hand, I can only think Detroit was jaded mentally, and had he won I’d have been laughing. Some horses might need motivation after a series of hard races, even if they can take it physically, often appearing to win easily.
Though, I believe, it is particularly true, physically,  of flat horses who win top flight handicaps under 10 st, when they seem to win laughing at the rest of the field.  I’ve seen it and then seen the horse fail to reproduce anything like his form ever again. Particularly, I would say from 10 f+. ÂÂÂ
<br>Then again, how often would a very good World Hurdle winner the previous year be entered for the Arkle and win it. Not that I mistrusted King’s judgement, I just felt too over-committed to him in the Sun Alliance to want to venture more on him in the Arkle. False economy I suppose, but hard to see past when you don’t want to be too profligate. Pusillanimity clouded my judgement – top horses seldom let you down. <br> <br>One kind of race I shall be schewing, though, are the novice hurdles, with their innumerable brilliantly-bred, high-class, flat, "talking horses".
- <br>
- Next year, I shall not be going on the razzle to Dublin for a weekend immediately before the Festival.
- In addition, I shall have a decently early night once during the week (Wednesday I think).
- I will scream myself hoarse at least once a day and then again in the evening at the Beehive.
- I will remember to talk to Mounty the day before he goes through the card, rather that the day after.
- I will ‘donate’ money to Martyn of Leicester, just because I feel sorry for him.
- I will attempt to be vigilant when blatantly chatted up by stunning Irish lasses who think they might recognise me from off the telly. That’s actually true, and yet was lost on me at the time  ~ either I’m too much of a gent or a complete idiot, the jury is out.  <br>
<br>
Rules for next year….
1) I shall stay in the night after I go through the card rather than spend most of it on pink champagne at £80 a pop. It’s no coincidence that the night before I was in bed at 11pm watching newsnight.
2) I shall not fall over when singing along to "Ruby Ruby Ruby" in the 21Club…or was it Club21…it’s all a blur.
3) I shall not fall over when dancing along to the Pogues at 4am in the Beehive.
4) I shall back all of Ferdy Murphy’s chasers rather than all except 50-1 winner Joes Edge (who I lumped on at 200-1 for last year’s Gold Cup).
5) If, three days before the Festival, I spot Noah’s Ark in Cheltenham high Street, I shall not assume the going will be soft or heavy for day one.
6) I shall not hide my readies in the hotel room when already p**s
ed.7) If, given the choice of cheese and biscuits or a proper desert in the hotel near the Montpelier wine bar, I’ll opt for chocolate stodge cake, cheescake, creme brulee or one of those weird saffron pear thingies. I don’t know what they put in ‘Stinking Bishop’ cheese but it didn’t react favourably with the poached egg and spinach i had for breakfast the next day.
<br>Will never back a Meade horse at the Festival again. 2 from 98 I think the record is now:o
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.