- This topic has 79 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 9 months ago by
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April 22nd
Hexham 4.40 Perouse LAY £20 @ 11/10 WON<br>BANK = £2056.75
Pontefract 4.50 Kylkenny LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2076.75
Windsor 5.00 Slupia LAY £20 @ 11/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2096.75
152 Plays, BANK UP £1096.75. 116 Wins, 36 Losses.
A nice start for you ihaventalight if you were doing it with the real money today!
Hi Larry,
Why do the last race favourites lose so often?
May seem an obvious question but there’s got to be some reason for it…i think!
Well done so far…it’s been good fun following the results…keep up the great work :) Rob.
robgomm, I have asked myself this same question! I can’t come up with a concrete answer.. In reality there isn’t a huge gap statistically between the last favourite and the others – just a small one, but its big enough for us to exploit ! ;) anyone got any ideas ?
On some occaisions I think it could be down to punters looking to back value in the last race in order to make back loses – this could produce a favourite which might not be the best horse in the race.
The obvious answer is that conditions in the last race level the playing ground in some way – this is essential what is happening. – but how ? I’m not a racing expert, but could the use of the ground by the previous horses possibly level the abilities slightly of horses in later races ?
Do the horses just not like racing later in the day ? I’m sure someone can throw up some ideas.
Ihaventalight – I know just how you feel at the moment! Busy season for me ;)
April 23rd
Exeter 4.50 Hard To Know LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2116.75
Folkstone 5.00 Sienna Star LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST<br>BANK = £2136.75
Wetherby 5.10 Bold Bishop LAY £20 @ 19/5 WON<br>BANK = £2060.75
155 Plays, BANK UP £1060.75. 118 Wins, 37 Losses.
Another reason why some of the last race favourite loose could be down to fact that a lot of last races are either bumpers or hunter chases. With so few of these run during a season the form is, at best, patchy. Punters often go for a bumper that won last time out without considering the oppostion, going, distance etc.<br>However, I think Larry’s opinion about people chasing losses on the last ‘get out’ race is about right.<br> I once went to Haydock with a group of Rugby players who considered the last race fav a cert, whatever the form. Hence all remaining money left in the kitty was placed on the fav at 3-1. The fav went off at 7-4 and finished a very distant seventh… out of seven! According to one member of the group, it was the jockey’s fault:cheesy: <br>Interestingly, the 2nd fav won.<br>I would be interested in seeing stats on first race favs. I’m sure bookies don’t mind them winning. Confidence soars, beer flows, stakes rise etc to an obvious conclusion.
<br>A friend of mine whose been betting on racing for many more years than i’ve been alive talked about a first race favourites system once.
It was quite simple, probably a but like the First Favourite’s system we have on the Workshop that Matron does.
Probably spot on about the ‘get out stakes’ factor. Derek Thompson saying ‘it’s time for the lucky last’ probably influences some poor people to bet. Maybe Thommo’s tipping service is always tipping the favourite in the last race? Nah…people don’t follow Thommo’s tips….do they?
Right, I’ve jumped in with both feet.
I’ll let you know how it goes.
Naturally, my first lay yesterday was Karalinga Bay – won 9/2. Well 6s with me – as you can see I need practice at getting decent odds!! <br>
April 24th
Epsom 4.50 Tribal Prince LAY £20 @ 5/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2080.75
Catterick 5.30 Pinchbeck LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2100.75
Perth 5.40 Long Walk LAY £20 @ 11/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2120.75
158 Plays, BANK UP £1120.75. 121 Wins, 37 Losses.
I have to say this is much trickier than it sounds (if you do actually locate the favourite as I failed to do in my haste yesterday!)
At Beverley the market had Polish Corridor fave, but it was a fluctuating market – especially on betfair with two other horses often being shorter – having to constantly switch between betfair and a window with bookie’s odds – I really struggled to lay at anything like decent odds, missing out in the end. It lost – unlayed.
Quickly over to Perth. Cambrian Dawn went off 3/1f. The lowest it ever was on betfair was 4/1. I was pretty pleased with myself to get the lowest price available – until it won in a driving photo finish. Obviously, now I think I should have sat it out at the odds.
Desmond Tutu in the last at Fontwell was much easier. 7/4f. Got 7/4 on betfair. Shame it won!
Bad luck Tooting; it always "sod’s law" that when you actually put your money down it goes wrong.
Stick with it though as you should win in the long run.
Regards – Matron<br>:cool: <br>
tooting, Matron is right… even if you actually miss the favourite, but you get the shortest odds you can – you will still win in the end, stick with it. Remember the probability is on your side ;) As for switching between windows.. I do this constantly when I’m betting on sports events in running, usually with 3/4 bookies open at the same time. You’ll get quicker with practice! Another thing to consider is opening a window and resizing / repositioning it so that it is displayed at the side of the betfair screen, to refresh just right mouse click then click refresh. ;) This is what I do with ftse / dow jones betting – u can constantly keep an eye on it. You also have sites like smartbet which automatically update and show you the odds shortening/lengthing in different colours. Very helpful.
Thanks larry – especially about smartbet – very useful.
Don’t worry – I’ll stick with it every day I’m not working – at least until I’m in profit!!!
I’m having a dogdy time too at the moment! 5pts down.
I can’t play every day – when I do play, the favourites bolt in, and… well you can guess the rest :cheesy:
I would say definitely sit out a race if you can’t get close to what you think the SP is going to be. I didn’t lay Cambrian Dawn at all, and felt very smug when he bolted in – only to have my smug grin wiped with the last result. Bah.
Smartbet is definitely a useful tool.
(Edited by RichK at 9:07 pm on April 25, 2002)
Thats the key, if you can’t get on at a short enough price, sit it out.. profit will come in time.
A quick way to switch between windows – ctrl + shift. Very useful when switching between oddschecker and betfair!<br>
April 25th
Beverly 4.40 Polish Corridor LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2140.75
Perth 4.50 Cambrian Dawn LAY £20 @ 16/5 WON<br>BANK = £2076.75
Fontwell 5.00 Desmond Tutu LAY £20 @ 15/8 WON<br>BANK = £2039.25
April 26th
Sandown 5.10 Golden Bounty LAY £20 @ 4/1 WON<br>BANK = £1959.25
Wolverhampton 5.15 Ashton Vale LAY £20 @ 9/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1979.25
Perth 5.25 Mister Wellard LAY £20 @ 13/5 WON<br>BANK = £1927.25
164 Plays, BANK UP £927.35. 123 Wins, 41 Losses.
Bit of a bad two days there, those averages have to correct themselves every now and then. RP site hasn’t updated the results from Saturday’s last races yet, will update when they have.
April 27th
Sedgefield 4.50 Business Class LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1947.25
Sandown 5.15 Island Light LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1967.25
Market Rasen 5.25 Tallison LAY £20 @ 13/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1987.25
Leicester 5.30 Muwassi LAY £20 @ 8/13 LOST<br>BANK = £2007.25
Ripon 5.35 Cozy Maria LAY £20 @ 8/11 WON<br>BANK = £1992.70
169 Plays, BANK UP £992.70. 127 Wins, 42 Losses.
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