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Can anyone on here present a cogent argument why Kingsgate Native won the Nunthorpe today other than the fact that he received a ton of weight.
He had achieved smart form after just two races and was opento further improvement, looks the part as a sprinter, and HE RECEIVED TOO MUCH WEIGHT.
brendam
I think he was simply the best horse at the weights on the day.
He won very readily and I didn’t see any hard luck stories behind.
Perhaps he is more mature than the average 2yo and therefore the weight for age allowance was quite generous in his case. The scale of weight for age(WFA) is only an average and there are bound to be some youngsters who are favourably treated.
The time was quite good and he wasn’t unfancied, although strictly on the book he had something to find – about 10lbs or so. That said, he’s only had two races in his life, so he was likely to find some of that, which he duly did.
He comes out about 18lb(WFA =16lbs) behind Dandy Man, so he is on a par with him, making him one of the top sprinters.
Well I fancied him…
3:10 York (Nunthorpe)
Being a bit of a speed-figure slave, I’m drawn towards taking a chance on KINGSGATE NATIVE[/color:1wjnw765] today, given that this juvenile has bounced in two very smart performances (both on the clock and visually) and seems to have a favourable draw.
Obviously, even with a massive weight allowance, the hustle and bustle of a contest like this and the basic speed of some of these experienced sprinters will require a smart performance, but 12/1+ makes him look a reasonably tempting proposition.
Not that that usually means a lot…
The weight-for-age scale is wrong when applied to 2yos, and some people have been arguing that for a long time.
That said, even if the w-f-a scale had been "right" Kingsgate Native would surely have been in there scrapping for one of the first three places. He won with too much authority to think otherwise.
Something is not right. How the hell do you rate the Nunthorpe?
On todays running I get Kingsgate Native running to wait for it ………… 122. That is above what I get Notnowcato and Dutch Art and the like. That cannot be right when this horse can’t even beat its own age group.
Rate him any lower and the rest of the marks look ridiculous.
Pru,
Some people, even knowledgeable ones on this forum, believe that weight doesn’t make much difference at all, never mind the inequallities of the WFA scale.
Flash,
That looks about right, maybe a pound or two lower.
Which wfa scale are you using? The BHB one is deeply flawed. Timeform have 2yos favoured by 7 lb in the Nunthorpe, and that’s possibly being conservative.
Pru,
Some people, even knowledgeable ones on this forum, believe that weight doesn’t make much difference at all, never mind the inequallities of the WFA scale.
My own personal view is that weight only matters when you’re talking half a stone and above. I really don’t think the odd pound or two makes a jot of difference.
Just my view, I know many will disagree.
How much do they allow for 2yos in this instance?
Timeform allow 17lb, The Sportsman used to allow 16 lb. Kingsgate Native received 24 lb.
There’s little doubt that the wfa scale for 2-y-os, particularly over sprint distances, is a few pounds out.
In the 1950s, 2-y-os won the race 3 times in 4 years (High Treason,MyBeau and Ennis), but nothing was done about it.
Nevertheless, a smart performance by a fast-improving, and now top class colt.
Can I put my hand up please Sir!!!
My ratings method which has been under development for years takes very little account of weight in the sense of handicapping. And yes KN was clear top rated.
I wonder if connections of Fleeting Spirit aren’t rueing the fact that they did not give it a go as well. Seeing as she already beat KN, she looked like she was taking a pretty keen hold in the Lowther on the part of the track that did not produce one winner today.
Would she not as a filly have received an additional 3lbs?
Even realizing that they surely have more ambitious plans for next year a Nunthorpe in the bag as a 2yo can’t be taken away from you regardless how the rest of her career plays out.
I too believe that 16/17 lbs. would be about right and second Pru’s conclusion that KN would have been in the mix even at those weights.
Makes you wonder why more trainers dont take advantage of what is apparently a flaw in the weight scale.
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