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Kingsgate Native

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  • #4923
    brendanr
    Member
    • Total Posts 196

    Can anyone on here present a cogent argument why Kingsgate Native won the Nunthorpe today other than the fact that he received a ton of weight.

    #112304
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    He had achieved smart form after just two races and was opento further improvement, looks the part as a sprinter, and HE RECEIVED TOO MUCH WEIGHT.

    #112305
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    brendam

    I think he was simply the best horse at the weights on the day.

    He won very readily and I didn’t see any hard luck stories behind.

    Perhaps he is more mature than the average 2yo and therefore the weight for age allowance was quite generous in his case. The scale of weight for age(WFA) is only an average and there are bound to be some youngsters who are favourably treated.

    The time was quite good and he wasn’t unfancied, although strictly on the book he had something to find – about 10lbs or so. That said, he’s only had two races in his life, so he was likely to find some of that, which he duly did.

    He comes out about 18lb(WFA =16lbs) behind Dandy Man, so he is on a par with him, making him one of the top sprinters.

    #112306
    non vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    Well I fancied him…

    3:10 York (Nunthorpe)

    Being a bit of a speed-figure slave, I’m drawn towards taking a chance on KINGSGATE NATIVE[/color:1wjnw765] today, given that this juvenile has bounced in two very smart performances (both on the clock and visually) and seems to have a favourable draw.

    Obviously, even with a massive weight allowance, the hustle and bustle of a contest like this and the basic speed of some of these experienced sprinters will require a smart performance, but 12/1+ makes him look a reasonably tempting proposition.

    Not that that usually means a lot…

    #112307
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    The weight-for-age scale is wrong when applied to 2yos, and some people have been arguing that for a long time.

    That said, even if the w-f-a scale had been "right" Kingsgate Native would surely have been in there scrapping for one of the first three places. He won with too much authority to think otherwise.

    #112308
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Something is not right. How the hell do you rate the Nunthorpe?

    On todays running I get Kingsgate Native running to wait for it ………… 122. That is above what I get Notnowcato and Dutch Art and the like. That cannot be right when this horse can’t even beat its own age group.

    Rate him any lower and the rest of the marks look ridiculous.

    #112310
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Pru,

    Some people, even knowledgeable ones on this forum, believe that weight doesn’t make much difference at all, never mind the inequallities of the WFA scale.

    Flash,

    That looks about right, maybe a pound or two lower.

    #112311
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    Which wfa scale are you using? The BHB one is deeply flawed. Timeform have 2yos favoured by 7 lb in the Nunthorpe, and that’s possibly being conservative.

    #112313
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    Yes, Artemis, I am aware that these people exist.

    #112314
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Pru,

    Some people, even knowledgeable ones on this forum, believe that weight doesn’t make much difference at all, never mind the inequallities of the WFA scale.

    My own personal view is that weight only matters when you’re talking half a stone and above. I really don’t think the odd pound or two makes a jot of difference.

    Just my view, I know many will disagree.

    #112315
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    I’m using the RP WFA which must be about the same as Timeform.

    #112316
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    How much do they allow for 2yos in this instance?

    Timeform allow 17lb, The Sportsman used to allow 16 lb. Kingsgate Native received 24 lb.

    #112318
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    They allow 16lbs

    #112319
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    Well, I would agree with that. The BHB does not, though!

    #112320
    Venusian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1665

    There’s little doubt that the wfa scale for 2-y-os, particularly over sprint distances, is a few pounds out.

    In the 1950s, 2-y-os won the race 3 times in 4 years (High Treason,MyBeau and Ennis), but nothing was done about it.

    Nevertheless, a smart performance by a fast-improving, and now top class colt.

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