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Well done, Wallace.
I suppose you must have taken the view that KN was one of the best sprinting 2yos (and still open to some improvement?) and able to mix it with top older sprinters provided he was on a level playing field through WFA. I appreciate WFA is not the same as giving weight in handicaps to horses of the same age.
Artemis, it was all done by the software! I don’t have any input on a daily basis other than estimating the going allowance. WFA has absolutely no part in my calculations.
I have gone into my database and listed the key variables for KN today and the numbers point to a horse having only two previous runs, (both high class events) that have worked out way above average levels. Captain Gerrard winning a good race yesterday had a big part in promoting the chances of KN today.
My fault. Should read properly rather than doing work at the same time! Apologies brendanr!
Of course a two-year-old’s chance in this year’s race might benefit from the abscence of any truly decent older sprinter. It may have been a Group 1 race but the 3-y-o’s and upwards hardly set the pulse racing.
It strikes me that calculating the ‘correct’ 2yo wfa is seriously hindered by the lack of actual evidence against their elders i.e. small sample size. Can only think of the Nunthorpe, Scarbrough and Abbaye
Were there more such races in the dim and distant?
It could well have been owner John Mayne as the brains behind the decision to go for this race.
John used to have a bookies credit business but is a very very shrewd judge.
I dont think he is a member of this site but I know he used to read through the posts on this website.
So if your around John well done.
Expect a big party at The Tattenhams I suppose!
Pity I did not back it!
There’s no reason to question the winner or the merit of the race. I believe that KN could turn out to be a bit special.
The horse was quite unfortunate to go into the race a maiden – he could have easily entered the race an unbeaten juvenile. His inexperience only prevented him from landing the Windsor Castle on his debut. His Molecomb second, giving 4lb to Lowther third Fleeting Spirit (would have been closer had she settled today), proved to be a decent effort. The form of both races have produced solid form lines.
He won in such an authoritive manner that you have to believe the weight he received only made a small impact on the result. There’s no reason to believe that the horse was in anyway flattered by the result or his victory was a fluke. Solid yardsticks like Dandy Man, Red Clubs and Amadeus Wolf all ran their races and he comprehensively defeated last years Prix de l’Abbeye winner Desert Lord.
The WFA debate will rumble on and on. Enticing, unbeaten in three starts and winner of the Molecomb that year, ran in the 2006 Nunthorpe receiving a further 3lb and could only manage 13th (of 14).
Bosranic, your statement "He won in such an authoritive manner that you have to believe the weight he received only made a small impact on the result.". This is absolutely spot on.
When a horse is in good condition, is progressive and placed in a race with conditions to suit, weight is almost irrelevant. This point is absolutely fundamental to the way I have been working over the last few years.
Tinkering with small adjustment to weight (up to about 10lbs) and wrestling with the theoretical WFA scale may be worthwhile to some people but it ain’t for me. Best to stand back and look at the big picture.
It begs the question when does a racehorse reach it’s peak?
The racing calendar has installed such priority towards three-year-old races featuring the colts and fillies classics presumably fueled by the breeding industry, but witnessing a juvenile destroy our sprint division certainly sparks several question marks.
When you view horses of the classic generation "wired to the moon" today gave a completly refreshing winners enclosure with a bright 2yo with unfashionable silks enjoying their "moment in the sun"
Kingsgate Native looks certain to be joining a bigger outfit for his subsequent runs BUT I’m convinced today was good for racing.
Unfortunate the Haydock Sprint Cup isn’t open to 2yo’s….
i don’t think weight matters too much it just depends on the horse really, when age comes into it i think it depends on how the horse is developing physically, and how much weight he can carry until it effects his performance.
ground plays a big part in the horses performance more so than weight
just my opinion anyway
but a big strong powerful sprinter to me has the conformation to carry a big weight
Prufrock
I’m an empiricist not a rationalist
Older horse runs 5f in 59 sec on same day as 2yo runs 5f in 60 sec. Repeat experiment several thousand times in a season with varying results.
Tinkering with small adjustment to weight (up to about 10lbs)
The difference in weights carried between the majority of the field yesterday and the winner was 24 lb. You will find few bigger weight differentials in the entire season and none in a non-handicap.
As a matter of interest, do you believe that weight played ANY part in the result of the Nunthorpe?
The fact that Kingsgate Native has beaten 15 older topsprinters including 4 Gr1 winners tells me that he is a very special horse. And this has nothing to do with weight.
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