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I think the Betfair would be a mistake for Cue Card. Usually very soft ground and only a month before the King George, surely the best plan is to give CC a few easy days and prep him for Kempton and hope there’s some decent ground.
The prize money for some of these staying chases is appalling. 17k for the Denman Chase in February.
That was my initial thinking, Mark. But looking back, some of his best runs have come within a month of a previous one, even over hurdles.
His Ryanair romp was 28 days after his Ascot win and he went on to run a cracker at Aintree behind SS.
His (relatively) poor run in the Supreme came after a lay off of more than 3 months, whereas his three very good runs prior to the Supreme were compressed into 6 weeks.
I’m coming round to the Betfair idea. If he emerges OK from Exeter, I might be reaching for my ante-post sixgun …
They’ve happened later in a season when he’s already proved his fitness. However, giving Somersby 17lbs is no mean feat.
He might have just tweaked something when slipping at the fourth
I’d wait. I’m yet to be convinced he’s a 3 miler and a slog round Haydock with Bobs Worth breathing down his neck…
I’d go King George then Ascot, Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown.
JT often leaves CC to decide how best he’s going to get from one side to the other. He knows the horse better than anyone, but it never looks good to my eye, and when ridden in with commitment, CC always seems to deliver at fences.
JT claims the slip today at the 4th ‘knocked his confidence’ (I’m assuming he was talking about the horse). RP summary says CC did not look fully fit in the paddock.
You clearly don’t have much confidence in the rider so why be so bullish about the horse? The horse is not a fluent jumper and personally I wouldn’t take a short price about Tizzard winning on anything.
As for the Betfair I think Haydock is very much a speed test these days so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Bobs Worth swerved the race. I suppose it depends on how much they are bothered about breaking his winning sequence.
JT often leaves CC to decide how best he’s going to get from one side to the other. He knows the horse better than anyone, but it never looks good to my eye, and when ridden in with commitment, CC always seems to deliver at fences.
JT claims the slip today at the 4th ‘knocked his confidence’ (I’m assuming he was talking about the horse). RP summary says CC did not look fully fit in the paddock.
You clearly don’t have much confidence in the rider so why be so bullish about the horse? The horse is not a fluent jumper and personally I wouldn’t take a short price about Tizzard winning on anything.
As for the Betfair I think Haydock is very much a speed test these days so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Bobs Worth swerved the race. I suppose it depends on how much they are bothered about breaking his winning sequence.
He’s far from fluent, and there’s always a heart-in-mouth feeling at each fence. But he has some engine and he’s never fallen. Given the choice, I’d have someone else on him, but when a change was mooted to Colin, he said that Joe’s knowledge of the horse’s quirks made him the best rider, so far as he was concerned.
Cue Card’s perfectly capable of throwing some fine jumps, which tend to coincide with Joe counting him in properly and asking him up. But the horse has always been a free runner and I can only assume that he wants to try and go steady with him over the first three or four to get the fizz out of him – a chancy strategy – witness his awful blunder at the first in the KG and another bad mistake at the 2nd.
Joe seems to have a policy that if he is not certain he sees a stride, he’ll let the horse fiddle. Remember Newbury V Bobs Worth when he had the race sewn up only to do exactly that at the last, steady him down and let him fiddle it?
That I’m a huge fan of the horse is obvious, but my bullishness around the KG – certainly in my original blog post, was based on the value aspect. I was almost certain the first and second best wouldn’t run, and that he’d end up both the highest rated and the best horse in the race. He’s bred to get the trip. There might still be a pound or two of improvement in him and if Kempton got its usual good to soft, or even soft, 12/1 was a nonsense price. As is 10s and 8s imo. The only one I fear at the moment is Al Ferof and I’ve saved on him. Otherwise I’m up to my neck in Cue Card. I might well know my fate by the end of this month rather than having to wait for Boxing Day.
Despite his past easy victories at Ascot and Exeter, I suspect he’s slightly better going left handed and if CT announces over the next few days that he’s committing to the Betfair, I’ll happily take plenty of the 12s.
As to Haydock’s stiffness: Here’s Mick Fitz:
"It’s a very different course since they changed the configuration. They’ve made it a lot easier, nothing like as testing, except when the ground is soft.
It’s certainly not as stiff as it used to be, but it’s still tough for a novice, because the fences perhaps don’t ride quite as well as they used to. On the whole, however, it’s a very fair course, and a good test, though when the ground’s quick it can feel a bit like a go-kart track. Times on a firm surface can be very fast."
In the 8 runnings of the Betfair, it’s been officially soft 3 times; good to soft the remainder
Here’s Mick Fitz:
"It’s certainly not as stiff as it used to be, but it’s still tough"
Was that a quote from Mick’s book Joe?
http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i237/scorrie57/mickfitz_zps87d3e520.jpg
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You might be right, SteveCC confirmed as targeting Haydock . . .
Trainer Colin Tizzard is relishing a tilt at the Betfair Chase with Cue Card following his defeat in Tuesday’s Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter.
Last season’s Ryanair Chase hero was a hot favourite for the Grade 2 contest, despite conceding upwards of a stone to each of his opponents.
While he ultimately came up short, Cue Card was not disgraced in finishing third behind Somersby and Module and he will now step up to three miles for only the second time in his career at Haydock on November 23.
After the race at Exeter yesterday trainer Colin Tizzard said:
"Joe (Tizzard) said he rides like a three-miler, so we will head to Haydock for the Betfair Chase".
The report from the trainer today is that his stable star has come out of the race in good shape.
Tizzard said: "He’s absolutely fine this morning and he just got a bit tired at the end."
"He was giving all that weight away and we’ve all seen it happen before haven’t we?"
"The main thing is he trotted out lovely this morning, which means we can look forward to the Betfair. That will be a lovely race for him."
The ante-post ammo belt has been emptied on Betfair at 12s
I would imagine if anyone had to pick a winner to save their lives it would be course specialist Long Run. Simple?
Gone at the game.
I would imagine if anyone had to pick a winner to save their lives it would be course specialist Long Run. Simple?
Gone at the game.
I don’t see how you can say that JJM, the horse is a model of consistency, having won top notch races and only going down to some very good horses.
His recent race was the only time he has not been placed, and he scoped very badly after the race (high on the scale). He probably felt like sh*t whilst he was running but still tried his heart out.
I’m with you Peruvian, I think he is most certainly the likeliest winner of the King George, and I’ve put my money where my mouth is by having a decent bet on him when he drifted out to 10/1. Assuming he recovers from whatever ails him, you won’t get anything like 10/1 come race day.
If I’m wrong, I’ll be shown to be wrong come boxing day, I’m very happy to take that chance.
Also worth noting that Long Run has never won on his reappearance to start a season off which is an interesting fact given how good he is.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Also worth noting that Long Run has never won on his reappearance to start a season off which is an interesting fact given how good he is.
You are absolutely right Nathan, he always has come on for his first run, I think that is very much down to the way he has been trained by Nicky Henderson, who sets the horse up to peak for his main aims, which in the past three years have been the King George and the Gold Cup. I wouldn’t go as far as saying he schools him in his first race, but it is intended to bring him on.
As you will have gathered with my posts on this thread, I’m a big Long Run fan, but in the Charlie Hall, my opinion that I voiced in that thread was as follows….
.
I then went on at length explaining why I thought Harry Topper was my idea of a decent bet at 8/1.
I try not to sentimentalise horses, otherwise I would wrongly have stuck with Long Run, and missed a decent winner. I’m not sorry he lost, I half expected that, I was just concerned that he was unwell.
I expect Nicky Henderson to rejig his preparation, and to have him spot on by the time of the KG. I still say that 10/1 is a huge price for a horse who has run 4 times at this time of year over C&D, the Felthan in 2009 and the KG the three subsequent years, winning three times and going down in a monumental race with Kauto Star in 2011, where Kauto put up possibly his best display, being described in the race review as "awesome", no disgrace there.
I don’t think Bobs Worth will run, and I have doubts about Silviniaco Conti turning up, although if he did he would be a threat. This would leave Cue Card at the head of the market, and forgive me Joe I know you are very keen on him, but he has only once run over 3m and was comprehensively beaten 20 lengths by Long Run, albeit on heavy ground. This doesn’t make sense.
If Silviniaco Conti (and BW) doesn’t line up, Long Run will go off favourite, I’m pretty sure on that. I would imagine he will be no better than 3/1, if that. I think he will win the race, and unless he is unwell I don’t think it’s possible he will finish outside the first three. That being the case, 10/1 e/w is a gift which the bookies don’t normally hand out. I think the penny will drop with them long before the race and his price will shorten considerably.
I’m looking forward to this more that Christmas
I don’t think Bobs Worth will run, and I have doubts about Silviniaco Conti turning up, although if he did he would be a threat. This would leave Cue Card at the head of the market, and forgive me Joe I know you are very keen on him, but he has only once run over 3m and was comprehensively beaten 20 lengths by Long Run, albeit on heavy ground. This doesn’t make sense.
I struggling to see why that would leave Cue Card at the head of the market given that Dynaste is already favourite?
I don’t think Bobs Worth will run, and I have doubts about Silviniaco Conti turning up, although if he did he would be a threat. This would leave Cue Card at the head of the market, and forgive me Joe I know you are very keen on him, but he has only once run over 3m and was comprehensively beaten 20 lengths by Long Run, albeit on heavy ground. This doesn’t make sense.
I struggling to see why that would leave Cue Card at the head of the market given that Dynaste is already favourite?
I’m struggling too Stilvi, it’s not that I didn’t know he was running, I should have said it left Cue Card ahead of Long Run which I thought didn’t make sense, and at that time Dynaste kind of went straight out of my head. No excuses, I had "a senior moment"
……but I still think that Long Run will win.It would appear that the Nicky Henderson stable was behind fitness wise due to the hot summer and firm ground keeping them off the gallops, both Bobs Worth and Long Run have both run way way below their normal form and I cannot have it that they have both lost their form. Long Run is 16/1 each way 1/4 odds 1,2,3 I don’t think there will be many runners with probably around 8 on the day. Cue card beaten last 2 attempts going right handed and 5/2 is very poor value, if he wins as easily as at haydock then will be hot fav for gold cup so much better to back him for double at 16/1, somersby did not frank the exeter form and we will see if exeter form is boosted when runner up runs in peterborough chase today. at current odds long run who is a definite runner is value each way at 16/1, if field cuts up as expected and soft ground prevails he will go off at half those odds
It looks like the market is starting to come to it’s senses with Long Run. The 20s and 16s has well gone, best price on offer is 12/1.
The Charlie Hall was just too bad to be true, he nearly uprooted a fence and his scope was all wrong, I’m forgetting that one. The betfair was a bit different, it was the first time I thought that the flame was maybe starting to flicker, but the Charlie Hall aside, that is just one bad run. He did finish in front of Tidal Bay and Bobs Worth, I don’t think that run makes them donkeys either.
He has never run a bad race in the KG, his form there is just about perfect. After the Betfair, I posted on that thread ……..quote[ If you had offered me 20/1 a month ago for Long Run in the KG, I would have snatched the hand off you, and yet that’s what he is trading at now. I don’t know if he particularly likes Haydock, he has never won there, but he most certainly loves Kempton. If he is anything like the animal he once was, he simply would not be out of the first three on KG day. Kauto Star was all but written off after having run three times in 2011 without a win, only to return in the Betfair in November and romp it at 6/1 !!!!! and then going onto win the KG at 3/1 in what, at 11years, I think was his best performance…officially described as "awesome".
The horse owes me nothing, I’ve had a good return over the years, so I’m not going to give the Nero’s thumbs down just yet, and just for the record, I will stick a few quid on him e/w at 20s and hope that Lazarus wasn’t a one off.] end quote……..
I took the 16s as well, I still can’t see him out of the 1st 3, and even at 12/1 that’s still worth taking.
I know there will be a few detractors here, but I still think there is life in the old dog yet.
I fancy Mount Benbulben, goes well on soft ground, stays well and is better going right handed. If getting into a decent rhythm with his jumping he has a sound each way chance. Not sure if CC will appreciate the conditions, Al Ferof is too delicate for me, SC looks a shadow of last year’s horse, capt Chris has had recent problems, Dynaste will relish the test and can fight it out with the perennial Kempton performer Long Run and my Mt Benbulben.
Al Ferof is not a horse I have been a big fan of and we didn’t learn much more about him in a match last time. It seems sensible to concentrate on the Betfair chase where the first four renew rivalry in this Boxing Day classic.
At first glance it seems Cue Card was a cosy enough winner of the Betfair but I felt that the second and third were coming to perhaps take him on in the run-in that day, before both seemed to come to the end of their tethers relatively quickly and it became clear Cue Card would hold on. With Cue Card now favourite it is vital to look back at his effort in this race last year, where he never really looked likely. The ground was bad that day but it’s still nagging me and I want to take him on
once
more at least in this race.
Long Run has a lot to make up with Cue Card and despite his good record in the race I can’t see him turning around 15-20 lengths with
three
rivals. That leaves Dynaste and Silvianaco Conti as the two to choose from. I have always preferred the latter of those two and I think he has less to prove as a big time player, having won more than twice the prize money of his rival. I reckon Rich is a bit harsh, not to mention premature, in labelling Silvianaco a "shadow" of his former self at the tender age of seven.
If Silvianaco Conti comes on a little for his first run of the season he hardly has a lot of ground to make up on those ahead of him in the betting and he’s worth a go at 6/1 or so for me.
20pts on the hooter!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Perhaps I am being a tad harsh Steve, but it’s only because I have such a high view of the horse. When he won the Charlie Hall, Betfair and Denman Chase I had him down as a potential superstar and big favourite in the Gold Cup only for him to disappoint in that (doesn’t matter to me if he was travelling well you still have to jump!) as well as at Aintree and the Betfair this year. Whether he can get back on track against top class opposition remains to be seen and With the ground likely to be attritional come Boxing Day he has it all to prove for me. On the other hand Mt Benbulben is less exposed and has been getting rave reviews since his mishap last time. Kempton looks tailor made for him in my opinion and at 14/1 is a decent bet.
You might be right, Steve
……but I still think that Long Run will win.
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