- This topic has 353 replies, 54 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
we will know soon enough, if the national was the plan they wouldnt have ran him the other week.
Think Meade was never as keen as the O’Learys but I hoped Disko would come as owner/trainer have Road to Respect for Lexus. Ah well bang goes my 33/1 and the middle leg of my nice EW trixie. Never mind. I reckon all we Irish like to go home to the family for “The Christmas” and it takes a lot to get us away from our own fireside this time of year. And travelling in England in the busy season is a load of brain chafe, sure it’s only Bedlam over there
I’ve just unearthed what I consider to be a really interesting stat…Nick Williams stable form for December for the last five seasons is quite an eye opener…
2012/13 – 5/27 – 19%
2013/14 – 7/23 – 30%
2014/15 – 6/19 – 32%
2015/16 – 4/16 – 25%2016/17 – 0/21 – 0%
In those first four seasons December was the stables best month for number of winners and percentage wise. That makes a real strong argument to say Tea For Two could have been way short of his best last year…
The stable have had two winners and a second from three runners today so are 3/4 from their last 4 runners…
The season before last he was very impressive in winning the Kauto with the likes of Native River behind…
Last year when the yard were clearly not right is the only blip at Kempton…
Think there’s some confidence from the yard too…I make him a major player in this…
Is that relevant in this sort of race? There hardly a grade 1 stable, whats there % of grade 1 winners in those 4 previous seasons for december?
It’s got to be relevant hasn’t it? The horse itself is a two time grade 1 winner.. it highlights that the stable was badly out of form last year in a month they generally do really well in.
It offers an excuse for a below par effort in this last year…if his stats were similar to the previous 4 seasons there would be no reason to doubt he gave his true running.
Cant remember it word for word, but has essentially said he is a long, long way behind Might Bite.
If you dont fancy Might Bite, then you cant really fancy Whisper. only really if you think Might Bite is the next coming, could you feel confident about E/W money on Whisper.
All according to Hendo’s comments of course…
Whisper is far more a stayer than his stable companion, am sure Might Bite is going much the better of the pair on the gallops… And Might Bite has finished in front of Whisper on the track too; obvious who has the best chance… And that’s all Henderson is going on. So yes – stands to reason Henderson is much more hopeful for Might Bite. But he doesn’t look at the race from the point of view of a punter wanting to back at a value price.
What do you mean by “fancy”, Tommy?
Might Bite is currently 6/4, for Might Bite to be thought value @ 6/4 a punter needs to believe it has a better than 40% chance of winning.
Whisper is currently 9/1, for Whisper to be thought value @ 9/1 a punter needs only to believe it has a better than 10% chance of winning.
It is perfectly possible to believe Might Bite has a much better chance than Whisper and yet also believe Whisper is a value bet and not Might Bite. ie I believe Might Bite has currently got around a 36% chance (fair odds 7/4) so is imo poor value @ 6/4. I believe Whisper has around a 13% chance (fair odds 13/2) so is imo value @ 9/1.Value Is EverythingRUK just announced that Disko now a non-runner, could now go to Leopardstown probably because Gigginstown think they probably don’t have enough runners in the Christmas Chase
Punters shunted yet again by the vague headlines. The Racing Post reported thus, earlier in the week:-
Disko King George bid likely as Gigginstown team starts to take shapeJust a waste of time believing anything these days.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Tea For Two has been beaten 41 lengths and 67 lengths on his last two starts. His tongue was hanging at his hooves last time out. I’ll pass on him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s got to be relevant hasn’t it? The horse itself is a two time grade 1 winner.
So is Outlander. His last G1 win was two starts ago, on a flat right handed track. Finished 3rd in the Haydock bog, in front of T4T.
Available at 50s if you want it.
Cant remember it word for word, but has essentially said he is a long, long way behind Might Bite.
If you dont fancy Might Bite, then you cant really fancy Whisper. only really if you think Might Bite is the next coming, could you feel confident about E/W money on Whisper.
All according to Hendo’s comments of course…
Whisper is far more a stayer than his stable companion, am sure Might Bite is going much the better of the pair on the gallops… And Might Bite has finished in front of Whisper on the track too; obvious who has the best chance… And that’s all Henderson is going on. So yes – stands to reason Henderson is much more hopeful for Might Bite. But he doesn’t look at the race from the point of view of a punter wanting to back at a value price.
What do you mean by “fancy”, Tommy?
Might Bite is currently 6/4, for Might Bite to be thought value @ 6/4 a punter needs to believe it has a better than 40% chance of winning.
Whisper is currently 9/1, for Whisper to be thought value @ 9/1 a punter needs only to believe it has a better than 10% chance of winning.
It is perfectly possible to believe Might Bite has a much better chance than Whisper and yet also believe Whisper is a value bet and not Might Bite. ie I believe Might Bite has currently got around a 36% chance (fair odds 7/4) so is imo poor value @ 6/4. I believe Whisper has around a 13% chance (fair odds 13/2) so is imo value @ 9/1.I am saying if you dont think Might Bite will win, then you have no chance with Whisper (according to hendo’s comments). Im not talking anything about value
You honestly give Whisper a 13% chance of winning? I wouldnt back him with stolen money.
To be fair on the Disko saga, they only said: IF any of the Gigginstown horses come over, he’d be the one. It was the RP’s headline that was misleading.
I’m holding fire until the ground becomes clear. I think Might Bite is the best chaser in training right now but he is unproven on soupy ground. I feel like Whisper is likely to be a big part of my portfolio on the race. Each-way if good to soft or better, 75/25 win/place ratio if soft or heavy.
It’s got to be relevant hasn’t it? The horse itself is a two time grade 1 winner.. it highlights that the stable was badly out of form last year in a month they generally do really well in.
It offers an excuse for a below par effort in this last year…if his stats were similar to the previous 4 seasons there would be no reason to doubt he gave his true running.
Yes it may be relevant in saying the stable is in form in december, but is it relevant in taking a price about tea for two, does this form in december give any indication that tea for two will find ATLEAST 11lbs of improvement because the stables in form? Everyones entitled to back who they want and if i see any of there other entries about in lesser grades id be interested, but your not just talking about the stable running to form, your talking about him finding massive improvement at the top end, after a very very hard race LTO
Yeah, ham…
I think stable form can be a huge factor and if you compare when a stable is bang out of form (0/21) in a month which is usually their best month to when they are sending out 5 or 6 winners at 25%+ you can easily see a horse running 10lbs better..
I’ll agree that he had a very hard race last time but vibes from the yard are good with Nick Williams saying he’d be disappointed if he didn’t go very close to winning it, so with that confidence I’m happy the horse is well enough in himself to run up to his best.
He’s rated 164 and we know there is no question marks on the ground and he loves Kempton…with the yards horses seemingly well i can see him running right up to his best and maybe a few lbs better so that puts him right up there for me.
Might Bite could be anything but don’t think he’s as home and hosed as some think…
BDM has to prove that he can run up to his mark away from Haydock and really testing ground.
Will Whisper run up to 169 going right handed?
Is Thistlecrack over his injury and sickening defeat to Many Clouds?
Is Fox Norton a mid to late 160’s horse over 3 miles when he’s never been over two and a half?
I reckon there’s plenty of question marks over the whole field so I’m happy to play a 25/1 shot who goes very well at Kempton and has winning form at this time of year..
On a separate note I see Davy Russell has been ruled out of riding Whisper and has been replaced by Aidan Coleman!
Russell apparently promised a long time owner 6 months ago he would ride their horse in Ireland and is honouring that promise..
ScumBets have apparently just paid out on Might Bite to win this
Should have their licence revoked for what they done to the big keeper the other year
Blackbeard to conquer the World
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.