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Reading O’Brien’s comments on Thoroughbred Daily News it seems all about Kew Gardens from his team.
He reiterated that the colt loves fast ground and he feels that Kew Gardens is progressive. The trainer said that the jockey took his time on Kew Gardens in France last time and reported that Ryan had said he rode like a good horse that day.
Still a bit of a mystery that Kew Gardens managed to get beaten at odds-on in the Lingfield Derby trial but now sits there a Group 1 winner with a chance of doubling up.
I went with Kew Gardens here at 6/1 because I don’t think the Stoute pair should be three times shorter. If you couple the Stoute two at 2/1 each, it makes the bet 1/2 that one of them wins and I’d rather take 6/1 to a smaller stake as an interest.
Coronet was reported in good form for this assignment and her form seems better this season than last. I generally regarded her as a filly better with a stamina test and it may be that the pace the Ballydoyle boys set for Kew Gardens will help Coronet to get a good gallop to aim at. The Gosden team went through a very quiet spell lately and although bumping the average up a bit over the past week, they still sit behind their annual average at the moment.
Kew Gardens at 6/1 is the value for me. I make him 4/1 getting 11 lbs in what looks likely to be a strongly run affair.
1.Kew Gardens
2.Crystal Ocean
3.CoronetThe stats are against Poet’s Word on age, with no 5 year old winner since Daylami in 1999.
Good luck players.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The stats are against Poet’s Word on age, with no 5 year old winner since Daylami in 1999.
Not many five year olds since Daylami had the form, ground, trip and temperament to have a good chance of winning. Even fewer were still improving.
Poets Word imo has all the above, along with his 4 year old stable companion.Suspect 5 year olds have been severely outnumbered in every race this century. eg. Even with this year’s 5 day decs Poets Word is the only 5 year old.
All of which suggests the 5 year old stat – although interesting in itself – is not all that it may seem.
Value Is EverythingIt’s hard to get away from Crystal Ocean and Poet’s Word, and if I had been a bit smarter I
might have taken something a while back, but they are just too skinny for me now when I’m
having bother splitting the two. I’ve trawled through to find a bit of value, to at least fill
a place, and if it were softer I’d be all over Bateel like a rash. She would have had 5 on
the bounce, but for going down to Hydrangea in the Group 1 Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
at Ascot last backend. She had Hydrangea 2 lengths in front and Coronet 1 3/4L behind. She
was giving both 6lbs at Ascot but meets them on level terms here. Coronet is generally 10/1,
8/1 in a place, so it’s hard to get my head around Bateel being 50/1 with Paddy Power.
Obviously the ground is the thing, she likes it soft but she has won well enough on good ground,
as she did last time out in the Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud. I’ve been on weather watch the last
few days wondering if she will travel, its G/F at the moment, but there is rain forecast from 9PM
on Thursday, right up until 1am on Saturday morning. It’s certainly not enough to make it anywhere
near soft, but I think it will take the sting out of the ground and I wouldn’t be surprised if by
Saturday it was genuinely good. If it is, I can see her taking her place. If Francis-Henri Graffard
doesn’t fancy it, my money will be sunk in about 8 hours when the declarations are out. It’s very
chancy, but should she be still there later in the morning, there’s no chance she will be anywhere
near 50s. At those odds I’ll take the chance.Cracksman hates epsom, lets run him at epsom
Cracksman better with cut, lets run him
On firmCracksman will be aimed at an autumn campaign, youll see a different horse, lets run him after one of the hottest weeks in a generation in july… lol ….
Eight left
🏇 Cracksman
🏇 Crystal Ocean
🏇 Desert Encounter
🏇 Poet’s Word
🏇 Salouen
🏇 Coronet
🏇 Hydrangea
🏇 RosropovichGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Yes Botchy.
I see O’Brien is down to two runners and Moore still picks the wrong one…..
Apparently Gosden is waiting for thunderstorms so so is still an unlikely runner unless the owner gets his way.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I see O’Brien is down to two runners and Moore still picks the wrong one
I think they have got the prices the wrong way round as well. Might try an EW bet on the exchanges, as you get paid for third still if one is a NR.
Cracksman left in only because of the possibility of torrential rain, ham.
Value Is EverythingBefore jockey bookings I wouldn’t have had anything between Ballydoyle inmates.
Hydrangea may not be in form and may be best with give underfoot (and an alkaline soil too), but at that best isn’t far behind the likes of Crystal Ocean and Poets Word. Fact Ryan has apparently gone for her imo a positive in her prospects of returning to form too.
Rostropovich may be in form and progressive, but that form is currently some way below that of the favourites. Fact Hydrangea hasn’t got an obvious chance of winning and Ryan has gone for her – in turn imo a negative towards Rostropovich’s chance. Presunably connections can’t think he’s improved enough in the interim to be up to winning here.
In this instance jockey bookings may be important. Bookies imo have probably got their respective prices correct.
Given going concerns and recent form, in a match between the two stablemates I’d say chances are Rostropovich will finish in front of Hydrangea. However, given the filly’s best form is stronger if returning to form would imo have a better chance of beating the Stoute duo… It should be chance of winning that influences a jockey’s decision on who to ride, not which stablemate is likely to finish in front of the other stablemate.
Value Is EverythingI still don’t think the ground was the issue for Cracksman at Ascot but it was more down to his lackadaisical attitude prior to/going down to the start/walking behind the stalls/during the race and to me that was a clear indication that his mind was not on doing his job rather than a dislike for the ground.
Yes I won’t argue that his best performances have all come with dig in the ground but if he had trailed in 4th or 5th beaten by a double digit margin having continuously been changing his lead leg and/or hanging then yes you could then make the case he was hating the ground but he finished 8L clear of the 3rd despite being off the on and off the bridle from the word go.
In a strange way the race showed what a huge talent he really is (if they can get it properly harnessed in the right direction) as he had every right at pretty much all stages of that race to say ‘sod this for a laugh’ but he kept on even though he clearly wasn’t on his ‘A’ game at any stage.
If I was them I would run him regardless of whether the predicted thunderstorms show up or not (Gosden noted when interviewed before the July Cup that he had worked extremely well that morning) and it may be that they have sorted out whatever issue he had at Ascot – if he does run, needless to say all the prelims before the stalls open will be a major indicator as to what Cracksman has actually turned up.
Without him in the race it has a decidedly average feel about it, so fingers crossed he runs.
Can it have an average feel about it when the horse who hammered him (cracksman) is running again…?
How much rain ginge? To go from where it is now, to “autumn ground” would require alot no? AO probably wants him to run and will find anyway for that to happen..
I agree with you LD, reason for Cracksman’s below par performances may easily be temperament (more likely too imo) instead of ground conditions. Saw a you-tube shot of the horse in the Ascot prelims – coltish! Could also be time of year, didn’t really come to himself until the Voltigeur in August last year – although it’s true that Derby and Irish Derby were to that point his best performances – so can’t be certain. Trouble is connections believe it was the ground and therefore unlikely to run unless rain.
Value Is EverythingThat’s the problem, ham. Could be torrential and last ages, could be nothing.
Value Is Everything
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