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King George Analysis

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  • #34435
    Aidan
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    • Total Posts 1198

    I can see both sides of the arguement.

    Picking up on a few things Galejade said….you undermine WOA’s form by stating Watson Lake is a 157 yet describe KS’s defeat of the likes of L’Ami (roughly a 160 horse who was running on his seasonal debut) as something in altogether a different league? McCoy himself after the race described L’Ami as just a high class handicaper. KS then went on to beat Voy Por Ustedes who for my money was a bit disappointing today, won well in the end but it was hard work for him to shake off the likes of Oneway until after the last.

    Yesterday KS beat up another field but again beat ED another handicapper who himself uprooted the second last fence. On good ground I would be disappointed if WOA could not give ED a similar thrashing on good ground….of course the fly in the ointment is In Compliance. Love this time of year, all about opinions.

    #34436
    johnjdonoghue
    Member
    • Total Posts 994

    Galejade,

    When exactly was WoA referred to as a superstar? I certainly didn’t, I merely voiced my opinion he is the best staying chaser on the go. I’m not one who uses ratings for determining how good a horse is, I do believe there is a lot open to interpretation.

    JohnJ.

    #34437
    Avatar photoempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    Ignore BoS’ Cheltenham forays   and you have a horse that overall is of the same ability as War  of Attrition

    He beats the Watson Lakes, Hedgehunter, Lami’s etc

    <br>Would anyone fancy BoS turning tables on KS in any race?

    <br>People are rating WoA on one GC win and a substardard one at that

    #34438
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    Speaking of War Of Attrition think he faces a massive test tomorrow against BOS. Ground looked dire today and more rain forecast.

    #34439
    Galejade
    Member
    • Total Posts 185

    JJD,

    I believe it was Trackside but I stand corrected.  

    As I have indicated I do not think Kauto’s last 2 runs compare with his Haydock or Aintree performance  and as it happens Timeform agree rating his 4 wins this year

    King george    172<br>Tingle              169<br>Haydock          176<br>Aintree            178

    These are their bare bones rating ( taking no account of ease of win ) and they continue to rate Kauto Star 184 which they comment makes him the best since Desert orchid rated 187 and 10 lbs better than Old Vic (174)  with WOA on 171 ( best bare bones rating 169.)

    Aidan,

    L’ami is rated 3lbs better than Watsons Lake and KS beat him 18 lengths with his head in his chest whilst WOA beat him 10 lengths in the Gold Cup. I agree with you that ratings are not everything but it is the manner of KS’s wins which make him  both so exciting (but at the same time so chancy)

    I stick by my opinion that he is the best for 20 years and am delighted to be supported in that by Timeform and the Racing Post – unfortunately that doen’t necessarily mean that he will win the Gold Cup because we are all waiting with bated breath to see whether he will fall or damage every fence!

    I cannot remember looking forward to a race so much for a long time as I do this years Gold Cup unless it be my other rash prediction that Detroit City will do a Persian War and blitz the Champion Hurdle field!!

    We are indeed very lucky with the exciting horses we have around at the moment which surpass mere betting opportunities and introduce some real excitement.

    #34440
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    beat him 18 lengths with his head in his chest whilst WOA beat him 10 lengths in the Gold Cup.

    I follow ratings as much as anyone and certainly think they are the starting point at which to measure a horse but common sense and other factors come into play. I find it hard to believe that L’Ami ran the very same race in both. The Haydock race was his seasonal debut in soft ground, slow pace (relative to the Gold Cup), 2 furlongs less and just 6 runners where as the Gold Cup was good fast ground, 2 furlongs further, end to end gallop and 22 runners. Different race, difference conditions impossible to draw a comparison in the same way BOS thrashed WOA in the Lexus only to be stuffed out of sight in the Gold Cup.

    (Edited by Aidan at 6:24 pm on Dec. 27, 2006)

    #34441
    Avatar photoempty wallet
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    I would be disappointed if WOA could not give ED a similar thrashing on good ground

    I’d be surprised if WoA could thrash Exotic Dancer and i think you down playing his performance in the KG,  improving with every run this term and still only 6 years  old – lots more to come imo

    #34442
    The Market Man
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    • Total Posts 396

    It doesn’t matter what any horse does there will always be someone to find a flaw or knock his achievements in some way.

    As I see it the Kauto Star thing is quite simple – He is the best chaser since Desert Orchid ability wise and if his jumping holds up and he stays he’ll destroy War Of Attrition in the Gold Cup Kauto Star is a completely different league on another level altogether.

    Now I don’t expect everybody to just merrily go along with that but provided he does jump round and stay don’t say I didn’t tell you so when Kauto wins the Gold Cup easily. ;)

    Of course if / when he does someone will find a way of undervaluing the performance.

    #34443
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    Improving yes, but he is around a 160 horse I would have though particularly at 3 miles as I am not sure he saw it out well (connections aiming him at shorter trips from here on in).

    WOA has hit 164+ (RPR) 6 times including 3 times over 170….he has near 10lbs in hand of ED on last years form. I personally think his runs on soft/heavy ground this year point him to being even better again this year and expect him to show it when he gets him ground. Weither thats good enough to beat KS remains to be seen but like I said ED would have plenty to find with WOA who himself is only turning 8 and should be at the peak of his powers this year and next.

    #34444
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    He is the best chaser since Desert Orchid ability wise and if his jumping holds up and he stays he’ll destroy War Of Attrition in the Gold Cup Kauto Star is a completely different league on another level altogether.

    WOA hit 173 last year in the Gold Cup with some ease and looks a better horse again this year given that his performances on soft/heavy ground have been better this year than last. If Kauto Star does indeed destroy him…or is indeed on another level….what sort of rating do you think he could hit? Moscow Flyer hit 181….whats Kauto Star capable of in your opinion…..190?<br>

    #34445
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    Of course if / when he does someone will find a way of undervaluing the performance.

    And if WOA, In Compliance or some other horse beats him fairly what rating will they get and will you admit it!! :biggrin: ;)

    #34446
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    Just reading the ratings the RPR have given the race….Exotic Dancer goes up to 169…much to high for my liking. That would have gotten him third place in last years Gold Cup and he would have beaten both In Compliance and War Of Attrition last day in the Durkan Chase. No way.

    #34447
    johnjdonoghue
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    • Total Posts 994

    Quote: from The Market Man on 6:35 pm on Dec. 27, 2006[br]It doesn’t matter what any horse does there will always be someone to find a flaw or knock his achievements in some way.

    As I see it the Kauto Star thing is quite simple – He is the best chaser since Desert Orchid ability wise and if his jumping holds up and he stays he’ll destroy War Of Attrition in the Gold Cup Kauto Star is a completely different league on another level altogether.

    Now I don’t expect everybody to just merrily go along with that but provided he does jump round and stay don’t say I didn’t tell you so when Kauto wins the Gold Cup easily. ;)

    Of course if / when he does someone will find a way of undervaluing the performance. <br>

    Market Man,

    I won’t.

    JohnJ.

    #34448
    Avatar photoempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    WOA has hit 164+ (RPR) 6 times including 3 times over

    <br>Aye, and ED  is 160+ so thats 4 lengths and not a thrashing and still improving as his two hcp wins and KG show

    If you want use the GC 173 as the race to rate ALL  horses around then fair enough, i prefer to look at the  bigger picture thb and i think you may find ED will  be in with the big boys from now on

    as for the drop back, where else are connections gonna go?

    They know they’re not going to turn tables on KS over 3 miles etc, so logic is to drop back and take other prizes with your young, improving Chaser

    (Edited by empty wallet at 6:56 pm on Dec. 27, 2006)

    #34449
    The Market Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 396

    Kauto Star is easily capable of 185 IMO. The King George wasn’t his best performance and he still won easily. He’s already run to 176 at Haydock and he couldn’t possibly have won easier.

    War Of Attirition isn’t even a good Gold Cup winner. Do you seriously think Kauto Star isn’t capable of beating Hedgehunter by a couple of lengths?

    All things equal and suitable and War Of Attrition won’t see which way Kauto Star goes.

    That’s my opinion and I don’t have the slightest doubt about it.

    #34450
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    WOA has hit 164+ (RPR) 6 times including 3 times over <br>Aye, and ED  is 160+ so thats 4 lengths and not a thrashing and still improving as his two hcp wins and KG show

    You fail to add my extra line after that 3 of thoses 164+ performances were 170 plus…thats more than 4 lenghts!

    All academic now, RPR have Exotic Dancer at 169. Considering ED took the second last fence by the roots its fair to assume the RPR think he is a 170+ horse….my arse!

    #34451
    Avatar photoRacing Daily
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    • Total Posts 1416

    What did Exotic Dancer do in the KG?  Beat Racing Demon just over a length.  Would you rate Racing Demon at 169?<br>I wouldn’t.  Racing Demon is around the 160 mark, which makes ED around 162.  Hardly 170+ LOL

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