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Quote: from Racing Daily on 7:12 pm on Dec. 27, 2006[br]What did Exotic Dancer do in the KG?  Beat Racing Demon just over a length.  Would you rate Racing Demon at 169?<br>I wouldn’t.  Racing Demon is around the 160 mark, which makes ED around 162.  Hardly 170+ LOL
<br>Both horses were tackling three miles for the first time though so its not quite as straight forward as adding a pound or two to Exotic Dancer’s rating.
You have to take a view of whether or not you think either horse / both horses have improved for the step up in trip. Racing Demon has looked like a horse that would appreciate an easy three miles and Exotic Dancer has finished second in a Grade 1 whereas before he’d only been winning handicaps so I think it’s prefectly plausible to take a view that both horses have improved for the extra distance if you care to take that view.
(Edited by The Market Man at 7:20 pm on Dec. 27, 2006)
I do think that ED has improved on past performances. I still couldn’t have him any higher than 162. It is true that he could improve to bely a mark of 170, but i’d be rather sceptical of such a rating.<br>If we say that KS didn’t run as well as he did at Hay and Ain, I think that you could rate KS’s run at a fair 170, alongside the Tingle Creek performance. This would make the 162 for ED look reasonable.
Quote: from Racing Daily on 7:29 pm on Dec. 27, 2006[br]I do think that ED has improved on past performances.  I still couldn’t have him any higher than 162.  It is true that he could improve to bely a mark of 170, but i’d be rather sceptical of such a rating.<br>If we say that KS didn’t run as well as he did at Hay and Ain, I think that you could rate KS’s run at a fair 170, alongside the Tingle Creek performance.  This would make the 162 for ED look reasonable.
I wouldn’t entirely disagree with that theory although I haven’t yet analysed the race so I don’t know what mark I have any of them running to. I don’t think a sharp track like Kempton is really up Kauto’s street I think he’s much better on a more gallopping track. I know he’s run well at Kempton and Aintree but lets face it he’s good enough that he’ll run well anywhere.
(Edited by The Market Man at 7:34 pm on Dec. 27, 2006)
If you take the view, last fence blunders cost first two 3/4 lengths and Racing Demon, Exotic Dancer improved for step up, it puts RD around  165, ED at around 170+ and KS at around 178+
I’m of the opinion RD didn’t quite get home in this, but ran more or less to form (maybe a couple of pounds below) and i’m not adding ow’t on for last blunders
160+ ED seems about right to me, hopefully he can go on and prove it,  but i think he’s capable of 170+
(Edited by empty wallet at 7:40 pm on Dec. 27, 2006)
I don’t think a sharp track like Kempton is really up Kauto’s street
Tend to agree with that. His power is his motor which was clearly seen to great effect at Haydock and should be at the business end of that long cheltenham run in
If expectations are that KS should have beaten (the probably improving) ED by more than eight lengths, then at either of those two tracks he probably would have done. The margin is good enough (the KGV isnt if i remeber, usually won by more)not to have any concerns about that aspect of the perfomance
The jumping errors at end of races seems to perhaps be as much a concentration issue as technique. Something his excellent team will be well capable of working on
Persoanlly i think WOA is no more than a fair GC winner. The one horse that i feel would have threatened him was a fit Kicking king
Good job Kauto Star is a gelding with those fencing errors in the latter stages because I dare say his undercarriage and stomach must have gained a few cuts.
The performance of Kauto Star this season has been incredible.
He beat the Queen Mother Champion Chase favourite, Voy Por Ustedes over two-miles at Sandown Park and simply hammered Beef Or Salmon over three-miles at Haydock Park.
Ultimately he looked more visually impressive at earlier stages in the campaign however the horses which offered genuine 2006 form finished within reasonable distance to suggest he holds superiority over anything amongst the chasing crop.
Exoctic Dancer has lifted both Paddy Power and Boylesport Gold Cups, it would be safe to assume you can disregard his Carlisle blip. This ensures his beaten a combined 26 horses rated within the band range 124 – 154
I can’t see a genuine horse to get within any meaningful margin of Kauto Star at Cheltenham. If Kauto Star had been in War Of Attrition’s plates last year in March – would he have been able to get the better of Hedgehunter, L’Ami, Take The Stand and co>>> One would hope so
If P.Nicholls can produce Kauto Star to Cheltenham in top condition, declared with Ruby Walsh and his usual tongue strap – which horse will lower his colours?
I think the handicapper felt like he had to give Kauto Star a higher rating that he deserved on Saturday because he is the "buzz" horse (rightly so) right now. To do this he had to give ED a mucher higher rating. We have seen it happen before….crazy rating for a horse like ED.
Exotic Dancer’s run is only 3lbs below Florida Pearl beating Best Mate in the King George. Only 5lbs below Teeton Mills destruction of his King George field etc etc Come on!
KING GEORGE WINNERS’ RPRs <br>year – horse – RPR <br>2006 Kauto Star 178 <br>2005 Kicking King 170 <br>2004 Kicking King 177 <br>2003 Edredon Bleu 170 <br>2002 Best Mate 173 <br>2001 Florida Pearl 172 <br>2000 First Gold 178 <br>1999 See More Business 176 <br>1998 Teeton Mill 174 <br>1997 See More Business 168
(Edited by Aidan at 8:12 pm on Dec. 27, 2006)
Aidan
It don’t add up m8, through the Peterborough form,
My interpretation is, RP is saying RD improved and Monkerhostin ran same as LTO, when the distance between the two obviously shows Monkerhostin ran 10/11 lengths below his Peterborough run and to tie that in, is his distance to Puntal, a 134 rated horse
Puntal 134 , Monkerhostin + 9 Lengths =143, RD + 20 = 163, ED +2 = 165, KS + 8 =173
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Figures will tell you what you want them to tell you, and manipulating them into such a form is not too difficult if you’re determined enough.
Let’s all just be honest; there are people here who are not going to be satisfied until Ruby jumps off Kauto after the last at Cheltenham, hands him a violin and some sheet music and proceeds to lead him through a moving rendition of Johann-Sabastien Bach’s Toccata and Fugue.
Why don’t we just leave it to the horse – after all, I’m sure he couldn’t give a monkey’s how ‘promising’ some people still think he is.
Puntal 134 , Monkerhostin + 9 Lengths =143, RD + 20 = 163, ED +2 = 165, KS + 8 =173
Puntal, Monkerhostin give up the ghost and it reduces ratings of those in shake up by X amount
KS 168+, ED 160+, RD 158 (run to form?)
Add on blunder lengths 172/164/ 158
My thinking anyways
(Edited by empty wallet at 8:43 pm on Dec. 27, 2006)
LGR
If it was’nt for people querying performances/ratings etc there would be no point to TRF imo
Discussion, opinions are all valid, we just have to wait to see who is correct
(Edited by empty wallet at 9:14 pm on Dec. 27, 2006)
Let’s just hope both Kauto Star and War Of Attrition avoid injury between now and the Gold Cup so that this debate can be settled!
<br>I don’t bother with my own ratings but I certainly find it very interesting to compare and contrast horses by looking at ratings others have compiled.
I certainly think that Exotic Dancer is a bit high as for me he was ridden for a place rather like Truckers Tavern in BM’s second GC and this brought him a lot closer to KS than he really is ability-wise.
Last season’s GC was a poor one and I have WoA down as an average winner on what we’ve seen of him so far. As I’ve said before, I don’t agree with the campaign that WoA has been given this season and I really hope that he emerges unscathed after the Lexus as surely the KG would have been a better option. Mouse doesn’t want to travel him but slogging round in bottomless ground yet again will hardly help the horse! On that ground I fancy The Listener – 7-1 looks tasty….
If KS & WoA both get to the GC 100%, jump round & KS stays, I firmly believe that KS will put the current champ in his place. I definitely won’t be taking 2-1 though until GC day itself and even then I’ll probably steer clear as much as I want him to succeed.
Above all else, I take my hat off to connections for campaigning KS so boldly. Amazing to think that if he had won last season’s Queen Mother, he wouldn’t have even run in the Old Roan or Betfair Chase and we probably wouldn’t even be talking about KS for the GC even he had still run in the KG!
Quote: from empty wallet on 8:31 pm on Dec. 27, 2006[br]
My interpretation is, RP is saying RD improved and Monkerhostin ran same as LTO, when the distance between the two obviously shows Monkerhostin ran 10/11 lengths below his Peterborough run and to tie that in, is his distance to Puntal, a 134 rated horse
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<br>Apologies to RPR, my interpretation was wrong (should have looked first ) they have RD running to Peterborough form +1lb and Monkerhoskin running to 11lb below that on their ratings, which is fair enough
<br>Personally, i can’t have RD that high, decent Grade 2 horse, but 165 + is TOP Class imo and RD ain’t top class yet
I’d be wary of the Peterborough form too, as the next 2 home were FTO, all well beaten since.
TTT ran with credit next time under top weight, but he was beaten over ten length by KG second,
ED would have had 3/4 more lengths on RD if not clouting last and if you believe RD 166/7, that would make ED running to 170/2 and i can’t have that at the mo either
<br>Edited:<br>Time to stop talking to yerself empty :o
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(Edited by empty wallet at 1:10 am on Dec. 28, 2006)
Yesterday KS beat up another field but again beat ED another handicapper who himself uprooted the second last fence. On good ground I would be disappointed if WOA could not give ED a similar thrashing on good ground
So why is WOA flogging it round leopardstown for a probable sapping defeat in the customary heavy ground today?
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