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Those last 2 furlongs have never been Kauto’s best friend and the older he gets the less he likes them. The only way he can beat Long Run is if he skips clear at the top of the hill but sadly he doesn’t have that amazing acceleration any more. If the two go to the last together Long Run should and most probably will win. The Rat!!!!
Some poor excuses for Long Run’s latest defeat coming out of the woodwork. The horse couldn’t keep tabs on Kauto when the tempo was upped.
King Kauto has proven to be the better horse and he’s no stranger to Chelters. He stays very well and frankly, it’s going to be the horse that can go quickest for longest and that looks to be Kauto at the moment. He also jumps quicker and more efficiently.
So there is no reason why Kauto can’t beat LR for the same reasons he’s beaten him twice already this season.
Zip
Kauto’s time of 6.05 (GS) is on a par with his other winning King George runs. His King George times 2006-9 are: 6.06 (GS),6.09 (GS),5.57 (G),6.07 (GS).
So no sign of a decline in my view. However, I don’t think the Gold Cup is his best track or trip. And LR and possibly Grands Crus are worthy opponents.
Kauto’s time of 6.05 (GS) is on a par with his other winning King George runs. His King George times 2006-9 are: 6.06 (GS),6.09 (GS),5.57 (G),6.07 (GS).
So no sign of a decline in my view. However, I don’t think the Gold Cup is his best track or trip. And LR and possibly Grands Crus are worthy opponents.
I don’t agree with this (hmm – doing a lot of disagreeing on this thread!)
You can’t compare times year on year without looking at the times of all the races on the day, in my view. The going for any given day can only be an indicator – "good-to-soft", for example, can end up being quite a varied description!
If you make a year-on-year comparison between 2011, 2009 and 2008 (I’ve omitted 2010 because it was rescheduled, which affected the races that were run on the same day) this is what you get:
Race/ distance/ 2011/ 2009/ 2008
Novice hurdle/ 2m/ s8.8/ s15.6/ s5.7
Nov H’cap chase/ 2m4.5/ s9.0/ s14.8/ s7.4
Feltham/ 3m/ s4.2/ s17.4/ s9.5
Christmas Hurdle/ 2m/ s6.6/ s15.8/ s7.3
King George/ 3m/ s7.0/ s9.1/ f0.6
H’cap Hurdle/ 2m5/ s12.9/ s23.1/ s11.4
Times compared with standard – "s" = slow, "f" = fast
Sorry – don’t know how to paste it as a tableOn that basis, the KG this year was run in a very unspectacular time and in no way suggests that Kauto is as good as he was in his prime – frankly, it would be a miracle if he was!
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I don’t agree with this (hmm – doing a lot of disagreeing on this thread!)
With a moniker like yours, it won’t surprise anyone.
Tete, like you say ‘Times’ are critical analysis and bear testament to exactly what the state of the ground was on any given day.King Georges are generally run on Gd/Sft these days and Kauto star has clocked time figures consistent to what he should achieve for his age over the years. ‘Long Runs’ time figure is poor for this year and confirms to me that he was let down by his jockeys tactics,that is if the horse was 100% fit of course.What i will say is ‘Felthams’ are just not run at the same pace as a King George and as far as i can remember have never bettered The King George on the day timewise.
Trabolgan
was about the best in recent years and he went on to win the RSA.For this
Grand Crus
to have beaten Kauto on the clock only confirms to this judge that Ruby stole this years King George,this is backed up with the fact that
Bobs Worth
ran flat and yet would still have beaten Kauto had they been in the same race!
Like i’ve said before Ruby gave Sam a lesson in tactics on Boxing day,i hope he doesn’t fall for the same in the Gold Cup!I think the obvious conclusion is to back Grands Crus at 7/1 NRNB for the Gold Cup with Ladbrokes. Ladbrokes let me have £2 online but didn’t even bother with a phone call for £200 in a shop. He is 10/1 antepost with Hills but I think it’s about 50/50 he runs in the Gold Cup/RSA so the 7/1 is better value.
Thanks for providing the stats on Kempton. Clearly Kauto’s run doesn’t look so good in that light. However, it should be remembered that he was trained up for the Betfair Chase this year and the KG was opportunistic. So conceivably he might have gone a touch faster with optimal training.
And another thing… Nicholls said he didn’t train Master Minded any differently for this race than he did for 2 miles. Apparently it’s the same regime whatever the distance. This surprised me. However, on reflection it looks like trainers can’t do much more than a morning gallop with every horse. They can hardly be expected to jump a dozen fences each day. Makes you wonder what horses who are difficult to train, like Big Bucks do all day though. Do they have trouble getting up in the morning or maybe they just don’t like galloping unless they have to.
Hello there Hurdygurdyman…and a happy new year to you.
You said…
["You’re miles off the mark mate you really are.
If the Kauto Star of today met Kauto Star Boxing Day 2009 he wouldn’t have got within 15 lengths of him."]
I have to agree with you, Kauto was 11 at this King George, and 8 in 2009. Chasers are at their peak at 8 or 9 so I wouldn’t expect him to retain the ability he had then, although he is still an amazing racehorse.
That being the case, I cannot agree with your comments below
["Long Run is most likely at the peak of his powers right now and give me the impression he’s very unlikely to get much better despite his age. For him to become as good as Kauto Star was he’s going to have to improve round about 20lbs and that is a huge ask if not impossible."]
Long Run was 6 when he ran in this years King George, and he won it last year at 5. He also won the Gold Cup at 6. Kauto Star, amazing horse that he is, won his first King George at 6 and his first Gold Cup at 7. So there is no reason to doubt that Long Run will improve over the next couple of years. The last 6year old to win the Gold Cup was Mill House in 1963.
I have to repeat again, Kauto Star is my favourite horse of all time, he is amazing, but I am being honest when I say that I think Long Run is a better horse than Kauto at the moment. Yes, as you say, jumping is the name of the game, and Kauto did indeed whip his ass fair and square. But I would ask you to be honest about one thing, if Kauto Star had been ridden by Sam Waley Cohen and Long Run had been ridden by Ruby Walsh…..who do you think would have won the race?
My point is, I think Long Run is the best chaser in the country at present. I think he has the potential to win two or three further King George’s and Gold Cup’s. He is an amazing animal, with a non professional jockey riding him. A top notch professional jockey (ie Geraghty in this case) would iron out some of the problems that Long Run shows with his jumping, give him confidence, and simply get the best out of the horse.
I am not bashing Sam, he is a very good amateur, but don’t tell me it would make no difference to put a jockey of Geraghty’s caliber on Long Run. The sad thing is that with Long Run being owned by Sam’s dad, it is unlikely that it is going to happen. From my point of view, I think this does the horse a disservice.
Like I said before, if Long Run was not owned by Robert Waley Cohen, do you think there would be any chance whatsoever that Nicky Henderson would contemplate putting Sam on the horse ahead of Geraghty. The reason he wouldn’t, is that top jockeys improve horses and win big races. Long Run has already won a King George and Gold Cup with an amateur on his back, so what could he achieve by having a better jockey on him?…..I am afraid we might never find that out.
Hurdygurdyman
Why would you say that? I’m new to this forum, I certainly don’t want to fall out with anyone, and all I have done is give my honest opinion, which is no better than your honest opinion.
I love discussing horses, I think this is an excellent forum and I have enjoyed reading many of your and others posts on here.
That is just uncalled for.
BigG,
I think you’ve accused the wrong member on your last post.
As for your interpretation of the King George and your opinion Long Run is the better horse overall, fair enough. However, I do feel you (and some others) are looking for excuses and sounding a bit desperate with the reasoning.
Kauto appears the better horse to me, no question. I do think the Gold Cup distance and hill will favour Long Run more than Kauto, but it won’t hinder Kauto IMHO – why should it?
The bottom line is Kauto jumps better and has more pace and twice when he’s put the pressure on his adversary he couldn’t cope.
The more I think about it I reckon Kauto can regain the Gold Cup. He can hack for a circuit, increase the pace, jump LR into trouble and find more at the end if necessary
IF
the reigning champ throws it down after the last. perhaps Kauto has more in the tank than LR?
The fact Nicky Henderson is now saying that they may not put earplugs on LR as he’s getting too relaxed when racing is starting to sound desperate too!
Zip
I don’t understand why people are making excuses for Long Run. The fact is Kauto Star was the one who had excuses last season! He bled at Kempton yet still gave Long Run a race until the last couple, then was pulled up at Punchestown when something clearly was amiss. He’s back to his best yet everyone is still saying he’s past his best because Long Run has had excuses! Give me a break! It’s not one horse he has to beat, he slaughtered everything else in the field bar Long Run. I have backed Long Run both times this season against Kauto Star for the very reason that I thought he was past his best, we were all wrong, so give the horse some credit and may the best horse win the Gold Cup in March. It seems people who have backed Long Run are looking for excuses to get their money back on the Gold Cup. If you think Kauto Star won’t get up the hill, ask Denman if he can…I think Long Run is a great horse, but I will say it once again, when Kauto Star is right, and clearly he is this season, he is the one to beat and should be favourite purely on form alone this season. And as for Grand Crus, exciting novice as he is, if you think he will beat Kauto Star or Long Run for that matter at Cheltenham, even though his time may have been quicker on the day, then fair enough, it’s all about opinions, but in reality, it’s not gonna happen.
Getzippy…..many thanks for that, you are right, my response was indeed intended for thisthatandother, re the "BigG, your full of it"
Hurdygurdyman….my apologies for directing the last post at yourself, I mistakingly took it that it was a follow on from our previous posts.
Getzippy, you may well be right, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Kauto Star won the Gold Cup, he is incredible. I would be cheering for him, as I have at every Gold Cup for the past few years, if he did win.
It won’t surprise you to know that I do think that Long Run will win the Gold Cup whether or not SWC rides him, although I have made my feelings on the jockey positon pretty clear.I am so glad Kauto appears in such fine fettle, it adds spice to the Gold Cup. I would rather it was like that, than at the start of the season when, according to the bookies, it looked a one horse race.
Time will tell, but I will doff my cap if Kauto passes the line first.
JAMIEDB, you are of course right, the phrase "reports of my death are greatly exaggerated" would apply to kauto Star. Many, including myself, thought that Kauto’s best days were behind him. It’s hard to say he was as good as he ever was, but he can’t be far off it. I agree with your comments on Grands Crus, but I don’t think there is any chance of him going for the Gold Cup in any case, I think he will win the RSA Chase
Getzippy…thanks again for pointing out my misdirected post.
No probs, BigG. It’s good to talk to someone new and have a mass debate.
Maybe we should all just do a stonking reverse forecast on the two horses for the Gold Cup then we’ll ALL be winners!
Zip
Someone’s been having some fun while I was gone
People keep quoting Long Run’s age and saying he’s sure to improve but aren’t looking at the horse.
I have seen absolutely no signs of him improving and think we’ve seen the best of him.
Last years King George was a joke and the Gold Cup wasn’t much better. Fair play he took advantage of the lack of competition but we already knew he was a decent horse
Forget Denman and Kauto Star and he beat What a Friend 11 lengths in the Gold Cup.
This year he’s been beaten twice by an ageing Kauto Star so where’s the improvement since his King George win?
His fans were saying he needed the run at Haydock and he’d win the King George but as far as I can see considering the Haydock errors were far worse than his Kempton one’s and he’s not improved one bit.
Even if he wins the Gold Cup again I doubt if this time next year he’ll be getting his own way and a few will have improved past him.
I’ve been saying this about Long Run since after last year’s Gold Cup and so far he has won nothing this season. Better get his finger out
Like i’ve said before Ruby gave Sam a lesson in tactics on Boxing day,i hope he doesn’t fall for the same in the Gold Cup!
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