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I didn’t actually say that Aragorn. The point still holds that his Newbury run was the best piece of form by a hurdling debutant, certainly this season and probably for the last dew seasons. Given he was smart on the Flat, the Champion Hurdle looked a viable aim, should he have progressed from that on his second start. He didn’t so it no longer looks a viable option.
Fine, I was wrong – when I’m backing 100/1 shots, I often am.
Firstly, aragorn, I have talked Khyber Kim up all week and I fully expected him to win yesterday, not because of the significance of his entry, as after his debut run, it would have appeared the next logical step, but more because of the market support prior. Nevertheless I did say ealier in this thread that Khyber Kim would be too short and I would probably consider numide if he was there and was a decent price.
At that time I was expecting Khyber Kim to be about even money, not like 2-5 or whatever it went off at yesterday, I have never and will never back a horse at that sort of price, regardless of how much I like the horse, thats what Id expect on Arsenal to beat accrington stanley (you would never get such a price on that result on fixed betting, which is why I only do horses). If I see a horse that I really like at 2-5 then rather than backing it, I just dont take it on unless there is another which I like which yesterday there wasnt and so I just listened to the race, which I will also be doing today for the grey berrys run…
Furthermore, I have two horses in the supreme novice-khyber kim and captain cee bee, one in the arkle – Noland, none in the ballymore (through no lack of looking), three in the triumph – The grey berry and binocular (but the other one is only a little bet on prince erik), two in the r+sa Money Trix (and again a little bet on gold medallist), one in the world hurdle on afsoun (which is beaten already) and two in the national Butlers cabin (again a little bet on Nine du sivloa). That is hardly every horse at cheltenham, especially when I have never mentioned afsoun, gold medallist or nine du sivola, and because Butlers cabin is going to aintree.
Again I am not overly worried about khyber kims loss yesterday, it was a shock at the time but in hindsight when you look at the facts.
* He was sweating up before the off.
* He ran like he wasnt 100,%, looking tired as soon as any effort was called for.
* He looked to come back uninjured. (Henderson reported that he has come back in good nick)
All that points to a bug or infection. Id be hopeful that they can get him back in shape by cheltenham and I’d still rate him as the number one contender if he’s fit and well. Its very early to write the horse off because his debut performance looks rock solid to me, I dont agree that there is any egg on faces, other than that I thought he would piss his race yesterday and if hes 100% I still think he would, but if a horse sweats up and runs below par, I think its very foolish to write them off as a flash in the pan.
I also think theatre girl and chomba womba are very good horses and think both ran very well yesterday.
Bulwark, so you don’t think the ground at Doncaster and the pace of the race contributed to Khyber Kim being well beaten?
On its first run over hurdles at Newbury the ground was bottomless and the race was run in a predictably slow time. At Doncaster, the ground was clearly much quicker and the race was run at a much faster pace. Two of the more significant factors to determine a horses performance and in this case very significant.
I look forward to Khyber Kim back on soft ground in a race where stamina rather then speed will be important.
Wallace
Going back to Kyber Kim’s Flat form, I’d suggest that soft ground and a test of stamina are the last thing he wants. Do you think his requirements have changed dramatically (possibly feeling his injury on faster ground?) or could there be another reason for him failing to repeat the Newbury run?
I didn’t actually say that Aragorn. The point still holds that his Newbury run was the best piece of form by a hurdling debutant, certainly this season and probably for the last dew seasons.
I don’t think that point still holds, or ever held.
In order to rate KK at 143, the RP handicapper upped Theatre Girl from 120 to 136 after the Challow Hurdle. She was an 11/4 chance for that race, so was surely entitled to come at least second, so what did we learn from her that day that justified the 16lb hike? Given that a lot of horses wouldn’t have acted on the ground on Newbury that day, I think it’s time to say that the point which now holds, and the one which I have always adhered to, is that the race was significantly over-rated.
I was expecting the fastish ground (over the 2m trip) to be a much bigger problem for the winner Tazbar, than it should have been for Khyber Kim. On the flat, KK ran some nice races on good fast summer ground. The ground at Doncaster, should not have been a problem for KK, imo. I could understand him getting beat by Tazbar, but not by Osaka D’Airy & Whiteoak. At his best, he must be better than that. It suggests he wasn’t for whatever reason. Bug, slight injury, or also it was his second race back after a long lay off, & the first at Newbury was a gruelling one.
DJ, not all horses retain their preferences for going and distance. He won at Newbury in the style of a stayer on very soft ground that clearly he jumped well on. It is also conceivable for a horse than ran at around a mile-and-a-half on the flat to be a stayer over hurdles as it matures.
Welsh Wizard – An improvement of 16lbs on a hurdling debut is hardly unheard of and looked perfectly justified, I thought KKs debut was a stand out performance before I even saw the ratings. Wheras Theatre girl went up 16 (a rating which she looks to have held up yesterday), helens vision was dropped about ten and of the beaten horses to have run gain since- Ogee, Just a thought, Penn da benn, paktolos and Abstract Art all look to have upheld the form by showing general improvement since coming away from their defeats. The form overall for the debut looks pretty solid allround and I would say it is pretty much correct give or take a few lbs here or there.
I dont think the ground or the pace would have put KK at any sort of disadvantage yesterday as I think he would have been suited by both, if you watch a rerun of the race it is clear that he is just running empty when the tempo is raised and he finds nothing for fitzgerald.
I think colin little gives a pretty fair, logical and balanced outlook on the race, which I would agree with 100%.
I don’t think KK gave his running at Donny and the performance at Newbury was a good one.
Not sure about the ground issue – run was too bad for ground to be a reason.
Zip
davidjohnson and bulwark take issue with me for stating that KK disappointed on the Flat.
Fact – Ran 4 times at 3-y-o – beaten every time, SP’s 5/2, 3/1, 4/1 and 11/4 Fav.
Now add to that beaten at 2/5 Fav over jumps. Cheltenham? My ar5e.
That is the most ridiculous argument ever WW, Khyber Kim ran to his rating (and generally improved) on all but one occasion (which seen him off the track for a long spell), it doesnt matter if he got beat, or the prices on the day, he still ran consistently to the best of his form on all those occasions.
The fact that he was beaten and the prices he got beaten at are absolutely irrelevant in my view. To me, a horse only "disappoints" when he runs below his form.
If you say that a horse disappoints anytime they lose to a better horse on the day, despite running to their form, then I imagine you must regard a lot of horses as "disappointing", and would surely be easily disappointed.
Would you say that Our Vic was disappointing behind kauto star on boxing day for example? Or that Duke of Marmalade was diappointing behind Dylan Thomas in the Irish Champion.
Bulwark wrote:
That is the most ridiculous argument ever WW, Khyber Kim ran to his rating (and generally improved) on all but one occasion (which seen him off the track for a long spell), it doesnt matter if he got beat, or the prices on the day, he still ran consistently to the best of his form on all those occasions.The fact that he was beaten and the prices he got beaten at are absolutely irrelevant in my view. To me, a horse only "disappoints" when he runs below his form.
If you say that a horse disappoints anytime they lose to a better horse on the day, despite running to their form, then I imagine you must regard a lot of horses as "disappointing", and would surely be easily disappointed.
That’s the difference between being a punter, and a mere enthusiast. I need to find winners for my living, Bulwark, and I call a horse that gets beaten every time he runs in one season at odds of 4/1 or shorter a disappointment.
When I was at Timeform someone asked me why Challenger du Luc was labelled a rogue, with a squiggle, when he consistently ran to a mark in the mid-to-high 160’s – the answer was easy – because he never won and we were in the business of tipping winners.
I would be most disappointed if I went skint, even if everything I had backed had ran to form and not been beaten far.
As a punter, I’d have thought it was vital knowing the difference between a horse ‘disappointing’ and not winning.
Wonder if they’d be at all tempted by the Champion. He may not stand a great deal of racing and it looks an open year. Go on Nicky, you know you want to.
I didn’t actually say that Aragorn. The point still holds that his Newbury run was the best piece of form by a hurdling debutant, certainly this season and probably for the last dew seasons. Given he was smart on the Flat, the Champion Hurdle looked a viable aim, should he have progressed from that on his second start. He didn’t so it no longer looks a viable option.
Fine, I was wrong – when I’m backing 100/1 shots, I often am.
No chance of humility then……..
As a punter, I’d have thought it was vital knowing the difference between a horse ‘disappointing’ and not winning.
So, if you punted the same animal four times in a row, at odds between 11/4 and 4/1, and he didn’t won any of them, you wouldn’t be disappointed with him?
Either you punt in buttons or you don’t need to make it pay, dj.
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