- This topic has 49 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
Am really looking forward to seeing this horse run again on saturday, it has been very heavily backed this week ahead of its second hurdle run, as if 6s is soon going to be unavailable and a few firms already moving 11/2 on him.
As it stands he looks to be my banker bet for chelto, and am hoping he delivers in style on saturday.
Wonder if they’d be at all tempted by the Champion. He may not stand a great deal of racing and it looks an open year. Go on Nicky, you know you want to.
Id say it will depend how he goes on saturday, I had a little safety bet on him for the champ hurdle at 33s, just in case, on the day the champ entries were published, but he looks almost unbeatable in the supreme novice at present and they may just go for certain victory over a challenge.
On his flatform hes right up there with sublimity but was more lightly raced and was arguably much more consistent prior to his injury, which sent him hurdling, if he makes a satisfactory amount of progress on the debut run (say 10-15lbs), and the betting (which has been consistent as hell every few days since his last run, with a lot more coming in the last few days) and his champ entry suggests he has, then you would think he’d at least be up for a high 150s possibly 160 rating, which would put him well above supreme novice company and looking more toward the champ hurdle
I would be taking Khyber Kim on with Numide on saturday. On flat form Numide is at least as good and is a soft ground horse. Khyber Kim will hopefully get overbet.
Its funny you should say that Aragorn, I looked at the card earlier and thought the exact same thing, will see what prices are like though, and if numide runs or not. Khyber is my horse for chelto, but on saturday he’ll be shorter than I bet and Numide will be on conditions I reckon it will be best on (see thread on binocular). I’d be hoping for 10s or so though, with the form hes got to make up, but reckon he’s underrated on his last run.
Also, on a numide note, keep an eye out for MATUHI, the horse that numide beat last time, he was debuting completely unfancied against numide who is potentially very smart, and the second and third who were backed like they were going to win pre race that day. Watching the race I thought he ran a binder in second. Matuhi has 3 entries coming up, some in smart company and could do well at a price.
sorry, last thread should third and fourth (who were ten lengths clear of the field) obviously Matuhi was second. My bad
Champion could be a good wee speculative bet, two possible negatives though ground and Moore.
Actually, as I think of it, I think I may have phoned in a tenner on numide for supreme novice before his last race, will have to check that though. I’ll have to phone Ladbrokes and get a list of everything Ive backed antepost this month. Have been winning a clean fortune ever since khyber kim, which was a turning point on a bad christmas betting and have been betting with hangovers. Never clever but its been working thus far.
I am a value person and Khyber will be no value and Im hoping that he puts in a good run on saturday but I think he’ll be really short on saturday and I never back horses that short, especially if there is another horse I follow in the same race at a far bigger price. That is just the way I bet. If Numide wasnt e/w money against Khyber though I probably wouldnt touch him. Its all about value.
I like the "at least as good" as Khyber Kim bit – Numide was a group winner and up close in the French Derby – KK wont see which way he goes this weekend
Is it known whether Levantine reopposes?
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I too am on Kyber Kym for the Supreme (only 9/1) but thanks for pointing out the 89/1 for the Champion.
If Nicky has another that could run in the Supreme and Afsoun and Punjabi fail in their trials. It would be distinctly possible for a Champion bid.
Value Is EverythingIrish, I couldn’t be bothered to get into a debate about the relative merits but you are right, he was a better horse on the flat! If you watch his first hurdle race (On ATR), Moore has to hold onto him most of the way down the finishing straight… To me it was just as, if not more impressive than Khyber Kim’s win..
I’m looking forward to it anyway.. Looking forward to the weekends racing as a whole..
I definitely think numide had has more to show but dont think he was nearly as impressive on hurdling debut as khyber kim.
What worried me on numides debut was that he hails from a stable that regularly likes a gamble on their horses, and he would look to me (from his flat form) to be one of the smartest horses they have picked up in a while, yet he was a negative in the betting that day (ending up going off second fav to the very average looking planet of sound) when he really looked to be a head and shoulders above the rest on flat form. It did suggest to me however that he might not be doing much at home for them but he should still have won the race as it didnt look that strong on paper.
I had a little £20 win on numide at 7/4 in that race (not the tenner I thought I may have antepost, which seemed to have been more likely as I dont usually back favs). I thought he didnt look 100%, but then neither did khyber kim on debut and although I think numide’s performance was under rated that day, I thought it would have been about 120-125ish, but he never really looked in any danger of losing and its possible a challenge might have forced him to pull out a bit more.
Numide should handle testing ground better than KK on saturday and should really have more of a stamina reserve to help him on saturday aswell but I think he’ll face a stiff challenge against KK on saturday and I could only really back him at a price reflective of the improvement he needs to make, especially with KK being backed for Supreme like failure on saturday isnt even a consideration.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.