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Two major preps took place Saturday April 3, the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. The two races featured the two current favorites for the KY Derby and were quite different. The Wood Memorial was won by Eskendereya who had a clear trip and won easily by many lengths.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Iz-0cgWTYk
Looking at Lucky was very unlucky in the Santa Anita Derby with severe traffic troubles. More fireworks happened after the race with a fist fight between jockeys and Bob Baffert, Looking at Lucky’s trainer publicly criticizing jockey Garrett Gomez for “a horrendous ride”. To top it off, Bob Baffert’s wife, Jill when she saw Victor Espinoza in the paddock before a later race, went after Espinoza for nearly putting Gomez and Looking at Lucky through the rail in the SA Derby.
The race;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljiJuqaKeKA
The action after the race;
http://www.santaanita.com/press/pressre … w-race-see
If the odds act the way I think they will after these races, Looking at Lucky will be my KY Derby horse. I think LaL will like the additional distance more than either Eskendereya or Sidney’s Candy, despite what the connections of SC say.
Cheers JH. Great stuff. Watched the Wood Memorial last night and the favourite was impressive – even if, as the old boys say – all horses are fast going past trees.
Lots more twists and turns to come.
Have to be honest, I’m on Eskendereya at 33/1 (as per this photo below)and as can be expected I’m a little nervous now!
The pace will be perfect for Eskendereya. He pushes on off of any fractions and the pace figures to be hot this year. American Lion, Rule, Sidneys Candy (who I don’t believe for one second will last the trip at Churchill – he’s run slow fractions in both of his wins!), Jackson Bend to name a few will all be up there in the front.
The one worry I have for Esky? The draw. If he gets a wide draw or a rail draw (1-3) i’ll be concerned he wont be able to get his position. He needs to track the pace and have a little bit of space to manouever to strutt his stuff. If he gets anywhere between 4-10 then he wins…no question about it.
It’s somewhat ironic that this time last year Mr Zayat met with the DRF and gave an interview about how he had a brilliant 2yo in the making. The interview was conducted just after his Pioneerofthenile finished 2nd in last years’ renewal. I don’t think anyone couldve realised he’d be this good.
Here’s that proof of bet for all you guys that’ll call me an aftertimer
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v621/danmunn/esky.jpg
Halfway…..that horse could be bought by Coolmore because the Owners are in bankrupt.
Imagine if they had 2 Triple Crown winners in the same year….now thats a story
Jesus it hacked up last night…different class to the rest
Halfway…..that horse could be bought by Coolmore because the Owners are in bankrupt.
Imagine if they had 2 Triple Crown winners in the same year….now thats a story
Jesus it hacked up last night…different class to the rest
Too true Wallace. I think Zayat will sell before the Derby.
He’s already been ‘informed’ that if he doesn’t sell before the Derby and Eskendereya doesn’t win it’s value will drop dramatically.
I’ve been following American racing for a while now though and can honestly say that this is the first colt in years that has been impressive.
I’m more of a fillies and mares man
He looked very very very good. Like it was a shake of the reins and then it flew away from the rest under minimal pressure.
Yikes….i love to go to that race in 3 weeks
One thing I will say on the others, It’s great to see Joe Talamo have a live Derby chance in Sidneys Candy after his nightmare 11th hour scratch with I Want Revenge last year
halfwaytoheaven-33-1, wow. I would definitely be on Esky myself at those odds. As I stated, I am leaning towards LAL because I expect good odds and I have a small future bet on him as well as 2 or 3 others, but at nowhere near 33-1. More like 5-1 as LAL was one of the early favorites and I may get beter than that at post time. Eskendereya has the style for the KY Derby as it is a 20 horse field, at least two or three horses usually go for the lead and set suicide fractions and deep closers have a lot of traffic to get through so close-up stalkers usually do well. As you say, that depends on getting position on the first turn and not being 4 or 5 wide or getting bumped around in the middle of the pack. If Eskendereya is as good as he looked in the Wood, we might have the first triple crown winner in many years.
You have the ew backing your play but if you are really nervous and you have exacta betting, you can hedge by putting 4 or 5 horses on top and Eskendereya 2nd. Of course, if a Mine That Bird type longshot wins or Eskendereya finishes 3rd or worse, that might just be a good way to lose another 4 or 5 bets. Good Luck.
Those who are so high on Eskendereya should remember Bellamy Road from a few years back. He won the Wood by 17 lengths, was the favorite for the Derby, and ran abysmally. It’s preferable that a horse doesn’t go all-out in his last prep race.
Also, Todd Pletcher, Eskendereya’s trainer, is 0-for-24 in the Kentucky Derby. He seems to get horses fit for the early spring races, but they run out of steam by May.
I like Sidney’s Candy quite a bit, he’s won 3 graded stakes this year, a rarity nowadays for classic-bound 3yos. The only knock on him is that he has’t run on regular dirt.
Those who are so high on Eskendereya should remember Bellamy Road from a few years back. He won the Wood by 17 lengths, was the favorite for the Derby, and ran abysmally. It’s preferable that a horse doesn’t go all-out in his last prep race.
Also, Todd Pletcher, Eskendereya’s trainer, is 0-for-24 in the Kentucky Derby. He seems to get horses fit for the early spring races, but they run out of steam by May.
I like Sidney’s Candy quite a bit, he’s won 3 graded stakes this year, a rarity nowadays for classic-bound 3yos. The only knock on him is that he has’t run on regular dirt.
Miss W,
Surely you’re worried about the way Sidneys Candy has been lucky with pace in his last two starts? A stronger pace and he wouldve been caught by Interactif last time.
Pletcher’s Derby record is a worry but he’s never had a horse like Eskendereya on the lead up to the Derby. Some trends are great but his record is talent-based. If he hasnt had a horse good enough he wouldn’t win it
The pace could be an issue for Sid, but this year even the "speed" horses aren’t going that fast. There aren’t any big standouts, so it’s a matter of finding decent odds on a horse that I have confidence in. The Derby is probably the hardest race to handicap in the US, simply because it’s so different from every race these colts have been in. 20 horses, 10 furlongs, experience and jockey ability count a lot.
Update on Gomez vs. Espinoza after Santa Anita Derby
"According to other jockeys in the room after the race, Gomez went after Espinoza, and though they pushed and loud, unprintable words were exchanged, they were separated before any punches could be thrown. One rider, who asked not to be identified, was asked who won.
"The stewards," he cracked."
The Wood appeared to be run at a moderate clip and Eskendereya has rightly annihilated them for speed.
Sired by a miler and a half-brother to a Grade I turf sprinter, even Skybet’s generous 4/1 quote doesn’t fancy me.
American Lion, on the other hand, was super impressive when extending clear of the 6/5 fave in the Illinois Derby and hit the line strongly.
Gomez retains mount on Looking At Lucky. Gomez fined, Espinoza suspended by stewards.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_ … ntics.html
The Bill Dwyre columns not bad either as he has a few tongue in cheek suggestions on how to increase attendance at Santa Anita.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dwy … umn?page=1
Another version;
Does anyone give Dublin any chance?
I reckon he is crying out for a distance.
My family part owned a mare down here in Australia who was closely related to Dublin (she went off to the breeding barn recently), so I am looking forward to seeing how he goes.
Gee, I’ve just looked at Dublin’s pedigree.
His dam, Classy Mirage has a Conduit Mare Profile Index of 2.22 I must have looked at about a 1000 pedigrees over the past few months, and Classy Mirage has the the highest CMP I’ve come across. Admittedly, I haven’t looked at many American horses during that period, and most of them are Chasers or Stayers. I didn’t know that this measure went over 2! The highest that I usually come across are about 1.5-1.6
Just in case you’re wondering, this indicates SPEED, not stamina.
Just in case I come around to studying this race, could someone post which years the KD was run on an ‘off’ track, apart from last year.
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