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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Kempton SP's

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 35 total)
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  • #4955
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I am just doing my thing with the results from the weekend and the SP’s from Kempton seem to be really bad .. not just the usual jiggery-pokery but worse than that ..

    The 4:35 race had an overround of 111% between 4 runners.
    That’s an unbelieveable 2.75% per runner.

    The 5:40 had an overround of 136% between 13 runners.
    again 2.75% per runner.

    It doesn’t particularly affect me but this doesn’t bode well for the future, how can that sort of unfettered greed be justified.

    That’s the same margins as the FOTB’s. I think Kempton AW racing needs abandoned, for good, what a disgrace.

    #112837
    Wallace
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    Dave, the figures you present are disgusting. The similarities between FOBT’s, AW racing and cartoon racing are striking. Fixed margin betting products for the bookmakers.

    Any of the journalists on here prepared to start a campaign for the ordinary punter who bets at SP?

    #112847
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4811

    Always amazes me how quick people are to call for the head of Barney Curley for stiffing the punters when this type of piracy happens every day without almost a whisper.

    #112852
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Any of the journalists on here prepared to start a campaign for the ordinary punter who bets at SP?

    Cavelino Rampante

    Always amazes me how quick people are to call for the head of Barney Curley for stiffing the punters when this type of piracy happens every day without almost a whisper.

    Dream on, guys!
    Where’s the mileage in attacking the establishment? :shock:
    (Though Barney Curley does shed some light on the situation in his podcasts.) :)

    #112857
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Betting at SP is 99 per cent folly for serious players at any meeting, never mind Kempton. It is strictly for ‘amusement only’ punters, akin to placing coins in slot machines. This is now accepted as a self evident truth amongst forum members and is to the shame of the betting industry. They have absolutely no intention of even thinking about improving the margins.

    #112863
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Whats the problem?

    If you dont like it…use betfair…or chase the prices on course

    Comparisons with Curley are irrelevant. Ridiculous even

    Punters bet on FOBT’s and premieship football because although the margins may be poor, they do not feel that they are being cheated about the result. I think that many ordinary punters would rather bet on low margins straight football than high margin bent racing

    #112865
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Dream on, guys!
    Where’s the mileage in attacking the establishment?

    .. the changes they brought in last year to the SP system have allowed this to happen, it’s greed that’s driving this.

    If we, the supposed better informed punters don’t say anyting while the sport is slowly ruined, then who will ?

    The journalists who don’t say anything are the ones who should be worrying, after all it’s their jobs that will be on the line, not ours.

    It’s enough to make you want to start a career as an each way thief and do them some proper damage.

    #112867
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Sorry guys for being a bit stupid with this following question.

    As you are aware, I am in the main a placepot guy and therefore prices don’t matter to me much. I have the occassional single and multiple bets bet I don’t really worry too much about the prices, if I think it will win then any price is good enought for me – foolish I know.

    Anyway, my question is – what does 130% over round actually mean to the bookmaker? I ask this question with a view to a follow up question but I will await the answer first.

    Does it mean that realistically, all being equal, for every £130 the bookie pays out, he will have taken £100 in bets, therefore making £30 profit on every £100. Or is it more complicated than that?

    Cheers in advance.

    Mike

    #112874
    the welsh wizard
    Member
    • Total Posts 352

    Mikky – you’re nearly there my son, but if for every £130 he paid out he had taken £100 in bets it would be a LOSS of £30 he was making, not a profit. You never did get that GCSE Maths did you mate? :roll:

    #112876
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    The overround are the sum of all of the prices of each horse expressed as a percentage. For example, 2/1 means the horse has 2 chances of losing and one chance of winning out of a total of 3 chances.

    1 / 3 = .33 or 33%

    You do this for every runner in the race and add them together. On betfair the overround is 100%, that means that every runner is priced to it’s actual chance of winning (not exactly true). A poor book is greater than 1.4% per runner, that is the sum of the prices divided by the number of runners in a race

    I know your next question is going to be something along the lines of .. ‘well if I back the winner how is that bad for me, or something .. ‘

    It’s all about getting value for your gambling pound, if the bookie artificially compresses the prices then you might only get 4/1 about your 5/1 winner, instead of the 5/1 you are entitled to. This is compunded further by multiple betting because the negative edge is multiplied by itself. So when his 5/1 double comes in once a year he only collects 24/1 instead of the 35/1 he should get.

    I think the Tote takes out 17% of the pool in the placepot, would you be worried about the pools shrinking if they started taking out 30%, when people realised that they weren’t getting a fair deal ?

    #112879
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    The tote takes out 27% in the placepot :oops:

    #112880
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Mikky – you’re nearly there my son, but if for every £130 he paid out he had taken £100 in bets it would be a LOSS of £30 he was making, not a profit. You never did get that GCSE Maths did you mate? :roll:

    :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

    And guess what, I wrote it the other way round, then edited it – I spent 10 minutes thinking about it and I still got it wrong. I’ve mentioned it before, I am no good until I have had my coffee lol.

    Feel a right fool now :lol:

    Anyway, my next question was, that if 130% over round means a bookie makes a £30 profit on every £100 he takes, then is this really a bad thing. OK, again this might be a stupid comparison, but at the end of the day the bookmaker is a business and has to make his living – and when you compare his 30% profit to a loan shark, who will lend you £100 and ask for at least £150 back, then is 130% over round really bad.

    Oh I wish I never got into this debate, you are all going to shoot me down aren’t you. Be gentle :lol:

    Mike

    #112881
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Hi DaveJay,

    Thanks for your detailed explanation. I should have mentioned that I know how an over round is made up, I just didn’t know what 130% meant to the actual bookmaker, but I thank you for taking the time to write what you did. And as you can see, my next question is above – but probably a bit pointless and stupid lol.

    Cheers,

    Mike

    #112883
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    Mike

    Overrounds don’t guarantee any profit whatsoever. Imagine if someone bet 4-6 heads, 11-10 tails on a fair coin toss. There is an overround there, but any bookmaker offering those prices long term would lose money.

    On horseracing, bookmakers would make far less than 30% profit even if they bet to 130% overrounds.

    #112884
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    The tote takes out 27% in the placepot

    .. blooming heck, no wonder I gave it up !!

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