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Timeform, in their infinite wisdom, have surely stirred a hornet’s nest among the great horse’s fans by giving Kauto Star a new rating of 165+
– a drop of 25Ilb from his all time top rating of 190. It would seem that they, like many others, also think that his ability to achieve high level performances is very much a thing of the past and that he is now very much on the decline.
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- Total Posts 17716
They didn’t think so 12 months ago, when they gave him a ridiculous rating for the 09 KG – a race which his trainer now reckons he wouldn’t even have won; had the others not gone off too fast
They didn’t think so 12 months ago, when they gave him a ridiculous rating for the 09 KG – a race which his trainer now reckons he wouldn’t even have won; had the others not gone off too fast
I think Nicholls said that the margin of victory was exaggerated by the others going off too fast, rather than him being lucky to win.
- Total Posts 17716
I was quoting third-hand, but having since looked at the RUK interview, he didn’t actually specify either. He did say Kauto had probably lost a bit of speed, and Kempton wouldn’t suit him as well as Cheltenham.
Seems both he and Ruby laughed at the 09 rating, though.KS has now been well below form on his last three starts.
How can Timeform still rate Kauto Star at 190, when it’s been over a year and 4 starts since running to that rating? The 190 was put up in the 2009 King George when KS was a 9 year old. On Saturday he was/is now (at least officially) 11 years old.
There is a big doubt whether KS is still capable of running to 190.
What would be the correct rating to give Kauto Star?
The one he put up over a year ago?
Or
The best rating he has run to in his last three starts, with a plus because he’s probably capable of something between 165 and 190?
Or
Pick a rating at random between those two figures?Timeform have done what they had to.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 102
Must admit that i always had suspicions of the high rating that was given to the 09 King George, Nacarat and Ollie Magern being the key to the race in that the former could well be the best horse out of the three(Barbers and Madison) that filled the places behind Kauto that day_Discounting Imperial Commander as his form there bears no resemblance to his ability.
IMHO, Nacarat was the only one ridden to beat KS in that race and consequently paid the price for not getting the fractions right for a optimum performance, i hand timed the race and he got to the 4th last quicker than the RP Trophy which he won on quicker ground(Caveats for distance would apply though) the subsequent form of the second and third in the event would bring doubts to the table as well.
Its hard to judge horses when they race only two or three times a year, as his rating suggest, he seems to have gone from a mark of 177 pre Gold Cup 09 all the way up to a mark in the 190s and back down again.
I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle, but wouldnt like to guess where, however the media can be assured to either bump it up one way or another
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Ginger
Must be the quickest rise and fall in NH history then?
Boxing Day 09, he achieves (reputedly) his best ever performance, but regresses so rapidly, that he’s almost a 2 stone worse horse, only a year later?
Truth is, Timeform’s assesment was clearly too high, he never ran to 190 (higher at the time – IIRC) in that race, nor has he deteriorated 25lbs since.- Total Posts 17716
Lets go back to the King George 2009, could some one tell me how Kauto Star ideally would have earned a 190 rating?
Feel free, use your imagination.
By using accurate Standard Times and SOLIDUS.
( Unless anyone knows otherwise, I am the only one who has computerised SOLIDUS )To hit this rating, KS would have had to finish 23 seconds faster.
Yes how exactly they came to that rating. They used Madison Du Berlais who form has been woeful and finished 70l behind Long Run who and was beaten 36l by Kauto Star
. Stupid Mark from Timeform in the that 190+.Using poor horses such as Barbers Shop/MDB to form such a rating is not satisfactory what so ever
Ginger
Must be the quickest rise and fall in NH history then?
Boxing Day 09, he achieves (reputedly) his best ever performance, but regresses so rapidly, that he’s almost a 2 stone worse horse, only a year later?
Truth is, Timeform’s assesment was clearly too high, he never ran to 190 (higher at the time – IIRC) in that race, nor has he deteriorated 25lbs since.I’d suggest Moscow Flyer could run him close. Still imperious when winning the Champion and Melling Chase in 2005, but well below that figure just weeks later at Punchestown then a shadow of the horse he was in 2005/6.
Amazing all these definitive assertions that 190 ish from BHA/RP and Timeform was too surface with 12 months of hindsight behind them.
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Yeah but at what point do we all agree that the performance was 190, what would Kauto Star have to have done in 2009 to achieve a "genuine" 190 rated performance, I can’t see anything other than a wide margin victory over a field of strong three milers in which he done.
- Total Posts 102
Some of us said it at the Time DJ although the best time to rate a horse is in retrospect(and a lot easier lol)
Madisons won a what turned out to be very poor Hennessey(think that the next three behind him didnt win afterwards) off a mark around 150 i believe, he caught Denman who seemed to be off colour after a heart condition right handed at Kempton and beat him also at Liverpool where he fell after still not looking himself, he’s probably at his right mark now
The only race Barbers has ever won at 3m was at Sandown against horses in the 140s and now looks very ordinary.
Ginger
Must be the quickest rise and fall in NH history then?
Boxing Day 09, he achieves (reputedly) his best ever performance, but regresses so rapidly, that he’s almost a 2 stone worse horse, only a year later?
Truth is, Timeform’s assesment was clearly too high, he never ran to 190 (higher at the time – IIRC) in that race, nor has he deteriorated 25lbs since.David beat me to it with Moscow Flyer, very similar.
What part of "+" don’t you understand Reet.
A "+" in Timeform means "the horse may be better than we have rated it". Kauto Star is probably capable of beter than 165, even though he hasn’t bettered that mark for 3 runs (over a year). So I agree Reet, he probably hasn’t deteriorated 25lbs (yet).
It would be clearly wrong to rate him at 190; or whatever else you think he ran to in the 09 King George, whether 190, 185, 183, 180 etc. Because he has not been anywhere near it since 2009.
Another horse rated with a "+" is Big Buck’s 174+. Presumably because he idles in front. Tends to do just enough whoever he’s up against. If anyhing were good enough to challenge BB he’d probably find more and put up a better rating than 174. Hence the "+".
KS is probably capable of better than 165, but it is impossible to rate the horse any higher on recent form, hence the "+".
Value Is EverythingOutstanding ratings are acheieved rarely, if they were produced often, they wouldn’t be outstanding. The trouble is that they are likely to be reliant on a particular set of circumstances. and if those circumstances don’t fall right again, then it’s unlikely that a horse will reproduce that rating.
That’s an easy line for those defending a high rating to use, but it’s no less easy than those who doubt the rating when a horse fails to reproduce it subsequently despite failing to accept that they’ve not had similar conditions. It it perhaps a flaw that we will all have to deal with when it comes to handicapping horses in the conventional pounds per length way, and why understanding horses, their profiles and requirements are just as important, if not moreso than one particular rating.
Anyone that relies of Timeform telling them that Kauto Star’s definite level of merit now is either 165 or 190, will find betting on horses an expensive hobby. The truth almost certainly lies somewhere between the two, but there isn’t any point in plucking a random figure from thin air to do so. Since the King George Kauto Star has completed on 2 occasions. Therefore he’s been rated on the better of those efforts, namely Down Royal.
Alot of the points I make here would be just as relevant to that other wide margin King George winner that I forget the name of.
Some of us said it at the Time DJ although the best time to rate a horse is in retrospect(and a lot easier lol)
Madisons won a what turned out to be very poor Hennessey(think that the next three behind him didnt win afterwards) off a mark around 150 i believe, he caught Denman who seemed to be off colour after a heart condition right handed at Kempton and beat him also at Liverpool where he fell after still not looking himself, he’s probably at his right mark now
The only race Barbers has ever won at 3m was at Sandown against horses in the 140s and now looks very ordinary.
Correct me if I am wrong David,
KS wasn’t rated on Madison Du Berlais’s Hennessey form or Aintree etc. They rated the King George second as a below par performance, one which the Pipe horse was "flattered". Coming from the back after others chased KS.Barber Shop never wins Full Stop. Just because he "never won at 3m", doesn’t mean he does not stay 3 miles. Indeed, on his previous start the Henderson horse was placed 4th in the Hennessey beaten 7 lengths by Denman getting 18lbs from the big horse. Just a short head behind Niche Market, giving that horse 8 lbs + 3 lbs (11 lbs). Latter going on to be placed again this year. At the time Barber Shop was a pretty good horse, though always a bit of a thinker when witha winning chance.
In the King George a few weeks later, Barber Shop was beaten more than a DISTANCE.
Since then Barber Shop’s temperament has deteriorated further, if he’s not already should be rated with a squiggle.
Value Is Everything
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