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Yes, I had a bad feeling about today, and my heart rate has only just got back to normal . Thank goodness I was wrong….
A brilliant exhibiton, certainly the best 3 miler since Desert Orchid, maybe he’ll prove himself even better than that.
To think his trainer said Kempton is not his course….I think PN believes what he says sometimes and then reads it and says did I say that…..It all seems the same to Kauto in my eyes………he IMO could probably go back to 2 miles tomorrow and win just as impressively…….he like Arkle was, seems to be a bit of a freak of nature…he is not your normal Dessie horse……. he’s really special this fellow
Things go wrong in racing and you never know the moment, but I sincerely hope he stays healthy for years to come and we get to see how special he may well be.
I hope Denman wins impressively tomorrow ……..I think this is actually a tougher race than the Hennessy turned out to be……….he may well be a 4/11 shot but if I hadn’t doubled him with Kauto I wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole…The fact is, on paper he has one horse to beat who is said to be a doubtful stayer……So why run The Listener? Why run a horse who doesn’t stay especially with the rep Denman and a few half decent animal in the race. If a horse doesn’t get the trip he could finish stone last………Wouldn’t they have had more chance round Kempton’s easy 3 miles of taking home a bit of prize money?
No one shrewder than the Irish…….I think they are pretty certain the horse will get the trip and we fans might get a shock tomorrow of how tough a race he gives Denman.
Hope I am wrong but I had a look at the Listener again…….this horse will be no pushover and if Denman beats him like he beat the Hennessy field I will be shaking in my boots for the next couple of months wondering if he is going to do the same to Kauto.
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FoF
The Listener is probably a stone better horse on soft or heavy, and if tomorrow’s ground remains the forecast good he wouldn’t pose even the slightest threat to Denman.
In his only 2 chase runs on good ground, he has yet to even complete the course.I hope Denman wins impressively tomorrow ……..I think this is actually a tougher race than the Hennessy turned out to be……….he may well be a 4/11 shot but if I hadn’t doubled him with Kauto I wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole…The fact is, on paper he has one horse to beat who is said to be a doubtful stayer……So why run The Listener? Why run a horse who doesn’t stay especially with the rep Denman and a few half decent animal in the race. If a horse doesn’t get the trip he could finish stone last………Wouldn’t they have had more chance round Kempton’s easy 3 miles of taking home a bit of prize money?
The Listener Won a novice hurdle over 3m1 at Warwick in heavy ground. He has won over tomorrows course and distance twice, winning this race and the Irish Hennessy both in Heavy ground. He also won the dipper on g/s. We have yet to see the best of The Listener on ground of the easy side of good over this trip.
The danger to Beef or Salmon and the Listener is Denman.
Beef or Salmon is a cracking price to go one better than last year the ground will put off a lot of punters but let us not forget that he ran best mate to 3 length on "Cheltenham good", beat War of Attrition on yielding and was the horse running second to Kauto Star before Exotic Dancer came along. He’s in the form of his life and should just about be coming to his peak at 11.
Denman has shown bits of form against not much opposition. Mainly heavy ground sloggers like Snowy Morning, Snakebite and Dream Alliance (could not even complete today with conditions seemingly in his favour, How good is the Hennessy form now?)
FoF
The Listener is probably a stone better horse on soft or heavy, and if tomorrow’s ground remains the forecast good he wouldn’t pose even the slightest threat to Denman.
In his only 2 chase runs on good ground, he has yet to even complete the course.With all respect Reet how can you say that?
I am not saying you are wrong but he won last year on Good to soft and had Beef or Salmon and Gold Cup winner WOA behind him.
Denman hasn’t beat anything of that caliber……..we assume he is very very good and everything points to him winning accept one thing……..he’s going to have to be everything we think he is and more and we simply don’t know how good he is………This horse will not go down without a fight and he doesn’t move like a horse who won’t go on good ground…….I wish I shared your confidence but I am afraid I can’t.
God I hope you’re right though.
Let’s not get too carried away. Kauto is a helluva horse, but in my opinion, not unbeatable. Let’s just see how Denman gets on today.
I reiterate: until he can give lumps of weight away to his contemporaries and still win (ala Arkle, Burrough Hill Lad and Desert Orchid), then I believe all suggestions that he is the best since Arkle are odious. Arkle, for example, would, I am certain, have destroyed Kauto Star at levels, and would still have beaten him over three miles giving him weight.
The only time Kauto Star has been asked to concede weight to a good horse (Monet’s Garden ) he failed. To me, that tells its own story. The really great horses can give the weight away to other class horses.
Maybe I’m playing devil’s advocate a little bit here, as I’m a huge fan of Kauto Star, but like Best Mate before him, there will always be this niggling feeling that unless he contests and wins a top class handicap chase, then then the jury will be forever out as to how great he really was.
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I disagree Himself.
For me, Kauto Star already has immeasurably better form in the book than Best Mate. He also shown the kind of versatility that was beyond Best Mate. He has also – if we’re being pedantic – won a handicap, giving plenty of weight away in the 2006 Old Roan.
The jury was out on Best Mate because there were holes in his form, and because connections chose not to give the horse an opportunity to plug the gaps.
Kauto Star is a different beast altogether.
His form stands the closest scrutiny, and imo, he doesn’t really need to win a top-class handicap, while he continues to beat 160+rated chasers, by a hard-held dozen lengths. It would be nice to see him run in the Racing Post Chase though.
The only time Kauto Star has been asked to concede weight to a good horse (Monet’s Garden ) he failed. To me, that tells its own story. The really great horses can give the weight away to other class horses.
The Aintree run only goes to show(me at any rate) how badly prepared the horse was. He must have had very little work. At Haydock he must have only been half fit to allow them so close. This week he was on the button. There is no knowing how much improvement there is in the horse, even for the rest of this season if he’s kept upto his work.
Trainers these days don’t seem to want to run the good ones as often-there was always lots of comment about the Best Mate campaigns and it seems that Clive Smith is the driving force behind Kauto’s campaign (Tingle Creek entries for instance).
Trainers can often be seen to "protect" them by sending them out short of peak fitness.It isn’t the horses fault its not being campaigned like Arkle and the full potential being explored – or the owners.
there will always be this niggling feeling that unless he contests and wins a top class handicap chase, then then the jury will be forever out as to how great he really was.
Cant agree with that at all. Why this obessesion some have with handicaps? Beating your peers (easily) off level weights should be enough FFS.
I would have far more respect for the fact that KS has won over a marked variety of distances and conditions than if he had simply won the Hennessey and the GC say
Trainers can often be seen to "protect" them by sending them out short of peak fitness.It isn’t the horses fault its not being campaigned like Arkle and the full potential being explored – or the owners.
Oh FFS. Kauto has already run just two fewer races than Arkle (yawn…) and are you really claiming that he wasnt fully campagned last season? Every top grade one over the near full range of distances at all sorts of courses.
Clivex wrote
"Cant agree with that at all. Why this obessesion some have with handicaps? Beating your peers (easily) off level weights should be enough FFS."
Maybe so, but to be considered a truly exceptional horse like Arkle, who once conceded 16 pounds to arch rival Mill House, and still won by a distance, Kauto Star would have to (in my eyes) do a similar job on Denman, who has been likened to Fulke Wawyn’s great chaser.
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I agree with you all it’s the festive season
But I do agree……Himself, like myself will defend Arkle to the death and what he did to Mill House at Sandown may never ever be repeated pound for pound. Never forget the form and time and everything about the race stands up 100%………Mill House’s Jockey thinking he was going to trot up 4 fences from home, then Arkle going past him like a rocket and knocking 17 seconds of the track record, Rondetto a class act in his own right went on to win the Hennesssy never getting in a blow.
First thing you would have to do is find a new Mill House and by god there isn’t many horses I have seen could match him. He won a Hennessy carrying 12 st the horse in 2nd? None other than Arkle himself and getting 5lbs at that. Ok Arkle did improve, obviously, but he was still one helluva horse when Mill House beat him.
Chances are there will never be another Arkle v Mill House situation.
Where Denman is concerned I am still not convinced he is a world beater, the new Mill House or poses any great threat to Kauto Star. If he had kicked ED into touch or similar I would be much happier to start shouting his name from the roof tops.(Incidentally the horse that beat Denman at Cheltenham goes chasing on Saturday)
So even if Kauto beat ED giving him 35lbs old buggers might say yeah but ED wasn’t as good as Mill House. So it’s pretty futile for Kauto fans as the subborn beggars won’t let you win anyway
Seriusly though, this just isn’t going to happen, racing has changed and no way is Kauto ever going to be asked to run in a race giving away lumps of weight. Unless like this season he’s out for a look at the grass and to say hello to the folks and give them a few waves……better known as a pipe opener but at that time of the season good horses are rarely up to there best and the form is knocked on the head at a later date.
They will probably go on as they are doing for as long as they can and if he were to go on and win 3-4 king George’s and 3-4 gold cups and win them like the race he has just won, who could argue that he was not equal to Arkle. Only Golden Miller won 5 but he was also beaten more times than your living room rug which cannot be said about Kauto.
There is one thing for sure….he is the first horse in 40 years to be seriously compared to "Himself" and that in itself is a huge compliment.
That is something no other horse can boast of, Not your Burroughill lads, Captain Christies, Best Mates (well nutty Biddy did) or even Dessie himself.
This is one serious horse enjoy him while you can.
Clivex wrote
"Cant agree with that at all. Why this obessesion some have with handicaps? Beating your peers (easily) off level weights should be enough FFS."
Maybe so, but to be considered a truly exceptional horse like Arkle, who once conceded 16 pounds to arch rival Mill House, and still won by a distance, Kauto Star would have to (in my eyes) do a similar job on Denman, who has been likened to Fulke Wawyn’s great chaser.
Its a different world now, Kauto Star and the like very rarely run in handicaps as there are more options and better prizes to be won. You’re waiting for something that won’t ever happen in this day and age.
I still don’t see why KS’s form is still open to scrutiny because he hasn’t won a handicap. Handicaps involve the judgement of a third party in the form of the BHA, so there is a matter of opinion involved before the tapes even go up. Thus are they really a great indicator of a horses’ class? If KS went out and won a Hennessey or a National it would only prove that he’s better than Phil Smith thinks he is!
FWIW, I don’t think KS likes giving weight away. He struggled in the Old Roan this year and in the Aon, and in last year’s OR he was great value off his mark compared to the exposed old campaigners he faced. This is where I think he, and many modern staying chasers, differ from the GC heroes of old. They used to be big, brawny things that jumped and stayed as long as you asked them to. In the last 10 years staying chasers have evolved, and now you need speed as well as stamina to win a GC (see Best Mate, Kicking King, KS & ED). The drawback is of course that horses bred to be quicker often turn out smaller also, thus they are less likely to take to the idea of lugging big weights around in hock-deep mud like their burly predecessors.
This is why I find the upcoming GC so interesting. Denman today looked to me every inch the ‘old skool’ GC horse- jumps gloriously, goes forever even from the front but lacks that burst of speed that 2-milers possess. KS is completely the opposite- he has had jumping problems and prefers a sharp 3 miles, but he can bury races in a matter of strides. It looks like being a clash of the generations, and with every day I get that little bit more excited about seeing chasing’s ‘big 3’ clash on the 14th of March.I’m not so sure giving weight would be too much of a burden on Kauto. Had the others all been on 11st I doubt if the result would have been much different. He was near top condition on Wednesday something you couldn’t say about him in his first race of the season.
However I get your point and horses like Arkle, Mill House and Denman would be far better suited to giving away weight as they were and are relentless gallopers and not sprint finishers like Kauto.
I can’t see the Gold Cup being the race we thought it might be. I do think Denman is a better horse than ED and have already said so but barring accidents he couldn’t live with Kauto…..right now I don’t think anything could.
The papers will push this Dual of the Titans all the way to the line but after the Lexus I think Denman has exposed himslf and his limitations.
The price on offer of 15/8 is shockingly low I honestly thought they would have pushed him out to 3/1 or 7/2.one would need to be lost in Space to take that price about beating Kauto……..if it was a straight match I reckon 4/11 Kauto would be a fair price.
The papers will push this Dual of the Titans all the way to the line but after the Lexus I think Denman has exposed himslf and his limitations.
The price on offer of 15/8 is shockingly low I honestly thought they would have pushed him out to 3/1 or 7/2.one would need to be lost in Space to take that price about beating Kauto……..if it was a straight match I reckon 4/11 Kauto would be a fair price.
We’ll agree to disagree there ~ although I’m not queueing up to take 15/8 Denman, I’d be more than happy to take the 9/4 that will doubtless be available through the winter. While Kauto Star should undoubtedly be jolly in a match bet, I’d make him no shorter then 8/11 (true odds). But as someone once said, It’s all about opinions.
Regarding modern chasers and GC Winners, Best Mate, Kicking King and War of Attrition were all 2nd in he Supreme Novices, which shows the modern chaser does have speed. Seem to remember before Best Mate and Kicking King’s GC doubts about stamina.
On another point, yes the 60’s,70’s,80’s were great eras, but why should we expect the top horses to lug top weights in Handicaps anymore? You wouldn’t expect a Derby winner to run in the Ebor, or a Guineas winner run in the Cambridgeshire, time has moved on, the top horses will likely stick to Conditions events nowadays, you can’t really blame connections can you?
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