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IMO Sizing Europes Irish Champ was a better piece of form than Katchits though, Katchits champ hurdle IMO basically equated to a small field as there was such a slow pace, and such bad jockeying on most of the contenders that well over half the field never even got into the race. He did show guts to hold off Osana and Sublimty, the only pair that even remotely looked like being in contention, but Sizing Europes Irish Champ was pound for pound more impressive IMO.
IMO Hawkwing’s best performances were something special particularly the lockinge.
That’s a form book view Clive……..use your imagination more….he’s as good as Katchit for sure (at least to thetop of the hill at Cheltenham
)He’s just got that thing about him that Katchit hasn’t……you get it in champagne but you don’t get it in a bottle of Barr’s Irn Bru…like you open one you get a pssssssstttttttt and you open the other and the cork knocks a hole in the ceiling.
Sizing Europe gives me the impression that if all goes well on Champion Hurdle day he will slaughter everything that gets in his way.
The cash is on Binny but this fellow scares the life out of me…..Katchit he wouldn’t see in his way.
Sizing Europe’s AIG win was undoubtedly the best piece of hurdles form last year. A form line through Al Eile put him a good few pounds clear of Katchit.
I wouldn’t have had Al Eile (or Hardy for that matter) down as an in and out performer Clive. He had beaten Katchit home in the Fighting Fifth and then he went to Liverpool in April and beat Osana 10L over 2m4. There was no suggestion from either John Queally or Dessie Hughes that their horses didn’t run to form in the AIG. Dessie decided to go the Stayers Hurdle route last year because he thought Hardy had no chance of turning the form around with Sizing Europe.
Katchit is an admirable little horse and nobody can take his Champion Hurdle away from him but I think he was fortunate that Sizing Europe went wrong coming down the hill. I hope Sizing Europe proves his well being on Monday and shows that his AIG win was no fluke. He’ll take all the beating at Cheltenham despite all this Binocular hype.
It must be infuriuating to own or train a horse that wins at Cheltenham 2 years running; win the Champion Hurdle at such a young age and then spend the next year having people say that he shouldn’t really have won..at the end of the day he did win, he won it well and it is Sizing Europe that has it all to prove..if litlle Katchit never wins another race in his life the history books will show him to be Champion Hurdler 2008 and SE will be forgotten…..
Imperial,
You have done a good job defending the form of Sizing Europe’s win over Al Eile and Hardy Eustace. The two also finished close to each other on their previous start. So don’t see how they can’t be rated as running somewhere near form.
However, why do you then disregard form with Binocular? Saying it is hype. Even if Katchit was not his Champion standard. To beat him, Crack Away Jack and his stable companion (those he raced with), by that far; looks exceptional. Gave Celestial Halo an easy lead / 7 lengths start, and beat him easily.
Yes it is only one performance, and I do like to see horses put up another one of that standard. But Sizing Europe, and for that matter Katchit, have only put up one real top class effort.
On form I’d say Binocular’s form / best run is better than the other two horses.
Hype, what hype?
Mark
Value Is EverythingI’m not disregarding Binocular Mark. Far from it, I’m a massive fan of the horse and you couldn’t but be impressed with his wins at Ascot and Liverpool. The "hype" I’m referring to is the fact that he’s as short as 5/4 for Cheltenham which makes no appeal to me. He’s a worthy favourite, I won’t dispute that, but I think he’s far too short at the moment given the fact he was beaten in the Supreme and 5yos have such a poor record in the race. 8/1 Sizing Europe represents far better value and I would expect that price to halve after Monday.
Hopefully both horses get to Cheltenham in one piece and they both run their race on the day. Fists has been saying for months how this could be the best Champion Hurdle for years and I suspect he is right.
Imperial,
You have done a good job defending the form of Sizing Europe’s win over Al Eile and Hardy Eustace. The two also finished close to each other on their previous start. So don’t see how they can’t be rated as running somewhere near form.
However, why do you then disregard form with Binocular? Saying it is hype. Even if Katchit was not his Champion standard. To beat him, Crack Away Jack and his stable companion (those he raced with), by that far; looks exceptional. Gave Celestial Halo an easy lead / 7 lengths start, and beat him easily.
Yes it is only one performance, and I do like to see horses put up another one of that standard. But Sizing Europe, and for that matter Katchit, have only put up one real top class effort.
On form I’d say Binocular’s form / best run is better than the other two horses.
Hype, what hype?
Mark
I would say that is a misinterpretation of it ginge. Surely an "easy lead" is when a horse is allowed a clear lead at a slow pace and is therefore hard to reel in when the sprint for home is on. Usually when a horse goes off at a brisk pace (as celestial halo done) then the tactic is to let them take that lead as when they tire, they will come back to you, that is not what I would call an easy lead.
The strength of celestial halo is that he can go to the front at a fast pace and stay there, however the ground on saturday was not sufficiently testing for such a tactic to work and binocular had all the attributes required to reel him in. The reason for Binoculars easy win on saturday was that the ground was perfectly suited to Binoculars speed, and on similar ground at cheltenham, there isnt a Champ Hurdle Contender that could beat an in-form Binocular, let alone Celestial Halo having the speed for it on a good surface round ascot.
But IMO it is incorrect to suggest that Celestial Halo was advantaged by an easy lead, as he was not, IMO he was disadvantaged by quicker ground than he really needs at 2 miles to show his best.
I’m not disregarding Binocular Mark. Far from it, I’m a massive fan of the horse and you couldn’t but be impressed with his wins at Ascot and Liverpool. The "hype" I’m referring to is the fact that he’s as short as 5/4 for Cheltenham which makes no appeal to me. He’s a worthy favourite, I won’t dispute that, but I think he’s far too short at the moment given the fact he was beaten in the Supreme and 5yos have such a poor record in the race. 8/1 Sizing Europe represents far better value and I would expect that price to halve after Monday.
Hopefully both horses get to Cheltenham in one piece and they both run their race on the day. Fists has been saying for months how this could be the best Champion Hurdle for years and I suspect he is right.
IC,
Your statement does not make sense. Why do you give the lowest price for binocular (5/4) and yet the biggest price for Sizing Europe is 8/1 (17/2 on betfair? It is an unfair comparrison. SE”s shortest price is 6/1, at that price Sizing Europe would be bad value too. 5/4 Binocular is irrelevant when available at almost 2/1 on betfair.
Do I think Binocular has a better than 2/1 chance (33%) of winning the Champion? At this moment in time yes. Being a sound horse (so far) and probable to get there.
Do I think Sizing Europe has a better than 17/2 chance (10.5%)? Possibly yes. Though he is difficult to give an accurate assassment to. His price is really all about probability to show his form and likleyhood of getting there. Basically being an unsound horse. It might be that he needed the run first time up, but he did go out very tamely. From moving easily to poorly in strides. Similar to the Champion. So if he gets to the Champion in form his price may well be half it is now. But that IF is the major question aout him and so the major reason he is 17/2 and not 4/1 at this moment in time.
Mark
Value Is EverythingBinocular reminds me more of Sea Pigeon, rather than Istabraq. On last saturday’s evidence however, it is obvious that Binocular is definitely the one they all have to beat come march – it is no foregone conclusion and as I said previously, Cheltenham is one race course where any stamina limitations will be thoroughly exposed. Not worried about his hurdling though, but 5/4 is not a price I would take at this stage.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Guys we are talking about two completely different type pf horses here and IMO either one of them could win the Champion Hurdle.
Let’s not forget as Sizing Europe came up through the ranks last season some people were already touting him as a Champion Hurdle horse months before the AIG. I backed him at 16/1 and I was on very early so it’s not like he just turned up out of the blue as a contender….every timehe ran he improved and his AIG win was one of the most spectacular wins seen over hurdles for years. He did it so easy the bookies immediately made him 6/4 favourite.
What Binocular did at Ascot he did in Ireland……..walked away from a decent field of class horses.
Sizing Europe has done nothing wrong since.He looked all over the winner last year until he pulled a muscle in his back and was all but pulled up. This season he looked like doing exactly the same thing to Hardy Eustace again and must have beeen 1/5 in running until he blew up. Despitethat he was only beaten narrowly and still managed to finish ahead of Irelands top novice Jered
He has to win well when he takes on 3 ex champions and Muirhead, who may prove the biggest danger, to come back into the picture but if he does that 8/1 is going to look great value.
It’s true I said at Ascot last seasonI thought we had just seen this seasons Champion Hurdle winner but I said the same thing about Sizing Europe last season when he beat Big Zeb and stuck with him all the way.
I think Binocular could be really special but make no mistake this Sizing Europe gets into a challeging position at Cheletnham he has such a huge stride he could go past Binocular so easily his little legs would have to be going like flippers on a drowning diver to keep up.
The only thing that swings me in Binoculars favour at this time is that he is a brilliant jumper and should Sizing Europe make any errors late on Binocular will be gone before he can recover.
How anyone can take Katchits runs to date seriously I have no idea. Ginge you are clutching at straws whe you say he and SE have only won one top class race each,that’s garbage unless you think the Triumph Hurdle and the race at Aintree when Punjabi was in arrears that Katchit won and the defeat of Osana in the Greatwood were not top class efforts. At the end of the day SE defeat of Osana was in a way better than his defeat of HE the way it turned out
I hope Sizing Europe wins his race well and we can look forward to what I expect to be a facinating Champion hurdle and perhaps the best since the epic battles bewteen Sea Pigeon, Monksfield and Night Nurse.
Bulwark,
The interpretation of "an easy lead" is a questionable one.
Looking at the start (from memory), I could be wrong, but I thought in the first 50 yrds Celestial Halo went off at a good pace. Where as the others (with the possible exception of Katchit) took time getting up to full speed, being sure to settle their mounts. Effectively giving Celestial Halo a head start. That is what I meant (in this instance) by an easy lead. I agree the pace was a good one.
Another way of getting an easy lead is like you suggest, by being allowed to set a slow pace out in front.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingImperial,
You have done a good job defending the form of Sizing Europe’s win over Al Eile and Hardy Eustace. The two also finished close to each other on their previous start. So don’t see how they can’t be rated as running somewhere near form.
However, why do you then disregard form with Binocular? Saying it is hype. Even if Katchit was not his Champion standard. To beat him, Crack Away Jack and his stable companion (those he raced with), by that far; looks exceptional. Gave Celestial Halo an easy lead / 7 lengths start, and beat him easily.
Yes it is only one performance, and I do like to see horses put up another one of that standard. But Sizing Europe, and for that matter Katchit, have only put up one real top class effort.
On form I’d say Binocular’s form / best run is better than the other two horses.
Hype, what hype?
Mark
I would say that is a misinterpretation of it ginge. Surely an "easy lead" is when a horse is allowed a clear lead at a slow pace and is therefore hard to reel in when the sprint for home is on. Usually when a horse goes off at a brisk pace (as celestial halo done) then the tactic is to let them take that lead as when they tire, they will come back to you, that is not what I would call an easy lead.
The strength of celestial halo is that he can go to the front at a fast pace and stay there, however the ground on saturday was not sufficiently testing for such a tactic to work and binocular had all the attributes required to reel him in. The reason for Binoculars easy win on saturday was that the ground was perfectly suited to Binoculars speed, and on similar ground at cheltenham, there isnt a Champ Hurdle Contender that could beat an in-form Binocular, let alone Celestial Halo having the speed for it on a good surface round ascot.
But IMO it is incorrect to suggest that Celestial Halo was advantaged by an easy lead, as he was not, IMO he was disadvantaged by quicker ground than he really needs at 2 miles to show his best.
The one thing that bothers me about Binoclular is Celestial Halo…..just what has this horse done and where does everyone get the idea he needs testing conditions?
He won a very very bad Triumph Hurdle against a half decent animal who had been beating next to nothing all season……Serabad who ran against Franchoek a few times has won lately but he’s a mile of top class. Those testing tactics he used wouldhave had him in mega trouble had he ranin Katchit’s year IMO
Anyway apart from that he’s done what?…..won apoxy maiden hurdle and got his ass kicked by Sentry Duty and Binny twice……….as far as needing more testing conditions you are taking that from his win in the Triumph from a grossly over rated horse IMO….he won only one race on the flat and that was on good to firm.
Binocular was impressive because he’s Binocular not because of what he beat……..for me Katchit and Crack Away jack won’t see Celestial Halo in their way at Cheltenham….I think he is no better than average and in no way a serious CH contender.
You could say Binny was flattered but as I said before he ran his race round Celestial Halo and that was by no means Binocular running to the best of his ability
Fist,
My statement is comparative. Horses do improve you know.
Katchit obviously put up top class efforts FOR A JUVENILE in the Triumph and Anniversary juvenile hurdles. But they were top class performances FOR JUVENILES not older horses. The form in itself is 10 lbs below his Champion form. Both Katchit and Punjabi improved in their second season. All Katchit’s other form is quite a bit below the Champion Hurdle performance.
Sizing Europe beat Osana in the Greatwood but both horses improved afterwards. Take Osana out of the race. Would you really say a 5 length beating of handicappers Chivalry and Trouble At Bay (giving them just 5lbs and 3lbs respectably); represents better form than beating Hardy Eustace and El Eile by 8 lengths (at levels)? That one win in the AIG was quite a bit better than any other form.
Come on Fist be reasonable.
Mark
Value Is EverythingDespitethat he was only beaten narrowly and still managed to finish ahead of Irelands top novice Jered.
Beating the likes of Maiden Taipan, Salford City and Cork All Star in slow times doesnt make Jered a top hurdler, novice or otherwise. It makes him another Noel Meade talking horse, thats all.
Franchoek started Even money favourite for the Triumph. Must be a bad horse then Fist.
And if you look Fist, if anything I have said it was Celestial Halo that was flattered by his proximity to Binocular, not the other way round.
It is not that Celestial Halo needs soft ground. It is that he needs a test of stamina at 2m. Therefore the softer the better because the softer it is the more stamina is needed and the less speed. Binocular is all about speed. So the softer it is the more chance Celestial Halo is of reversing form with Binocular. CH is by Galileo out of a High Top mare, and did run well in the St Leger.
The run against Sentry Duty was at 2m on good going. The one at Aintree was on a sharp track. Neither was a sufficient test of stamina for Celestial Halo.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingYou are assuming that soft ground will stop Binoclular Ginge and it simply won’t makean ounceof difference to him and you are also assuming he won’t produce a turnof foot on soft yet he quickened up brilliantly in heavy ground atone of the stiffest tracksin the country albeit as a novice……a novice good enough for me to say he was a Champion Hurdle horse there and then.
You guys can’t get the Sun Allianceout of your heads can you?
You are being silly making silly faces about Franchoek like I am some kind of idiot……..FFs open your eyes and try and learn toread through the lines mate. He’s been beaten what 4 times since the triumph? which was a crap race Binocular would have won by 10 lengths had he ran in it 100% fit, something he was not in the Sun Alliance.Forget Celestial Halo he won’t be a factor unless something falls over the top of him when he stops dead.
Have a nice Xmas mate 3.23am here and got an early Xmas Lunch tomorrowso I’m off to bed
Just to clarify, I certainly do not think Celestial Halo is any sort of good thing for cheltenham. I also think that Binocular goes on any sort of ground with cut.
What I did take away from cheltenham however is that A) Binocular has stamina limitations. He never never stopped dead in the supreme Novice and Captain Cee Bee I rate as a very good horse, but Binocular and Captain Cee Bee came off the turn like a couple of monsters and Bincoular was pulling away from Captain Cee Bee and was then reeled in up the hill, with a few of the others (who were giving Binocular weight) starting to make ground on him up the hill.
B) Celestial Halo proved at cheltenham that he isnt just a stamina horse, he actually has a furious travelling speed, which he can hold for the full 2 miles round cheltenham.
It is hard to say where Celestial Halo would have finished in the supreme novice if he had run it at the same pace as he did the Triumph, but one thing is almost certain, Bincoular wouldnt have been able to hold on to second place from snap tie up the hill. I was shouting Binocular on here to beat Celestial Halo at aintree on good ground because binocular gets a good ground 2 miles so well that he couldnt be run out of it, and if I’d known prerace on saturday that Binocular was getting the same ground again, I’d have said the same again.
However the reason Celestial Halo is no good thing for Cheltenham is because he will be at the front going like stink, and horses that do that even if they can maintain their speed are usually sitting ducks for horses coming from off the pace that may be full of running and can muster something closer to a full speed finish. That doesnt mean that he wont still win, but in the last few furlongs he will have done more than anything else in the field.
On good-soft or worse, Celestial Halo is not only the biggest danger to Binocular in his own right, but because he will will set up the champion hurdle for a staying contest, and there are better stayers than Binocular.
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