Juvenile Hurdlers 2022/23

[IanDavies]

An intriguing contest at Huntingdon tomorrow – the Chatteris Fen (later in the season and once regarded as a Triumph trial) it ain’t, but it’s of interest to me nonetheless.

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[Ben_Bernanke]

Love reading your posts BH, thanks for all the effort you put in, always fascinates me the amount of detail you include!

I was about to say there’s a potentially strong juvenile hurdle at Galway today (17:13) but have just noticed it’s actually a flat race lol, still, will be interesting to see how the top 2 in the betting go, could be Triumph horses.

[Bachelors Hall]

An intriguing race indeed. Definitely provides some respite from the field size saga…

Some refreshing and experimenting ahead…

To any new readers. A brief welcome and thank you very much for your curiosity. I research and write about juvenile hurdlers because it is a most underappreciated area of the sport. Underappreciated largely because of the dearth of information readily available to the racing public. To this end, while subscribing to the Historian’s process of using imperfect and patchy evidence to make sense of events, I attempt to lessen some of the mystery within the division. While I predominantly write previews and the likes for myself, I take great delight whenever they help the reader develop a greater appreciation of the sphere.

Nevertheless, I must make it abundantly clear that I AM NOT A TIPSTER. NOTHING I EVER WRITE HAS BEEN A TIP, NOR WILL IT EVER BE. I write solely to inform, never to advise. I do have a prospects list at the bottom, but this is solely to ascertain the strength of my analysis (to see if I am extrapolating the right kind of information from my data). If you ignored this unqualified maxim last season, you would have been a very successful punter. If you have been ignoring it this season, you would be cursing my very existence. To be clear, I very seldom bet on these things so would be appalled to suggest anybody bets on the basis of my work. If you use what you read to inform your punting then good luck and be sensible – but understand that it is entirely of your own volition.

To seasoned readers. You will know that my output is not as consistent as it has been in the past and can often be sporadic. This is because I have considerably less spare time than I did a year and a bit ago. Much as I would love to do long form previews and reviews for every race, the time and energy required does not exist. So, based on feedback I have been receiving for a while, my processes will evolve so that more races can be covered. For the sake of my time (and probably the sanity of many readers), ordinary races will be covered more in note-form. Notwithstanding, because I still prefer long-form, previews for the bigger and more notable races will be gratuitous in their verbosity. If I am feeling generous, I might add tl;dr’s to these because I do want as many people as possible to enjoy my work.

The Wetherby previews offered some indication that this would be coming, and the preview for the upcoming contest at Huntingdon will be a tender step towards brevity. As I have profiles ready written for the Kempton pair, this will be something of a hybrid.

Hope you enjoy and keep in mind that questions, feedback and suggestions are always welcome.

HUNTINGDON – 30th October – Preview
Race History/Stats
* 16 runnings since 2004
* Average winning RPR 116..25 (-2.07 cf. standard)
* Notable participants – Starluck (1st 2008 – 3rd Anniversary, 4th Triumph, future RPR 160), Nyanza (1st 2014 – 1st Aintree Fillies’ Hurdle)
* Newcomers have 14.10% strike rate, experienced horses 6.67% SR
* Previous winners r8-w3-5p

Course Info
* Flat, right handed, galloping track
* Average Winning DI 1.33 (+0.06 cf. standard)
* Clear round 96.38% (+0.32%)

Ground & Pace
* Good, watering to maintain, cloudy with light breeze, slim chance of rain
* Couple have raced prominently but neither are confirmed frontrunners.
* More emphasis on speed rather than stamina

Triumph Odds
Age of Sail 100/1

Admiralty House chg Alan King f7-0-4 (79) 86 j1-1-0 (-) 111 111
Sea The Stars (Tobougg){5-h}(1.00) 2/1 Enchanted Forest 133 3rd 2m Handicap Hurdle (120), Punchestown 2013
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 113 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. He boasts a 30.95% strike rate with juveniles at Huntingdon since 2004, with three winners from seven (McVicar, Nyanza and Twilight Twist) coming in this contest. When it comes to all Alan King self-trained newcomers rated 70 and above, his record of 18 wins from 50 runs is both healthy and substantial. Admiralty House is such a horse, having earned a BHA mark of 79 during a seven race flat career at the yard. Costing 55,000 guineas at a two-year-old breeze-up, and gelded before seeing the track, Admiralty House finished third in a nine furlong Wolverhampton novice stakes in January before going one better at Chelmsford over ten furlongs the following month; getting within a length of King Edward VII runner-up Grand Alliance. Given a near four month break, he returned to finish a good second in a Salisbury maiden over a mile and a half, but pulled too hard for his own good at Newbury and, with the hood applied, at Wolverhampton. His penultimate start saw him post a career best in a ten furlong handicap at Newbury in mid-August. Racing off 76, he took a keen hold once again while held up off a strong pace, but finished strongly within the distance and got to within a head of Cracksman’s brother at the line. However, he reverted to type at Yarmouth on his latest flat start in mid-September when finishing last of ten at Yarmouth having pulled hard and raced awkwardly under pressure. A nephew of Dutch Art (who has a 4.08% strike rate 8.33% improvement rate as a juvenile sire), the damline of Admiralty House consists of maiden jumpers. Half-brother Combarro twice finished runner-up in claiming hurdles as a four-year-old while uncle Enchanted Forest did place in a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, but was still a twenty-three race maiden. Nevertheless, sire Sea The Stars is a positive attribute as per his winner to runner rate of eleven from thirty-three which includes Stars Over The Sea, Starchitect and Admiralty House himself. His progeny’s strike rate does improve form 9.38% first-time to 42.86% by the third run (but drops to 0% on the fourth run, highlighting the limitations of statistics) which is another tenuous positive for Admiralty House. That winning hurdles debut came at Kempton a fortnight ago in a contest won by the yard five times since 2008; including with Mcvicar who followed up in this contest in 2012). A drifter from 2/1 in the morning to 7/2 at the off, Admiralty House took a keen hold in the rear of the field until pulling himself into a prominent position after the third. Without settling fully, he went into a definite lead on the side section of the track before engaging in a prolonged battle up the straight with the reopposing Age Of Sail. Age Of Sail appeared to be edging ahead on the approach to the final flight, but a clumsy jump returned the initiative to Admiralty House who forged a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. In terms of jumping, Admiralty House tended to go to his right (a trait which caused a heft collision at the fourth) and was fairly awkward at the second, the fourth and the last, but he was also neat at times so should be able to improve in that regard. Admiralty House will now have to concede Age Of Sail who was arguably in a position to beat him at Kempton, and his keen going nature could be a concern. Notwithstanding, the course characteristics and pace composition can help mitigate that negative, and the greater scope for improvement is a positive in Admiralty House’s bid to maintain his yard’s decent record in this contest.

Fils de Roi bg Fergal O’Brien j6-1-2 (60.0/132) 113 116
Saint des Saints (Poliglote){31}(0.67) 2/1 Worldbest 72.0 3rd Grand Prix d’Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/fils-de-roi
* French recruit bought out of claimer for €25,056
* Initially trained by Yannick Fouin – 52.63% WR with exports including Ptit Zig, Style de Garde, Riviere d’Etel and Domtaline.
* Winning claimers from French jumps races have 5-14 (35.71%) WR, 4-6 (66.67%) WR when costing over €25,000. First time strike-rate of 3-14, (all trained by David Pipe).
* Fergal O’Brien 26.09% WR, 14.29% SR first time out. Yet to saddle an ex-French jumps recruit but did get dual winner Volkovka out of a French flat claimer. Junior NH winner Tintintin also French sourced.
* Saints des Saints 30.77% WR inc. Monmiral, Le Rocher, Fusil Raffles and 9 others with Juv RPRs 135+ (wouldn’t have been claimers in France)
* Poliglote 33.33% WR as damsire inc. Goshen, Qualando and Magistrato.
* Distaff relatives inc. – 2/1 Worldbest, 0.5 Tengara (2nd 3yo H Enghien), 2/1 Orcantara (3rd Bournosienne), 2/2 Porticello, 2/2 Invicter (2nd Cambaceres), 2/2 Pindare (2nd Des Drags)
* Six races in France, winning once and placing twice.
* Made debut in early June with second to far superior horse. Badly outpaced second time out.
* Can be forgiven chase debut when landing in path of rival at four out, resulting in backside ending up on floor. Quite remarkable that he completed the course. Obstacle was similar to the water jump at Cheltenham’s XC course.
* Dropped to claiming company. Third over 3000m, raced prominently, outpaced, then regained 12l third on run-in.
* Well clear when somehow fell two out in Clairefontaine claiming chase.
* Landed Auteuil 3500m soft ground claimer last time by fifteen lengths. Almost unseated at fifth but otherwise jumped fine. Winning time poor, form worth rating in mid 110s.
* Capable recruit but will almost certainly need trip in due course. Conditions unlikely to suit.

Age Of Sail bg Gary Moore f6-0-2 (76) 83 j2-0-2 (116) 113
Frankel (Pivotal){22-b}(1.06) 0.5 Polarisation 114 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2015
Gelded shortly after his sole outing for Godolphin, where he beat one home in a Goodwood maiden last September, Age Of Sail’s next public appearance came at the Tattersalls February Sale where he fetched 60,000 guineas and joined Joseph Parr. In the space of eighty-two days, running over distances between eight and twelve furlongs, Age Of Sail failed to breach the front two in five outings. Nevertheless, he was never beaten any more than three and a half lengths and ended his stint with a BHA mark of 76. Twice placing fourth in a Windsor maiden and Southwell novice, he ran on well to finish third off 77 on his handicap debut over ten furlongs at Sandown, and might have finished closer when squeezed out in the closing stages at Leicester over an extra two furlongs. His flat stint was capped with a solid enough fifth of fourteen at Newbury and his attentions were turned to hurdles as he moved to Gary Moore’s yard. Another successful trainer in the sphere, Moore has a winner-to-runner rate of 35.91% while sire Frankel has one of 31.25%. A nephew of Lammtarra, jumpers are thin on Age Of Sail’s damline as while half-brother Polarisation finished second on his sole run in the sphere, the nearest winners stem from the fourth dam in King Of The Picts (4/5), Noland (4/5) and Ruzzini (4/6). Introduced at Chepstow last Saturday, Age Of Sail was backed from 5/2 in the morning to 13/8 second-favourite at the off and spent much of the contest held up in fourth of the five runners. Taking closer order at the top of the straight, he briefly held a narrow lead approaching two out, and disputed until his being slow away from the last gave the initiative, and ultimately a near three-length victory to Alan King’s Tuddenham Green (since runner-up in the Wensleydale). His round was reasonable for a debutant, but there was still room for improvement as he was slow away from the same flight on the first circuit, stumbled on landing after the fourth and tight at the next two. The winning time was comparable to the “Free Handicap Hurdle” later on the card (which was more steadily ran) and the form is about as strong as anything seen prior to the Wensleydale in what has been a weak British division thus far. Age Of Sail made his second hurdling appearance at Kempton a fortnight ago where he was sent off the 10/11 favourite. Sweated up before the race, he made the early running at a modest tempo before being headed at the far bend. Turning for home, he went alongside Admiralty House and after a protracted battle, appeared to just edge ahead before stumbling on landing; leaving his rival to eventually win by two lengths. Gary Moore has a record of six wins from forty-one (14.63% SR) at Huntingdon, and won this race in 2004 when it was a maiden contest. The seven pound pull with Admiralty House will be beneficial and Age Of Sail’s Chepstow second is perhaps the stronger form. However, this track may better suit his rival and the application of a visor will probably have to be effective in bringing out improvement in his overall jumping.

Briar Bank bg Toby Lawes f3-0-0 (54) 51 j1-0-0 (-) 72 76
Garswood (Verglas){9-b}(3.00) 1/0 Push Me 104 1st 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (91), Perth 2014
* Little form in three outings on the flat, including a pair of 10 furlong contests at Chelmsford and Sandown in May and June.
* First juvenile hurdler for Toby Lawes.
* Dam won modest Perth handicap. Half-brother and uncle were poor maidens, Classic Fly (1 win from 34) appears at 3/2, Larkwing at 5/3
* Made it 0 winners from 7 for sire Garswood on hurdling debut at Fontwell 30 days ago.
* 66/1, mid division, left behind on turn for home, one paced, won battle for 23¾l fourth after rival blundered at last.

Midnight Train bg Nicky Henderson f10-2-1 (61) 69
Iffraaj (Medicean){1-k}(1.67) 2/2 Ifiandra 56.0 3rd 3400m 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2018
* Rated 54 after three runs over 7f at two, beaten no less than 9¼l on each start
* Started 3yo campaign with narrow victories in handicaps; Windsor 8f, Nottingham 10f (well positioned in slow run race)
* Couple of 4th place finishes over 10f at Lingfield and Sandown sandwiched between modest efforts, including on heavy.
* Last seen finishing second at start of month in Wolverhampton handicap off 60. Last turning in, navigated traffic and stayed on well to finish ½l second.
* Should stay minimum trip, no real attitude concerns and possibly a bit better than official mark.
* Nicky Henderson has outstanding WR of 64.57% since 2004/05, first-time strike rate of 44.44%.
* Only other Clive Cox > Nicky Henderson juvenile was Little Dutch Girl (rare juv winner for sire).
* Many horses have joined Henderson having raced for owner Spence on the flat;- (*list not exhaustive*)
*** Eradicate – Mark Johnton – OR106 – Won on debut before winning two Swinton Hurdles, BHA high of 143
*** Cape Express – Michael Jarvis – OR97 – Won on second start over hurdles, four in total, BHA 136
*** Monetary Fund – Gerard Butler – OR83 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 130
*** Hurricane Higgins – Mark Johnston – OR103 – Won on sole hurdle start
*** Courtesy Call – Mark Johnston – OR86 – 4th Adonis on debut, won third start, BHA 123
*** Hassle – Clive Cox – OR95 – joined as 5yo, BHA 125
*** Nordic Quest – Gerard Butler – OR82 – thrice placed and won on fourth start, BHA 128
*** Grey Blue – Mark Johnston – OR 84 – 3rd debut juvenile, BHA 115
*** Recognition – Roger Varian – OR 70 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 110
*** Soldier In Action – Mark Johnston – OR105 – Won second start as juvenile, BHA 141
*** Fraser Island – Mark Johnston – OR 83 – Won debut as juvenile, BHA 135
*** Progressive – Roger Varian – OR 78 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 121
* Nicky Henderson 7-14 (50%) WR for flat recruits officially rated 70 and lower. Said recruits have 46.15% first-time strike rate.
* Record with juveniles at Huntingdon; r19 w8 p7 (42.11% SR)
* Henderson newcomers at Huntingdon since 2004 – Reaching Out 1st this race in 2005. Monetary Fund 1st, One Lucky Lady 2nd, Divin Bere 1st.
* Iffraaj 14.71% WR, winners include Cerberus, Doubly Clever and Battle Angel. WR rate increases to 23.53% when DI is 1.67 or lower
* Iffraaj improvement rate of 40.91% second highest in field. 54.55% when DI <1.68
* Family of Love (3/2) and Frankel (8/6). Cousin placed over hurdles at four in France. 3/1 Jumeriah Liberty (modest hurdle winner), 3/2 Birds Of Prey (fairly useful triple winner)

Strong prospects
1. Midnight Train
Reasonable prospects
2. Admiralty House
3. Age Of Sail
Feasible prospects
4. Fils de Roi
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
5. Briar Bank

[IanDavies]

Age Of Sail for me.

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[IanDavies]

Fils De Roi won well, but I thought the free-running Admiralty House ran well under a penalty – took a hold again, but again saw the race out well enough.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Gladiateur]

Fils De Roi was also penalised, Chezza. The first two pulled well clear, with both Age Of Sail and Midnight Train bitterly disappointing.

[IanDavies]

I never said he wasn’t, Gladders!

The next such feast is at Warwick this very Tuesday and Charles Street catches Chezza’s eye on his debut over timber.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Bachelors Hall]

Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate across all juveniles is 9.51%, winner-runner 19.37%, improvement rate 37.08%

Race History/Stats
* Ran each year since at least 2004 (18 runnings)
* Average winning RPR 123.14 (4.82 cf. standard)
* Notable winners –Chic Name (2015: 2.Finale), We Have A Dream (2017: 1.Anniversary), Allmankind (2019: 3.Triumph), Adagio (2020: 2.Triumph), In This World (2021: Beat Fil d’Or in France)
* Notable participants – Galahad Quest (4.2019: 1.Finesse), Biscar Two (3.2004: 2.Finale), Cobra de Mai (5.2015: 153 rated chaser)
* Odds on favs r7w6
* Stamina demands more pronounced than in other races at Warwick – winning Dis 0.78 md, 1.30 mn

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, left-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.37 (+0.10 cf. standard) – much lower in this contest
* Clear round 95.35% (-0.71% standard) – lower third in GB/IRE
* Front runners hold discernible advantage

Ground & Pace
* Good, good to soft in places with heavy rain forecast overnight. Light showers before racing.
* No habitual pacemakers but a few have raced prominently

Charles St bg Fergal O’Brien f9-1-7 (79) 87
Outstrip (Fantastic Light){5-g}(1.12) 2/2 Stag Horn 135 1st Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Warwick 2022
Breeding
* Outstrip 0-3 WR GB/IRE, 0-4 WR France, Exceed And Excel 11.59% WR as grandsire
* Fantastic Light 28% WR, 28.57% Improvement rate as damsire
* Cousin Stag Horn won G2 novice hurdle at this venue, another cousin Saint Riquier won a 2m3f HcH at Warwick after placing 2nd in Prestbury Hurdle
* Other relatives on damline – 2/2 Star Rider (1.2m3f NvHM) 3/2 Fashion Mix (1.3yH) 3/1 Fragrant Mix 58% WR as jumps sire
* First ex-George Boughey to go juvenile hurdling
Trainer
* Fergal O’Brien 29.17% WR, 41.67% (5-12) WR since 2020/21, Two winners from as many races this season.
* First time strike rate 18.18%, four of last ten newcomers won first time
* Charles St set to be trainer’s highest rated GB/IRE flat recruit (dual winner Volkovka rated 81 in France)
* Charles St also most expensive at public auction, fetching 50,000gns at Tatts August (winning debutant Naizagai cost 40,000gns)
* Yard in-form, landed double at Hereford on Monday
Horse
* 50,000gns Tatts August
* Made debut in January when second in 10f Lingfield maiden, off mark six days later in Wolverhampton 1m4f maiden – no subsequent winners
* Gelded and given three month break. Runner-up on five of next seven outings, all at around 12f
* Consistently posted performances worthy of mid-80s ratings but shown to hang and flash tail
* Tried in cheekpieces then blinkers last time out. Left off here on first run in 78 days
* Should stay, happy with ground, highest rated but only few pounds in hand

Forward Flight bg Alan King f7-1-1 (74) 82
Declaration Of War (Silver Hawk){9-f}(1.86) 2/2 Tap Tap Boom 136 4th Prix Pierre de Lassus (G3,4yH), Auteuil 2018
Breeding
* Declatation Of War 0-5 WR 0-15 SR, 25% imp
* Silver Hawk 24.24% WR, 20.83% imp as damsire
* Half-brother to Glide Down (2.JvH Mras), cousin of winners Tap Tap Boom (above), Thumbs Up, Turf Trivia 101 36-4-8 (4 jumps wins each) and Dark Equation (1.New York Turf Writers Cup Hurdle)
Trainer
* Alan King 113 winning juveniles since 2004/05 – highest in GB/IRE, 47.88% WR, 50.60 imp
* First time out – 26.07% strike rate. 27.47% self-trained flat recruits, 35.29% (r51-w18) when rated 70+ (1 faller)
* Warwick record; r48-w16-p15, record in this contest r10-w5-p3 (r4-w1-p1 with ex-flat debutants)
* Tom Bellamy 14.10% SR, 100% CR FTO, 3-11 Alan King juvs FTO, all Alan King r491-w65 13.24%
Horse
* Thrice raced at 2yo, beaten no less than 8¾l. Gelded over winter
* Won on return/handicap debut, landing 4 runner Yarmouth mile off 74 – set steady tempo, kept on when challenged. Runner-up 2nd next time, 3rd won 3 starts later
* Beaten 9l, 12½l and 36l next three outings. Given to pulling hard. Different mounting strategies along with hood (left off) employed

Non Stop bg Joe Tizzard f8-1-2 (67) 71
Starspangledbanner (Authorized){23}(0.33) 3/1 Moon Indigo 138 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Chase, Wetherby 2011
Breeding
* Starspangledbanner 30% WR, 57.14% imp, Authorized 27.78% WR as damsire
* 2/1 Arabian Sun, Ride The Lightning, Resplendent Light; all modest maidens, as was cousin Abertillery, 3/1 Moon Indigo (above) closest winner. 3/3 Thorpe
Trainer
* Joe Tizzard’s first juvenile hurdler. Colin Tizzard 37.5% WR, 5-10 WR flat recruits, 0-1 Self trained. r14-w1 FTO, r3-w0 Warwick
Horse
* €26,000 yearling at Goffs Sportsman’s
* Thrice beaten over 7f last Autumn at Chepstow and Kempton (x2), earning BHA of 59. Gelded over winter
* Denied by head on return/hcp debut over Lingfield 7f in May; setting strong pace, headed by fast finisher on line
* Never going at Salisbury over 6f, but off mark in Lingfield 8f Hcp off 62; good pace, prominent on outer, kicked clear home turn, always doing enough to win by ¾l and 1¾l
* Runner-up eventual winner, 3rd placed next time, 4th and 5th multiple subsequent wins
* Off for 53 days, returned with ¾l third of thirteen in Kempton 1m handicap off 66, prominent at solid tempo, kept on but just outpaced final furlong (not slowing down)
* Below par when last seen 69 days ago over same C&D, no obvious excuse and no explanation offered
* Untried beyond mile but racing style and pedigree suggest he should improve for trip. Yard had three winners (all favs) and a second Monday. Plausible pace angle.

Romancero le Dun bg Jane Williams Unraced
Spanish Moon (Fragrant Mix){7}(1.40) 1/0 Uranus Le Dun 61.0 3rd Prix Finot (L), Auteuil 2011
Breeding
* Spanish Moon 44.44% WR in GB/IRE, 10.17% WR in France
* Dam listed placed at 3 in France, 0.5 Falbala le Dun (1.4yH Com), 0.5 Italiaana le Dun (4-0-3), 3/2 Salsaretta (2.de Chambly; 3yHLM, 149 rated chaser), 3/2 Breaken (2.Frascati)
Trainer
* Jane Williams 35.71% WR. 4-11 36.36% WR unraced
* Nick & Jane Williams 16-56 28.57% WR unraced inc. Reve de Sivola, Me Voici, Urbain de Sivola, Siruh du Lac & Erick Le Rouge.
* Unraced newcomers from yard 7.55% FTO strike rate (2.49% for all trainers)
* Jane Williams at Warwick r4-w2-p1
Horse
* Unraced, €3,000 not sold at Arqana Summer Sale 2021

Vaxholm bg J S Moore f21-3-3 (48) 61
Estidhkaar (Yeats){1-k}(0.78) 3/1 Ptarmigan Lodge 111 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle, Navan 1996
Breeding
* Estidhkaar 0-9 WR, 0-27 SR, Yeats 0-1 as damsire, 3-23 (13.04%) WR sire
* Closest winning relative Ptarmigan Lodge (above), distant relatives Le Moss (5/1), Our Conor (5/4), Kempes (5/5)
Trainer
* Stan Moore 0-19 WR, 0-37 SR
Horse
* Won three from five on AW between October and January, the last being a 10f Lingfield handicap off 57.
* Nine runs since without a place
* Can run freely. Plenty to find with all, even on best form

Victory bg Alan King f9-1-3 (77) 81
Churchill (Champs Elysees){9-e}(0.91) 0.5 I Doubt That 90 10th 2m Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Navan 2022
Breeding
* Churchill first crop, 16.2hh, 2 winners from 5 to date (The Churchill Lad, Scriptwriter)
* Family of Zafonic (3/2), close jumps relatives of little note, Maze Runner (3/4) useful juvenile, Nearby (4/3) winning novice
Trainer
* Alan King 113 winning juveniles since 2004/05 – highest in GB/IRE, 47.88% WR, 50.60 imp
* First time out – 26.07% strike rate. 27.47% self-trained flat recruits, 35.29% (r51-w18) when rated 70+ (1 faller)
* Warwick record; r48-w16-p15, record in this contest r10-w5-p3 (r4-w1-p1 with ex-flat debutants)
* Tom Cannon 10.4% SR, 96.9% CR FTO, 6-33 juvs Alan King FTO, all Alan King 802-108 13.47%
Horse
* 57,000gns Tatts December Foals
* Beaten no less than 6l on first four starts at 2yo
* Improved keeping on 3rd in 1m Kempton nursery before closing season with win in similar contest off 70
* Narrowly failed to win at Doncaster 1m2f off 76 on reappearance
* Matched effort on penultimate outing at Windsor when rallying to reclaim 2½l 2nd over 1m3½f – form not working out
* Three month break, never better than midfield when last seen at Kempton 41 days ago
* Should stay, no real temperament concerns, possible preference for good ground

Lemon Ice chf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (61) 69 j1-0-0 (-) 61 57
Mastercraftsman (Galileo){8-f}(0.60) 2/2 Next Bend 122 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (104), Navan 2017
Breeding
* Mastercraftsman 25-93 26.88% WR (3rd highest number of winners since 2004/05 behind Galileo and Montjeu)
* Cousin a fair winner (above), half-siblings Crecerelle and Abstract winless in 16 combined over jumps. 4/4 Cerberus
Trainer
* Sean Curran 3-23 13.04% WR | 0-22 FTO, 2-13 15.38% 2TO
Source
* ex-Johnny Murtaghs 1-18 5.56% WR
Horse
* Sole instance of finishing within 9l of winner came on penultimate flat outing when ½l 3rd of 10 in 1m5f Down Royal handicap off 63
* Only runner in field with hurdling experience, which came in Stratford Maiden four weeks ago
* 14/1 (28/1 at one point in morning), in rear, in trouble halfway and detached shortly afterwards, stayed on for 43l third behind two subsequent winners
* Hopped at a couple but not offensively bad at jumping. Still needs considerable improvement here.

Strong prospects
1. Non Stop
Reasonable prospects
2. Charles St
3. Victory
4. Romancero le Dun
Feasible prospects
5. Forward Flight
Moderate prospects
6. Lemon Ice
Negligible prospects
7. Vaxholm

[Colin Phillips]

Thanks, BH.

[IanDavies]

Charles St for me.

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[IanDavies]

“Strong prospects
1. Non Stop”

BH sometimes says these aren’t tips.

Well, to paraphrase Damon Runyon, “if these aren’t tips they will do until tips come along.”

18/1 – Betfair SP 27.45.

GENIUS.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Bachelors Hall]

Thanks Ian :)

If nothing else, I think I have finally shaken that Hill Station silks carrying monkey off my back, which feels better than I would like to admit!

Oddly enough, I have no problems with being called a “genius”, or even a “god”. But “tipster” does make me uncomfortable. Still, you retrained yourself from mentioning the £98 trifecta, which is appreciated :)

MUSSELBURGH – 2nd NOVEMBER
Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate across all juveniles is 9.51%, winner-runner 19.37%, improvement rate 37.08%, clear round 96.12%

Race History/Stats
* Ran as maiden since 2019, juvenile held on card since 2012, no race 2017
* Average seasonal winning RPR 115.39 (-2.93 cf. standard)
* Most notable winners – Sir Chauvelin (2015: 3.Scottish Triumph, 3. Summit), Collingham (2021: 2.Chatteris Fen), both owned by Jimmy Fyffe; not represented this year.
* Winning DI 0.86 much lower than course average
* Six of nine runnings won by debutants (SR 18.75%), all of whom rated 76+ on flat

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, right-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.33 (+0.06 cf. standard) – much lower in this contest
* Clear round 96.06% (+0.20% standard) – Very average
* Clear round rate for newcomers 96.95% – top ten of fair hurdling tracks relative to experienced horses
* Front runners hold discernible advantage

Ground & Pace
* Good to soft, chance of rain overnight, heavy rain forecast by midday.
* My Brother Jack made running on both hurdles starts to date and has no obvious challenger for lead

My Brother Jack bg Ollie Pears f9-1-0 (53) 60 j2-0-2 (111) 108 115
Decorated Knight (Sri Pekan){19}(0.71) 2/2 Zeloso 90 1st 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle (85), Hereford 2002
Breeding
* Decorated Knight first crop. DI 0.73, Height 1.65m (good), 3×1.G1 inc Irish Champion Stakes.
* 22/32 Galileo sires produced winning juveniles, 27.46% WR as grandsire
* Sri Pekan 2/25 WR as damsire. Family of Acropolis (2/2), M-Lolshan (3/1) and Vinnie Roe (3/3)
* Close relatives achieved little over hurdles, cousins Head Gardner and Zeloso won at minor level
* Half-brother “Dubs” currently lives in Greater Manchester and is a very silly boy; doing his legs in after jumping out of his field and going on a mad gallop. Thankfully his bandages are off now, and observers noted that if he had something to jump, he probably would have won a race or two…
Trainer & Jockey
* Prior to My Brother Jack, Ollie Pears had 6 juvs race 9 times without any collecting prizemoney; although none had fallen or unseated
* Brian Harding 9/48 18.75% SR on juvs at Musselburgh; inc. from front on Fiveandtwenty (x3), Project Bluebook, Forth Bridge and Rutherglen. Prominent on others.
Horse
* Gelded prior to debut and winless in 8 prior to winning 5-runner 1m6f Wolverhampton Handicap off 52
* 25/1>50/1 morning, started 33/1 on hurdling debut in Sedgefield maiden late September. Somewhat warm beforehand
* Raced enthusiastically from front without pulling too hard, disputed along back, readily left behind by winner approaching last but battled gamely for second
* Jumped quick and neat with only minor errors at third and seventh
* Winner produced arguably strongest form seen to date in France next time, third previously second to subsequent valuable US winner, fourth easy winner at Wetherby nto
* Returned for another Sedgefield maiden 17 days ago, starting steady 9/4 second favourite
* Made running once again, setting stronger pace than on debut
* Headed approaching last, did not go down without fight. 102 flat-rated perhaps had bit more than 2¼l in hand
* Winning pace and time creditable compared to maiden hurdle on card (2nd rated 114)

Noble Anthem bg Archie Watson f6-2-0 (86) 92
Starspangledbanner (Montjeu){13-b}(0.60) 2/1 Changing The Guard 148 1st 2m½f Handicap Chase (137), Newton Abbot 2014
Breeding
* Starspangledbanner 4/11 36.36% WR, 57.14% IMP set to increase
* Montjeu 2nd only to Galileo for winners and leader for wins as sire. 24.32% WR as damsire
* Family of Spinning Queen (2/1 – 1.Sun Chariot), Nephew of Changing The Guard (above) and Shannon Springs (1.3mMdH). 2/2 Braganza, 3/1 Monasteroris
Trainer
* Predominantly a flat trainer (won Champions Sprint with Glen Shiel), 17/55 all jumps runners (30.91% SR)
* Sole juvenile, Alazwar, was Shadwell dispersal who won junior bumper on debut before 3rd in maiden hurdle on only start
* Latest two hurdlers were winners (Fakenham and Carlisle last week)
* Former inmates have 3/10 WR in juvenile hurdles, Noble Anthem highest rated by 5lbs
Horse
* Green when 9th on debut in Wood Ditton.
* Still green but ultimately won with bit to spare second time out in 1m Thirsk novice; 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th won within next three starts
* Not disgraced when 4th of 14 behind Eldar Eldarov at Newcastle, then won 5-runner 1m2f (gf) Ayr handicap in early July off 85; edged slightly under pressure but still battled well against experienced rival
* Was kicking off at start before running no race in first time cheekpieces back at Ayr later that month
* Gelded and better behaved when last seen at Kempton five weeks ago but still ran flat in finishing a 10l last of 13
* Withdrawn from Tattersalls Autumn HIT sale last week

Soleil de Cannes Iain Jardine f1-0-0 TF41 j2-0-1 89 92+
Quick Martin (Alhaarth){1-l}(0.60) 0.5 Carlain 67.0 3rd Prix Ferdinand Dufaure (G1,4yC), Auteuil 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/soleil-de-cannes
Profile written for prospects piece
Making his racecourse bow on the all-weather at Chantilly in February, Soleil de Cannes was slow away and lacked the pace to pass any rival before finishing tailed off. Three weeks later, he took in the division’s curtain raiser, the Prix d’Essai des Poulains, at Compiegne. His starting price of 77/1 reflected his form and profile, although his pedigree is more befitting of a jumper. First crop sire Quick Martin’s career highlight was a second in a four-year-old conditions hurdle at Auteuil, although he is a half-brother to smart sorts Oklahoma Seven and Sierra Nevada. In one of breeding’s oddities, the distaff side is actually more compelling as Soleil de Cannes’ half-brother, Carlain, finished third in the Champion Chase for four-year-olds while uncle Honneur Au Roi won listed chase for four-year-olds at Enghien. In his Compiegne bow, Soleil de Cannes finishing a near forty length eleventh was in keeping with his starting price. Racing just behind the leaders, he was slow and awkward at times and while he was still in contention leaving the back, was badly outpaced when the race developed before being allowed to come home in his own time. Gelded afterwards, he returned to Compiegne at the end of March in calmer waters for a claiming hurdle. A 14/1 shot in a field of seven, he was held up in touch but still given to big and slow jumps throughout his round. He found himself outpaced once again but managed to improve from sixth to second between the final two flights before finishing four lengths clear of the remainder without posing the remotest threat to the winner. After the race, Soleil de Cannes was claimed for €23,506 by Tobias Jones to join an as yet unnamed British trainer. Those brought out of French jumps claimers have a perfectly respectable winner to runner rate of 25.64%, and former trainer David Windrif has been responsible for four exported juveniles including the winner Un Guet Apens. Soleil de Cannes’ form is difficult to rate much higher than 90 at this juncture, although the claimer was given something of a boost when the fourth placed Jeu Tentant won a Fontainebleau claimer next time. There may be a moderate enough race for him during the early season, although he shapes as though likely to eventually do better in handicaps over further.
Update
* Since joined Iain Jardine for £25,000 via Charlie Mann at the Goffs UK Spring sale
* Form looking better than at time, with winner Jereviendrai winning a listed chase, 4th placed Jeu Tentant adding Auteuil and Compiegne claimers to his tally, and the 5th also winning a couple of races
* Iain Jardine 3/21 14.29% WR, 1/20 SR first time out. Yet to saddle ex-French recruit in division
* Only trainer in line-up with winning juv at Musselburgh; albeit at rate of 1 from 19
* Three wins and two places from last seven runners on flat

Ancora bf Ewan Whillans Unraced
Amaron (Law Society){20-c}(2.27) 1/0 Ajesha 2x1st 4500m Listed Chase, Baden-Baden 2007
Breeding
* First UK/IRE juvenile for Amaron, 1/4 WR with French 3yo jumpers; Piste d’Etoiles won minor race at Jarnac
* 1.64m (decent height) DI 2.00, 9×1.between 7 and 9f including G1 at San Siro. Cousin of 5 winning jumpers including Luxstar (3.Robert Lejeune)
* Shamardal 21.54% WR as grandsire
* Law Society 8/34 23.53% WR as damsire. Dam won pair of listed chases in Germany
* Niece of Apollo Star (multiple group winner over mile in Germany), jumpers Aratan and Areal appear at 4/2 on damline
Trainer
* First juvenile for Ewan Whillans, who took over from father Alistair. Alistair 0/14 WR in division, 100% CR
* Ewan without winner for 32 days
Horse
* Unraced, cost £12,000 at Goffs Yorton Sale in 2021

Silver Vision grf Stuart Coltherd f8-0-0 (50) 64 j2-0-0 (-) 78 75
Muhaarar (Pivotal){8-d}(1.11) 0.5 Cubomania 148 2nd Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (A,139), Fairyhouse 2019
Breeding
* Muhaarar 2/10 WR, 16.67% imp
* Half-sister to useful Cubomaina; effective on all ground up to 2m4f
* Other jumps relatives inc. (2/2) Coldstream, (2/3) Battling Bessie, (3/3) Brazil, (4/2) Diakali, (4/3) Divapour
Source
* ex-Roger Varian 31.25% WR, none with juv RPR exceeding 120, 25% imp
Trainer
* 1/6 16.67% WR; winner Dequall awarded Carlisle handicap running off 97
Horse
* Made debut last Autumn for Roger Varian, finished within 3l of winner at Kempton and Wolverhampton in February (rated 63 for hcp debut at latter)
* Beat one rival from twenty and beaten 26,12 and 33l for Jackie Stephen
* Both hurdling starts came at Sedgefield behind My Brother Jack.
* First-time hood, 66>100/1, held up in touch, began to lose ground leaving back, beaten 31l
* Untidy jump then hampered at second, saddle slipped, pulled up

Strong prospects
1. My Brother Jack
Reasonable prospects
2. Soleil de Cannes
3. Noble Anthem
Feasible prospects
.
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Silver Vision
5. Ancora

[IanDavies]

I shall foolishly take you on with Noble Anthem.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[IanDavies]

The Churchill Lad and Pavlodar for me in today’s two races.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Bachelors Hall]

HEREFORD 8th NOVEMBER
Race History/Stats
* Though there have been fillies maidens at Hereford during the months of August, September and February, only two took place in November (2007 & 2018)
* Giving Glances was the 3/10 favourite when making a winning hurdling debut for Alan King in the latest running
* Giving Glances only juvenile filly to have won a pattern race after competing at Hereford; (the listed fillies’ race at Doncaster)
* Raffles Gitane placed in Cheltenham’s juvenile fillies’ handicap. Norma Hill and Alikat eventually earned RPRs exceeding 130

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, right-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.34 (+0.07 cf. standard), sharper side of average
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR 108.73 – sixth lowest in UK
* Clear round 95.31% (-0.75% standard) – lower third in UK/IRE
* Clear round rate for newcomers 90.67% – fourth lowest in UK
* Front runners hold discernible advantage
* ex-French hurdlers have 35.71% SR; 6th of 39 UK/IRE courses with 10+ runners
* ex-French hurdlers making their UK debuts as juveniles; 3 wins from 6 (Star de Mohaison, Giorgio Quercus, Raffles Gitane)

Ground & Pace
* Good, good to soft in places, showers overnight, rain in morning
* Couple have raced close but Cianciana only made running on one occasion, La Referi led for 2f on sole start – could be speed test if none take initiative

Cape Helles bf Donald McCain f5-1-0 (73) 77 j1-0-1 (-) 96 101
Australia (Danehill Dancer){6-e}(0.63) 0.5 Evening Hush 129 2nd Finale Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Chepstow 2016
As far as juvenile hurdling damlines are concerned, Cape Helles possesses one of the more appropriate ones for the division. Half-sister Evening Hush finished second in the Grade One Finale Hurdle, cousin Wolf Prince finished second in the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle, and another cousin, Sonoran Sands, won twice in the sphere. Basalt (2/1), Fleeting Moment (2/2), Sayeh (3/1) and Hired Hand (3/1) are other successful closely-related jumpers. Sire Australia also has a solid record in the division with a 22.73% winner-to-runner rate from his first three crops. Cape Helles was unraced as a two-year-old and started her career in a Newcastle maiden over a mile in March. Starting at 20/1, she was unsuited by the trip and pace, but emerged with some credit in failing by a short-head to grab third. The following month at Haydock over the same trip, she ran to a similar level but was unable to take advantage of her prominent position at the head of a muddling pace; fading to finish a nine-length seventh behind Nashwa. Cape Helles broke her duck at the third time of asking in a nine-furlong Carlisle maiden towards the end of May. The subject of strong support throughout the day, starting at 17/2 having been 50/1 during the morning, Cape Helles broke well and while having to be niggled along early on, was able to race in a handy position. Turning for home within striking range, she took the lead off the better travelling favourite approaching the final furlong and stayed on to hold her rival by three-quarters of a length at the line. Though Cape Helles showed a likeable attitude in front, the runner-up almost certainly failed to give best. While the remainder of the field were upwards of five lengths behind, the performance did not warrant a rating of 77 and this played out in her two subsequent outings in handicap company. She was not disgraced at Ripon next time as despite her being beaten seven lengths, raced prominently in a strongly run race from which the first and third won next time out. However, she did finish weakly ten weeks prior to her hurdling debut when an eight length last of five at Doncaster in a twelve furlong fillies’ contest. Cape Helles spent her flat career with Donald McCain, and became the twelfth such horse to go juvenile hurdling; among which she is the third highest rated behind Navajo Pass (85) and Goobinator (82). Three of the previous eleven won during their juvenile campaigns (the two aforementioned along with the 63 rated Ormesher) and all three would also do so at the first time of asking. All told, she had a promising profile ahead of her hurdling debut at Market Rasen forty-five days ago. Based on the yard’s record with self-trained hurdling newcomers, the ten week absence ought not have been a major concern; even if that record improves with race fitness. Cape Helles had plenty going for her on pedigree and was not harshly treated in what was a modest renewal of the Class 2 contest. Furthermore, Donald McCain’s record with juvenile newcomers at Market Rasen stood at two wins and three placings from eleven and with the yard absolutely flying at the time, a good showing would have come as no surprise. The market echoed these sentiments as she was backed from an opening show of 7/2 to 15/8 at the off. However, her performance was a rather disappointing one. Tracking the leading pair off a solid tempo, Cape Helles was the last one to hang onto the winner leaving the back, and was just within a length passing the three furlong pole before beginning to struggle; ultimately faltering on the run-in to lose second place and finish nearly nine lengths behind the winner. She travelled comfortably enough and though slow at the second and close at the fourth, put in a reasonable round of jumping. The winner has since been bitterly disappointing on her two subsequent outings, and the time does little to suggest that the race was any better than average. Coming into this race with disappointing efforts to her name, finishing weakly on each occasion, Cape Helles has questions to answer. However, the potential pace set up of this race does afford her profile some respite.

Cianciana chf Brian Ellison f15-2-4 (67) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 98 105
Cityscape (Three Valleys){1-w}(1.00) 2/1 Duke Of Bronte 125 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Hurdle, Doncaster 2022
Breeding
* Cityscape 0/12 WR, 0/29 SR, 2/6 33.3% IMP
* Three Valleys 1/4 WR, 2/2 IMP
* Family of Boreas (3/1), niece of winning jumpers Duke Of Bronte and Taws, placed jumper Mandatum 3/1
Trainer
* Brian Ellison 30.43% WR
* Self-trained recruits rated 62+ 17.65% SR first time out, 21.43% SR second time out
Horse
* 15 races on flat, starting over 5f last June
* Off the mark on fifth attempt in Newcastle nursery last December over 1m off 52
* Runner up on four of next seven outings, including on turf in 1m2f handicaps at Nottingham and Newmarket off 59
* Doubled tally when landing Newcastle 1m2f handicap off 62, responding well for pressure to win by 1½l
* Unsuited by slow pace at Redcar and outclassed under overweight in racing league final flat start.
* Minimum trip no concern, settles when solid pace, can wander but responds to pressure
* Made hurdling debut at Sedgefield three weeks ago in maiden won by yard with newcomer in 2019
* Steady 7/1 4th fav of 10, started in midfield but jumping errors cost her ground; hopping, skewing and going to right
* Stayed on past beaten horses straight to finish 5l third, somewhat flattered by proximity to Scriptwriter (rated 102 on flat) and My Brother Jack (runner-up either side)
* Should have learned and may do better going right handed

Dixon Cove bf Paul Nicholls j3-0-3 (65.0) 120 121+
Earl Of Tinsdal (Dansili){19-b}(0.82) 2/1 The Giant Bolster 168 3rd Cheltenham Gold Cup (G1), Cheltenham 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/dixon-cove
Profile from prospects piece
Since 2004/05, Paul Nicholls has had 189 juvenile hurdlers under his care, coming from a vast array of sources. Six were fillies who gained hurdling experience in France, with five of those winning at least once during their initial campaigns; including Malaya – landed the 2017 Wensleydale and finished second in the Adonis, R de Rien Sivola (2nd 2008 Prestbury), Pepite de Soleil (2nd 2008 Finale), and Bold Fire (2nd 2006 Victor Ludorum). The latest Ditcheat requisition, Dixon Cove, will be their first from Philippe Peltier; a trainer whose six exported juveniles resulted in three winners headed by Balder Succes, and Tout est Permis. Dixon Cove has an interesting, if peculiar, pedigree for a juvenile hurdler. Sire Earl of Tinsdal was a three time Group One winner over middle distances in Germany and Italy. Like his sire, Black Sam Bellamy, Earl of Tinsdal stands at an imposing 16.2hh and also has form on heavy ground. A nephew of placed hurdlers in Central Europe, Earl of Tinsdal has had few representatives under either code, although he did get his first jumps winner in July when Roxalagu won at Bad Harzburg. On the distaff side, Dixon Cove’s most compelling relative is her uncle The Giant Bolster; twice placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and another son of Black Sam Bellamy. Prior to this year, Shanandoa (2/1), who took low grade handicaps at Stratford and Uttoxeter, was the only other winning jumper although there have been two more three-year-olds this term in Moon Dawn (2/2) and Winteriscoming (3/2). Dixon Cove herself has yet to find the winners enclosure, but has reached the frame at Auteuil in all three outings to date. Her first racecourse appearance came in March for the Prix Auricula; a debutants contest which has been used as a launchpad for the likes of Tarla, Pepite Rose, Gitane du Berlais, Elimay and Stormy Ireland. Sent off amongst the outsiders in a field of twelve, Dixon Cove was held up in rear and her early jumping was marked by big and cautious leaps. She became more fluent when taking a midfield position along the back; a position she still held turning for home. Little ground was made on the leaders between the final two hurdles, although the field did dissipate around her and despite an ungainly style under pressure, was able to snatch a near five-length third at the line. With none of the first five home starting at single-digit prices, the form did not look strong at the time and while the sixth won at Dieppe next time, the winner finished some twenty-five lengths behind Gala Marceau on her second outing. Dixon Cove’s second outing came in the Prix Champoreau; a conditions race in which the aforementioned Malaya finished second in 2017. Starting the 2/1 second favourite of six, Dixon Cove was once again held up towards the rear and though more confident over the first three flights, she was steady and close at the fourth. While big when reaching at the next and landing steeply, the pace was such that she was vying for second place along the back and was within a length of the lead over the penultimate flight. While she managed to get the measure of the pacesetter after the last, she never managed to hit the front herself; although with the rail to help, she did regain second place on the run-in and finished within a length of the winner. Dixon Cove’s final outing came in the third week of May for the Groupe III Prix Sagan. The focal point of the fillies’ Spring season, the Sagan has been contested by useful exports in Tarla, Sway, Kotkikova and Elimay, as well as Cambaceres winners Chimere du Berlais and Tanais du Chenet, and Roll On Has who would take the Alain du Breil. This year’s renewal was not a vintage one; as per the absences of Gala Marceau and Panther du Berlais along with the fact that the only previous winner in the line-up did so in a claimer. Sent off the 3/1 favourite of eight, Dixon Cove took up her customary position towards the rear and made minor errors along the way such as hopping and being slow away from several flights. She was in touch rounding the final bend but a slow jump to her right at two out exacerbated her lack of pace. Another awkward jump at the last left her treading water, although she did manage to reclaim an eleven length third close to the line. The first two since upheld the form to a degree in the listed Prix d’Iena; finishing second and third while giving weight to the winner. Much like her new stable companion Blueking d’Oroux, Dixon Cove brings French form which, while good, places her behind some of the best in the division. There is nothing preventing her from mixing it in decent company and the shedding of her maiden tag in an ordinary race looks assured. Notwithstanding, based on her pedigree and all racecourse evidence to date, Dixon Cove would more likely be one with the long-term in mind.
Update
The Prix Sagan form is not leading the way in France, but it still has a place at the head table of the fillies’ division. The front pair (Villa Rica and Angela du Berlais) filled the first two in the Groupe III Prix Magne, while fourth placed Rose Secrete won a minor chase at Segre. As per recent stable tours, Dixon Cove is being aimed for the Listed Fillies’ Juvenile at Aintree (a race in which the yard’s Malaya finished second) and she would have much the strongest chance of the home contingent based on everything seen to date. Nicholls has won 21 from 52 in past fortnight while Harry Cobden has a 30.7% SR with juveniles. Pace has potential to be a concern but holds a significant class advantage.

Highland Lass chf Richard Price f4-0-0 (10) 0
Highland Reel (Dubawi){4-k}(0.79) 2/1 Crazy Queen 89 5th 2m 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2016
Breeding
* First crop sire Highland Reel has had two winners from six to date. Dubawi has a 33.33% WR as both a sire (5/15) and a damsire (7/21)
* Despite strong sirelines, damline is moderate. Sole nearby jumper (above) unplaced in 12 starts.
Trainer
* Richard Price has 1/11 WR, In The Crowd (ex-Alan Swinbank) winning twice in 2012/13 (Warwick 2nd start, Wincanton Handicap on 4th)
* 3/5 (60%) improved on flat rating as juveniles
Horse
* Cost 1,000gns Tatts Autumn 2021
* Failed to record RPR or TF figure in four starts since debut in May, beaten 35, 96, 54 and 37 lengths

La Referi chf Nigel Hawke f1-0-0 (-) 29
Pride Of Dubai (Teofilo){5-f}(1.15) 2/1 Novis Adventus 136 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (119), Worcester 2018
Breeding
* Sire Pride Of Dubai dual G1 winning 2yo in Australia. Sole juvenile to date (Lifetime Legend) runner-up in modest Wetherby contest.
* Grandsire Street Cry 1/3 WR (Estinaad 2013)
* Teofilo 8/32 (25%) WR as damsire, 32.61% WR as sire
* Uncle Novis Adventus three time winning hurdler (started at 5yo), cousin New Reality made winning debut as juvenile for Hawke having left Bolger
Trainer
* Nigel Hawke 18.31% WR, 30% IMP
* 4.29% SR, 90% clear round first time out
Source
* Jim Bolger 25.84% WR, 38.18% IMP
* Bolger>Hawke 7/13 53.85% WR including 50 rated Peat Moss, 50% improvement, 2/13 SR first time (New Reality fortunate winner)
Horse
* Sole flat outing late August, 1m Chepstow novice stakes, wore tongue tie
* Green, led for 2f, weakened at distance, beaten 19l

Outstanding prospects
1. Dixon Cove
Reasonable prospects
.
Feasible prospects
2. Cianciana
3. Cape Helles
Moderate prospects
4. La Referi
Negligible prospects
5. Highland Lass

[IanDavies]

When “sublime” is standard….^

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Colin Phillips]

Agreed, Ian.

[Author]

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