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Inisherin looked good when winning at Ascot, but I thought Regional looked like a step back to 6f is what’s needed. When headed he looked to me like he was going to drop away but rallied well to take second. The 16-1 on offer looks generous to me this race his only future entry.
On a separate note, my namesake Sergeant Cecil has died aged 25. 2005 was a good year for me with his 3 wins in the big staying races. An achievement that will probably never be matched.
Totally agree with you on Regional Sergeantcecil.
I know last year sprinters were not much cop but are this years ? Understandable that people viewed his win at Haydock as maybe a fluke or something, but i think he proved he is a group 1 horse with that last run. I never backed him but he would of won in another half a furlong for me.
Barring injury he is aimed at the race so 16’s is way off, got to be a 6/1 shot if running and the ground is not soft.
Ed Walker saying English Oak bypasses this and goes to the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood instead.
I think thats a mistake from them regarding English Oak but we’ll see. Likely to bump into Kinross at Goodwood, tough nut to crack over 7f, and the usual lottery of Goodwoods round track.
This race is there for the taking because the older horses in historical terms are probably Group 3 horses, maybe Group 2 at a push. The jump from handicap to group at the sprints is minimal, indeed Regional made it last season.
Inisherin was good but the Commonwealth as a race was only slightly better than the Sandy Lane so hes got a bit to prove.
I haven’t looked at who is entered but Ballydoyle have a track record of dropping horses back in trip to this having disappointed over further. River Tiber anyone?
6/1 vandeek is way overpriced if he’s fully fit, inisherin albeit has looked good, in a horrendous division so far
Vandeek if training on (obviously should improve for the run) and doesnt go a walk in the betting on the day, shouldnt be 6/1
Hoping Vandeek shows was the horse I was looking forward to this season hopefully the last run was just a blip.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Inisherin looks a class above. Backed him @ 2/1
Trouble is the jockey has a habit of going too fast too soon. Got away with it at Ascot.
Will River Tiber have a “pacemaker” (spoiler) in there to try and make the prominent runners go too fast? If a prominent runner wins this I think it’ll be Inisherin.
Kinross came on for his reappearance last year and imo has the best chance of the older horses. Expect his jockey to leave it until later this time. Taken 8.8.
Simon Crisford is in much better form now than when Vandeek missed Ascot. There will probably be more runners in this than his Haydock reappearance. More horses to settle behind. If the pace favours hold up horses he’s got a great chance. Jasour would be interesting too, but the softer ground might mean he struggles to stay the trip. Ground conditions probably against Khaadem, Swingalong and Regional too.
Art Power finally gets his ground, but there’s better sprinters around this term. Ditto Mitbaahy.
River Tiber has a chance, but has been outsprinted by both Rosallion and Haatem over further on his last two starts. Disappointed at Ascot and may not appreciate any more rain.
Wouldn’t put it past Mill Stream doing better than his 3rd last time out… with the ground softer than at Ascot.Value Is EverythingInisherin has only improved by 6lbs (BHA) for going sprinting so it wasn’t like he was a bad miler and River Tiber achieved as much in the Irish Guineas as Inisherin did the Commonwealth Cup on pure ability. Inisherin is still open to more improvement but I think hes ended up a sprinter because its an easier division and he probably would have been very competitive at a mile in group company under different circumstances to the strongly run 2000 Guineas which he was helping to force. Indeed Kevin Ryan says he stays further than 6F fine.
If theres an out and out sprinter in here its Vandeek but can they get him back? His bloods were wrong around Ascot apparently but connections are certain hes trained on.
I can’t see beyond the 3yos as they are all very good horses on pure ability and the older brigade are just good without the same scope to improve. Vandeek is the natural sprinter of the 3 so I’d be edging his way but its just a watching race for me and one I’m looking forward to
I see River Tiber has dropped from a mile to 7f to this
Your time is up… the fans have stop.
You didn’t win the crystal AidanUnless….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
TTM,
imo Inisherin can be rated as having improved more than you suggest. ie More than the actual distances back to the placed horses in the Commonwealth Cup.
Looking at the pace of the race he went for home far too soon off an already strong pace. All the others who raced with him (prominently) dropped away. In other words, despite those ridden with more restraint doing much more equal fractions, they couldn’t beat Inisherin who’d done far too much in the first 4f of the race.The last two furlongs were comfortably the slowest furlongs of the race.
If Inisherin goes equal fractions on Saturday he’ll be able to run to a much better form figure than he did at Ascot. However, there are a few front runners in the 5 day decs (plus a possible Coolmore pacemaker / “spoiler”) and so it is possible they’ll go too fast again.
I certainly can not see any fellow prominent runners beating Inisherin. If he does get beat it’ll be a hold up horse.
If Regional and possibly also Swingalong come out due to the ground, that would mean fewer prominent runners and be easier for Inisherin.
Value Is EverythingAs much as 6/1 vandeek was overpriced, inisherin @3/1 is equally that, so ill be adding him in, purely drifting because the crisfords had two winners today… he is by far the best of all of these, excluding vandeek if he has trained on
Significant rain forecast could change who is and who is not value.
I don’t think it makes much difference to the two favourites. Both go on good-firm or good-soft, but both do have flowing actions that might not want softer than good-soft.
But of the rest:
Jasour looks overpriced at the moment, but not if significant rain.
Regional, Khaadem, Swingalong would all be inconvenienced by rain, possibly River Tiber too.
Kinross and Mill Stream it probably doesn’t matter so much, might even help.
Some of the more rank outsiders – Art Power, Mitbaahy, Vadream – the more rain the better.Value Is EverythingArt Power for me at 25-1 each way. I have a soft spot for this horse + I think that he can go well in this
Front / Prominent runner Regional coming out has certainly helped the chances of Inisherin… And there will probably be a tailwind helping prominent runners today.
Amazes me how trainers pull their horses out without waiting until after the first race or two. I know they’ve had 3mm of rain overnight, but that may well only keep it the same as yesterday, if that… And yesterday’s times suggest the ground was GOOD. eg Porta Fortuna for the mile just 0.08 seconds slower than Racing Post standard.
Value Is Everything
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