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It’s a fascinating race Jac, I’m looking forward to it, just hoping for not much rain! good luck!
Times at Epsom suggested closer to true GF than Good, Frenchy.
I agree some courses (Haydock) water far too much, but many also have no option but to do so with incredibly dry ground like Newmarket had this week. Courses are told to irrogate to GF by the BHA.
Not if you look at the whole card and whole race Kev. I think Love and very possibly serpentine are exceptional horses so skews the data a little and we could see it visibly anyway, horses were struggling to make up ground from off the pace
Safe Voyage broke the track record?
Horses struggle to make up ground a lot at Epsom, thats the nature of the track with most of the straight downhill, hence the average FS% of 110%.
Not necessarily over a mile they don’t and safe voyage breaking the track record proves my point, the soft ground lover! I’m not saying it was a bog but it was definitely on the slow side of good…..because they overwatered again
Think golden horde will take all the beating with the ground likely to be on the softer side of good
5/2 is a bit skinny but wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the firm ground horses at the top of the market don’t run
It’s a tricky little race but I’m leaning towards Golden Horde as well but same as you FF he’s a bit skinny in price. I’m not sure Sceptical or HY actually really got home at Ascot. They talked afterwards about HY also getting an entry in the Nunthorpe. In comparison Golden Horde was strong at the finish running a faster last furlong on softer ground than those 2.
Khaadem travelled really well and picked up initially quite strong but then fell away. Suspect obviously it’s ground but could also be fitness .
I think the worst of any rain is tonight so probably still worth waiting for the decs for me
The diamond jubilee looked a terrible race to me
I’d be siding with the 3 year olds
I’d like threat on good ground at the prices but doesn’t look like we will get that
Golden hordes a proper tool, looked a proper sprinter at ascot, really well built, good ground would be fine, should be closer to good than soft come sat afternoon (i think)
Sceptical needs 5
HY probably the danger
Just be watching the race though but i really like the fav
I’ll probably take a chance on Threat there wasn’t much between him and Golden Horde in last years Richmond at Goodwood and he clearly didn’t give his running for whatever reason when they met again in the Middle Park where he was sent off half the price of Golden Horde. I think the standard set by Golden Horde and Hello Youmzain is solid but not outstanding and Threat wouldn’t have loads to find, there’s every chance we have yet to see the best of him.
If it did come up rattling quick Khaadem is a big player I backed him at Ascot and felt he didn’t quite get home over that stiffer 6F, I think if they didn’t already have the standout 5F sprinter in the same ownership they might think about dropping him back at some stage.
Threat is a strange one for me. He travelled arguably as the best horse in the race in the st James palace before not really picking up as well as the others but considering he was first time out I thought they’d definitely give him another chance at a mile. After the Middle Park last year RH said ‘this proves he’s a 7f horse’. I said right at the start of the year Threat will be one of those specialist 7f horses and I’ll be all over him once connections have accepted that.
I’m quite surprised that he’s in here at all if indeed he gets confirmed today.
Can’t really see it, this is the final fact finding mission before they settle on a 7f schedule for the rest of the year hopefully
A lot of rain still forecast though, not sure I really want to get too involved at 2/1 on Golden Horde, not sure he’s that solid.
Not to labour the ground conditions point, but this is what has happened so far(which means it could get worse)
Ground was Good to Firm, they applied 32mm in 5 days to it, was still apparently Good to Firm on the straight.
Tuesday rained 6.5mm – Changed going to Good
Wednesday rained 6.5mm – Changed going to Good to SoftWhat a joke.
In the forecast there is still potentially another 10mm or so, so we could end up on Soft. Would we still want to get stuck in to Golden Horde on Soft at 2/1?
He’s got Pivotal on the Dam side and Lethal Force could run on GS, suggests he should be fine on soft, but do we have any comments anywhere from connections about Golden Horde going fine on any ground?
Just answering my own question!!
Cox thinks Golden Horde is adaptable in terms of conditions, adding: “He ran on some very testing ground in France, at Deauville in the Morny.
“I think nice ground would be in his favour, but he’s proven he’s able to cope with a little bit of ease as well.
“His sire Lethal Force was very much happier on quicker ground, and I’d be hoping we don’t get too much rain if I’m honest, but I’m very much relaxed because he’s as versatile as possible.”
I’m not sure he’s a 2/1 shot is he?!
I would question that it goes all soft by race time. From 10am Friday it is forecast to be largely dry, Saturday will be sunny and warm.
Any ease won’t be ideal for Threat or Oxted or Sceptical. So 5-2 Golden Horde isn’t particularly short if some of his main rivals want it rattling faster and he don’t mind a bit of ease having won well enough at Ascot on good to soft.Hard to know really. He’s blatently shown better form on better ground but he’s not ran much on softer i suppose. The Morny shows he handles it at least.
A rating of 118 but Rory Delargy makes the point that the rating he has been given takes into consideration that he gets a 3yo allowance. So it’s not exactly true that he’s 118 with the extra 3pd taking him to in theory 121.
I am not sure about that but i haven’t looked into the 3yo allowance etc and Delargy is very knowledgable.
I won’t be touching anything in the race until the day i don’t think. The going is too uncertain + is likely to change the make up of the race too much.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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