- This topic has 128 replies, 24 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
Fingers crossed we get some front runner that will at least make it a proper test at 10.5F rather than one of those tactical stop start races with a 4F burn up off the home turn, which will only favour one horse.
Hopefully, they have taken steps to ensure Mishriff actual starts on terms because if he turns up in last year’s form I think we might find out just how good Baaeed is once and for all.
Not looking forward to a continuation of all the absurdly way off the mark Frankel comparisons if he does win (why some pundits/analysts are expecting an explosive performance over this new trip compared to his just does enough to win race history for the life of me I don’t understand) the only true comparison you can make is that Baaeed is on course to run in all the same races Frankel did as a 4 yr old before retirement.
Better horses than Baaeed have been beaten in this race.
That said, you get more shocks when it rains and the ground gets holding.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"https://www.yorkracecourse.co.uk/going-report.html
Don’t see the going changing too much from the current good to firm (good in places) with 2-3mm being added to maintain current conditions, although forecast does say chance of showers Monday/Tuesday so it will depend how much they get but it will likely require significant amount of rain to go to anywhere near holding ground – good (good to firm in place) maybe as slow as it gets.
So there are a couple of options on the pace angle:-
High Definition ran his best race when front running in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but he has had his limitations shown repeatedly so might they actually sacrifice him to set a searching pace to save Point Lonsdale from having to make it himself on his first try beyond 8F?
Alenquer front ran in the Eclipse but being that he looks more of a 12F horse at heart I doubt he will want it to be tactical so he could be handy to ensure the pace is strong or be ready to do it himself.
Weather just a note of caution according to my weather 2 up to 20mm due between Monday evening and race time
Please don’t shot the messenger
Alenquer the value bet imho. Mishriff looks the best at the trip which leaves baaed. You have to take it on trust he will stay. I think he may well do but id rather watch than back. Both aidens dont look good enough though i can see point lonsdale in the first three if any if the front three underperform. Not the greatest renewal if im being honest
Update from myweather2 site predicted rainfall.is only 4mm so they were well out
Suppose its a case of wait and see if thunder storms hitMichael fish signing off
What do we think the best method to get baaeed beat will be for the other jockeys
Go really hard and make it into a real stamina test at 10f?
Or
Go really slow and hope he is a little keen at the slower pace and pulls his chance away?
Things that could beat Baaeed –
1. More rain than is forecast creating that uniquely-holding Knavesmire reclaimed marshland/glacier Good to Soft surface that did for Golden Horn.
2. A strong pace and despite being by Sea The Stars he doesn’t quite see it out.
3. A farcically-slow early pace and a four-furlong sprint where something gets first run on him.
4. He’s below par without showing signs as any horse can be.
5. The simple fact this is the race that even claimed the scalp of the great Brigadier Gerard and unless you’re Frankel (and only Frankel is Frankel) you’re vulnerable in it.
Fascinating race tbh.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"5 good reasons.
6. Maybe he is not that good anyway.
Chindit hardly advertised the form yesterday.
Personally if it turns into a 4F sprint they have played into his hands as I don’t think any of the other horses that have come up from the mile division have that instant gear change that he does to get first run on him.
Although on breeding he should get the trip standing on his head, he shows so much more natural speed than his brother Hukum, so I think an end to end gallop would be the only way (other than massive jockey error) to get him beat especially if there is also a little ease in the ground.
I think High Definition will likely go from the front and Ryan should go haring off (like he did in the Tattersalls Gold Cup when Alenquer only just nabbed him on the line) as the only thing we don’t know is if Baaeed will stay the trip off an end to end gallop and don’t forget this is also 10.5F not 10F so surely you have to test him for something he hasn’t showed he can do yet? Can’t come back in after the race and say, I wished we would have made it more of a test of stamina.
Will be interesting to see how they ride Mishriff, assuming they have sorted out his tardy starting issues will they opt to draft behind Baaeed or commit first from further out and make him chase him down?
When storming home in this race last year, Mishriff led well over 2f out, is in my opinion the best horse Baaeed has faced since OR 125 Palace Pier last year, and, if he gets a decent start (didn’t at Ascot last time out), a clear run throughout (didn’t at Sandown previously) and has a similar racing surface to 12 months ago he will provide a true test for Baaeed.
Mishriff has an OR of 124 – identical to Farhh and St Nicholas Abbey, incidentally – so let’s see if Baaeed can beat him seven lengths on the bridle in cold blood.
In fact, let’s see if Baaeed can beat him at all.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Rain softened ground could get Baeed beat. Otherwise imo nothing.
And don’t forget he is Frankel reincarnated ;o) lol“Mishriff has an OR of 124 – identical to Farhh and St Nicholas Abbey, incidentally – so let’s see if Baaeed can beat him seven lengths on the bridle in cold blood.”
Indeed
It was spine tingling watching frankel loom up on horses of that quality on the bridle and win hard held
St nicholas abbey was a 12f horse so no surprise frankel hamnered him and farrh i think was on tbe decline then. Not dissing frankel but think it has been slightly exaggerated. Still great to watch of course. Little big bears phoenix win was renarkably similar. Remains to be seen if he can do that again.if he does im sure the inevitable comparisons will be made. Tedious imho. Lets just enjoy brilliant horses.
“farrh i think was on tbe decline then.”
I saw him win the Lockinge easily the following May.
In fact, Farhh’s form figures after that race were 2-11 with the 2 being a head second in the Prix Du Moulin.
And St Nicholas Abbey was two-lengths third in the Irish Champion Stakes next time out.
And Frankel has beaten them both by seven and it could have been closer to seventeen if he’d been ridden out.
I’m not into hype, but I’ve never seen genuine Group 1-class horses destroyed the way Frankel annihilated that pair (and Excelebration on other occasions).
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Yes SNA was better at 12F but on his next run he finished 3rd beaten 2L & 3/4L by Snow Fairy & Nathaniel in the Irish Champion Stakes so he was no mug at the distance and Farhh in his next 3 races was 2nd in the Moulin and then the following season won the Lockinge & a soft ground Champion Stakes beating a certain Cirrus Des Aigles.
Frankel’s perennial whipping boy Excelebration (incidentally rated 1lb below Baaeed current Timeform mark) would have been a heralded a champion miler, had his nemesis not been around his CV would have listed the following wins:
2011 Prix Du Moulin
2011 QE2
2012 Lockinge
2012 Queen Anne
2012 Jacques le Marois
2012 QE2Baaeed performance wise has a long way to go to even be mentioned in the same breath as Frankel and The Brigadier for that matter.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.